John Deere Classic: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations
Just one golfer in the top-25 and just two in the top 30 of the Official World Golf Rankings are in the field for this week's John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run, a longstanding event at a staple course on the PGA Tour.
The lack of stars makes for a pretty open field at the top -- but it also alters the way we should be building lineups in daily fantasy golf.
How does all of this impact the process this week? Let's dig in.
You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.
Course Information and Key Stats
Golfers With Great Course History
Golf Win Simulations
Golf Best Bets
Daily Fantasy Golf Picks
TPC Deere Run Course Info & Key Stats
Par: 71
Distance: 7,289 (around average for a par 71)
Fairway Width: 38.9 yards (73rd of 85 courses)
Average Green Size: 5,500 square feet (smaller: 92% of PGA average)
Green Type: Bentgrass
Stimpmeter: 12
Recent Winning Scores: -21, -19, -21, -27, -18
Recent Cut Lines: -3, -4, -3, -3, -2
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (emphasis on Driving Accuracy), Strokes Gained: Putting, Birdie or Better Rate, Total Strokes Gained
TPC Deere Run is a pretty run-of-the-mill course in terms of determining factors that lead to success.
Other than an emphasis on driving accuracy, TPC Deere Run doesn't tend to reward any particular stats over others at a rate too different than the PGA Tour average.
The par 3s are the easiest on the entire tour, and it's an easy place to putt (80th of 85 courses). It's problematic to miss the rough but easy overall to hit the fairways.
Basically, there are numerous ways to get to low scores here, though getting birdie chances will come from hitting fairways and greens, so ball striking is still at a bit of a premium (whenever we can find it).
Golfers With Great Course/Event History
These golfers have the best strokes gained averages (minimum two starts) in recent years at this course.
| Golfer | FanDuel Salary |
Course SG:T/Rd |
2022 | 2021 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Henley | $11,800 | 2.58 | - | 11 | 2 | - |
| Lucas Glover | $8,800 | 2.21 | MC | 1 | 10 | - |
| Dylan Frittelli | $7,700 | 1.90 | 30 | MC | 1 | - |
| Patton Kizzire | $8,500 | 1.63 | 16 | 11 | - | 30 |
| Adam Svensson | $9,300 | 1.51 | 24 | - | 18 | - |
| Ryan Moore | $8,300 | 1.50 | 24 | 2 | 18 | 55 |
| Chris Stroud | $7,400 | 1.46 | MC | - | 4 | 30 |
| Mark Hubbard | $9,200 | 1.36 | 13 | 41 | - | - |
| Seamus Power | $10,100 | 1.28 | - | 8 | 61 | 16 |
| Adam Long | $7,600 | 1.28 | 13 | 23 | 53 | - |
| Keith Mitchell | $11,100 | 1.27 | - | MC | - | 7 |
| Adam Schenk | $10,600 | 1.22 | W/D | 4 | 6 | MC |
| Patrick Rodgers | $9,900 | 1.13 | 30 | 23 | - | 43 |
| Alex Smalley | $10,200 | 1.11 | 16 | 47 | - | - |
| Martin Laird | $7,700 | 1.11 | 30 | 28 | 37 | - |
| Michael Gligic | $7,000 | 1.09 | 10 | MC | - | - |
| Sam Ryder | $8,600 | 1.07 | 60 | 58 | 18 | 2 |
| Chesson Hadley | $8,200 | 1.03 | 10 | 34 | - | 72 |
Past winners in the field include J.T. Poston (2022), Lucas Glover (2021), Dylan Frittelli (2019), Michael Kim (2018), Ryan Moore (2016), Zach Johnson (2012), Jonathan Byrd (2007), and Sean O'Hair (2005).
