UFC Vegas 75: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry within the sports world, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of the weekend throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action each and every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. No matter your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout here.

Without further delay, let's break down the 12 fights at UFC Vegas 75: Vettori vs. Cannonier, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday.

Modestas Bukauskas (-194) vs. Zac Pauga (+156)

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

I can't remember a more bizarre two-fight UFC sample than Zac Pauga's. I still have no clue where he stands.

Pauga was dominating heavyweight Mohammad Usman (2-0 UFC) before a flash knockout by the brother of the former champion. Then, in his first bout at 205 pounds, he pressed Jordan Wright (2-5 UFC) against the cage with ease, landing 67% of his significant strikes. The problem is Wright's fights were mostly at 185 pounds, so the strength was a given.

On the other hand, Modestas Bukauskas' "triumphant" return to UFC didn't show much despite the win. He had a -1 striking differential and defended just one of Tyson Pedro's three takedown attempts. Pedro's own exhaustion led to abandoning his wrestling, allowing Bukauskas to squeak out the "W".

This is an extremely volatile, low-level fight. My stuff, of course, loves the positive analytical profile of Pauga at these odds, and I don't have any real concern he won't hang around in this fight with a chance to win it. Bukauskas hasn't recorded a knockdown in five career fights.

Betting Verdict: I work too hard for my money to bet on this fight, but Pauga's per-minute stuff is excellent, and Bukauskas has no power when that's been his one vulnerability in UFC thus far. It's interesting.

DFS Verdict: Bukauskas has topped 50 FanDuel points once. It was a controversial doctor's stoppage in 2020. This was an easy process punt to Pauga ($11) on a tough week for 'dogs.

Ronnie Lawrence (-194) vs. Dan Argueta (+156)

Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Ronnie Lawrence's jump in competition level didn't go as planned.

"The Heat" faced Saidyokub Kakhramonov (2-1 UFC), who has since departed the promotion for a pay raise. Kakhramonov battled the ranked Said Nurmagomedov before bolting, so the loss, ceding 10 takedowns, is quite forgivable as he steps back to a more normal task.

Lawrence himself still averages 7.03 takedowns per 15 minutes with tremendous 77% accuracy despite being bested by Kakhramonov at his own game. Dan Argueta will attempt to do the same, and he's undefeated professionally in this weight class.

Argueta averages "just" 2.50 takedowns per 15 with 55% accuracy, which are good marks in their own right. His counting volume isn't as high due to a late-notice appearance at featherweight in his debut, but that was going the distance with Damon Jackson (5-3-1 UFC).

Importantly, both fighters have a takedown defense at or below 50%. This matchup solely comes down to who the better wrestler is, and these odds might not properly reflect how likely that could end up being Argueta. Dropping in weight, his power could also bother Lawrence, who has ceded a knockdown rate of 1.98%.

Betting Verdict: I see this as a total dog-or-pass scenario. Lawrence's competition level is slightly better, but he hasn't actually beaten a fighter of Argueta's caliber. The 29-year-old is also ascending a bit more than Lawrence (32).

DFS Verdict: Lawrence has piled up takedowns in a hurry, but he's also been flattened onto his back without issue. One of these guys should be relevant in DFS on the strength of takedown volume. I prefer Argueta ($12).

Tereza Bleda (-250) vs. Gabriella Fernandes (+198)

Women's Flyweight (125 pounds)

We've definitely got a bit of a wild card here when both of these ladies were dominated in their promotional debut.

Tereza Bleda had a -27 striking differential against Natalia Silva, culminating in a vicious knockout loss in the final round. Gabriella Fernandes spent north of 11 minutes in the grasp of the now-ranked Jasmine Jasudavicius. We'll see what either has for this second appearance.

Bleda's wrestling stats are pretty underwhelming when she's projected to be the heavy favorite. She's landed just 1.13 takedowns per 15 on pitiful 26% accuracy, and this is including her Contender Series debut when not facing Silva