Win Simulations for the John Deere Classic
Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
| Golfer | FanDuel Salary |
Win% | Top- 10% |
Made Cut% |
FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Henley |
$11,800 | 6.3% | 34.7% | 80.4% | +1400 |
| Denny McCarthy |
$12,000 | 4.9% | 31.9% | 78.7% | +1400 |
| Cameron Young |
$11,900 | 3.4% | 21.1% | 70.6% | +1600 |
| Taylor Moore |
$10,900 | 2.8% | 23.4% | 72.7% | +3000 |
| Emiliano Grillo |
$10,400 | 2.7% | 20.3% | 68.1% | +3000 |
| Adam Hadwin |
$11,400 | 2.7% | 21.4% | 69.5% | +2800 |
| Chris Kirk |
$10,800 | 2.5% | 20.9% | 70.8% | +3500 |
| Stephan Jaeger |
$10,000 | 2.3% | 17.2% | 68.3% | +3300 |
| Nick Taylor |
$9,800 | 2.2% | 20.2% | 70.2% | +4000 |
| Patrick Rodgers |
$9,900 | 2.1% | 17.5% | 66.2% | +4500 |
| Adam Schenk |
$10,600 | 2.1% | 17.8% | 66.0% | +2800 |
| Byeong Hun An |
$9,900 | 2.0% | 14.5% | 61.1% | +4000 |
| Keith Mitchell |
$11,100 | 1.8% | 17.2% | 67.9% | +3500 |
| Alex Smalley |
$10,200 | 1.8% | 15.9% | 66.3% | +4000 |
| Eric Cole |
$10,500 | 1.8% | 17.2% | 68.1% | +3300 |
| Matt Kuchar |
$9,600 | 1.8% | 17.6% | 66.8% | +6000 |
| Brendon Todd |
$9,600 | 1.6% | 16.4% | 64.7% | +9000 |
| Sepp Straka |
$9,700 | 1.6% | 13.9% | 62.0% | +5500 |
| Seamus Power |
$10,100 | 1.6% | 14.6% | 64.5% | +3500 |
| Beau Hossler |
$9,100 | 1.5% | 12.1% | 61.2% | +5500 |
| Kyoung-hoon Lee |
$9,500 | 1.5% | 15.6% | 66.4% | +6000 |
| Doug Ghim |
$9,500 | 1.5% | 12.7% | 60.2% | +6000 |
| Ryan Palmer |
$9,400 | 1.4% | 12.6% | 62.4% | +6000 |
| J.T. Poston |
$10,300 | 1.4% | 12.9% | 62.8% | +5000 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout |
$9,800 | 1.3% | 14.6% | 64.4% | +5500 |
| Mark Hubbard |
$9,200 | 1.3% | 12.7% | 62.7% | +7000 |
| Samuel Stevens |
$9,000 | 1.3% | 12.1% | 59.9% | +7500 |
| Joseph Bramlett |
$9,200 | 1.2% | 12.8% | 62.2% | +6000 |
| Adam Svensson |
$9,300 | 1.1% | 12.1% | 59.4% | +6500 |
| Taylor Montgomery |
$9,700 | 1.1% | 17.5% | 62.3% | +5500 |
| Ludvig Aberg |
$11,600 | 1.0% | 2.9% | 38.5% | +2500 |
| Michael Kim |
$9,400 | 1.0% | 10.2% | 58.2% | +6000 |
| Chez Reavie |
$9,000 | 1.0% | 11.4% | 58.9% | +5500 |
| Dylan Wu |
$8,700 | 1.0% | 10.1% | 59.2% | +6500 |
| William Gordon |
$8,800 | 1.0% | 9.8% | 55.2% | +9000 |
| Akshay Bhatia |
$8,700 | 1.0% | 10.2% | 56.2% | +11000 |
| Sam Ryder |
$8,600 | 0.9% | 12.6% | 62.9% | +11000 |
| Seonghyeon Kim |
$8,600 | 0.8% | 9.6% | 58.6% | +9000 |
| Ben Martin |
$8,900 | 0.8% | 10.3% | 56.4% | +11000 |
| Matthew NeSmith |
$8,400 | 0.8% | 7.9% | 52.9% | +12000 |
| Kevin Streelman |
$8,400 | 0.8% | 10.0% | 58.6% | +11000 |
| Luke List |
$8,700 | 0.7% | 7.2% | 49.6% | +10000 |
| Davis Thompson |
$8,400 | 0.7% | 8.5% | 54.0% | +10000 |
| David Lipsky |
$7,600 | 0.7% | 8.5% | 52.8% | +10000 |
| Lucas Glover |
$8,800 | 0.7% | 7.3% | 51.7% | +6000 |
| Nick Hardy |
$8,500 | 0.7% | 7.9% | 56.0% | +8000 |
| Garrick Higgo |
$8,500 | 0.7% | 6.6% | 49.4% | +10000 |
| Nate Lashley |
$8,600 | 0.6% | 9.7% | 57.1% | +11000 |
| Carson Young |
$8,800 | 0.6% | 7.4% | 51.4% | +10000 |
| Greyson Sigg |
$8,300 | 0.6% | 8.7% | 57.1% | +12000 |
| Callum Tarren |
$8,900 | 0.6% | 6.4% | 48.8% | +8000 |
| Robby Shelton IV |
$8,000 | 0.6% | 9.0% | 57.0% | +20000 |
| Peter Kuest |
$9,100 | 0.5% | 6.3% | 49.4% | +11000 |
| Kevin Yu |
$9,000 | 0.5% | 4.0% | 44.7% | +9000 |
| Aaron Baddeley |
$8,000 | 0.5% | 8.9% | 56.7% | +22000 |
| Andrew Novak |
$8,300 | 0.5% | 5.9% | 49.4% | +12000 |
| Trey Mullinax |
$8,100 | 0.5% | 6.6% | 50.5% | +22000 |
| Chesson Hadley |
$8,200 | 0.5% | 6.8% | 53.8% | +12000 |
| Scott Piercy |
$7,800 | 0.5% | 7.6% | 55.1% | +22000 |
| Gordon Sargent |
$9,300 | 0.5% | 1.1% | 29.6% | +8000 |
| Justin Lower |
$8,600 | 0.5% | 7.1% | 54.1% | +12000 |
| Tyler Duncan |
$7,900 | 0.5% | 5.9% | 48.3% | +17000 |
| Patton Kizzire |
$8,500 | 0.5% | 6.8% | 50.3% | +12000 |
| Zac Blair |
$8,000 | 0.5% | 6.5% | 52.5% | +20000 |
Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets for the John Deere Classic
This field is wide open, according to the simulations. It doesn't leave us with a lot of value, though, in terms of betting.
With how vast the realistic winner pool is both in the simulations and historically with the John Deere Classic, it's a teachable moment -- and we shouldn't force it.
Golfers my model likes at their current odds: Matt Kuchar (+6000), Brendon Todd (+9000), and Akshay Bhatia (+11000).
Names I also like personally while leaning on the model: Russell Henley (+1400), Patrick Rodgers (+4500), Beau Hossler (+5500), and Sam Stevens (+7500).
Early on, it's shaping up as a week with partial units across more names than usual -- or going heavy at Henley.
Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the John Deere Classic
All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.
Best of the Best
Russell Henley (FanDuel Salary: $11,800 | Golf betting odds: +1400) - A co-favorite this week, Russell Henley, is not like the usual favorite we have in a PGA Tour field. He's 29th in the Official World Golf Rankings, and he's not as consistently great as someone such as Scottie Scheffler -- but he is still pretty easily the best process play of the week. Henley leads the field in strokes gained: tee to green and driving accuracy, giving him a strong base for TPC Deere Run, where he has finished T11 and 2nd in two starts since 2019. He has also reeled off four straight top-20 finishes and eight of them in his past nine events.
Stephan Jaeger ($10,000 | +3300) - We can save a lot of salary in a lot of places this week. Jaeger is more of a distance fit than he is when we're seeking accuracy, yet distance itself isn't bad this week. What really jumps out for him is a still-great approach-through-putting profile. Jaeger ranks 19th in the field in strokes gained approach, around-the-green, and putting combined. He has gained strokes on approach in 9 of his past 12 events, too.
Others to Consider:
Denny McCarthy ($12,000 | +1400) - 16th in the field in T2G and 2nd in putting.
Chris Kirk ($10,800 | +3500) - 6th T2G among the field.
Emiliano Grillo ($10,400 | +3000) - Good ball-striker.
Mid-Range Picks
Mark Hubbard ($9,200 | +6000) - A short hitter, Hubbard gets elevated at a course such as this one. He ranks first in the field over the past 50 rounds in strokes gained: approach and is 45th in accuracy (115th in distance). Hubbard was T13 here a year ago and T41 in 2021. Getting access to the best iron player in the field is hard to pass up at a salary like this.
Beau Hossler ($9,100 | +5000) - While I don't like to target golfers with bad irons, if there's a week and a field to do it, this is an okay time to do it. Hossler is a really good golfer relative to this field. He ranks 18th in strokes gained: off the tee, 20th around the green, and 32nd in putting. Hossler has a T26 here in 2019 despite poor iron play. There's some risk here because of his approach play, yet we can also note that he striped it well at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Others to Consider:
Nick Taylor ($9,800 | +4000) - 2nd in the field in strokes gained: approach through putting.
Matt Kuchar ($9,600 | +4500) - Great course fit for Kuchar.
Adam Svensson ($9,300 | +6500) - Top-25 here two straight years; top-40 putter and T2G stats.
Low-Salaried Picks
Chez Reavie ($9,000 | +5500) - One of the best iron players in the field (4th), Reavie benefits from the short-ish course (135 in distance and 12th in accuracy). He is a top-tier putter, as well, giving him great stats in the two most important stats for upside.
Dylan Wu ($8,700 | +6500) - Wu is top-25 in both strokes gained: tee to green and putting, and that alone makes him a target in this salary range. He finished T43 here last year in his debut at the course while ranking first in the field in strokes gained: approach and 64th among cut-makers in putting. That's a combination to target.
Others to Consider:
Sam Stevens ($9,000 | +7500) - The simulation model likes him this week at this salary; 8th T2G.
Will Gordon ($8,800 | +9000) - 22nd in ball-striking; 118th in short game. Potential is there.
Akshay Bhatia ($8,700 | +11000) - Same thing as Gordon: 12th in ball-striking but 134th in short game.
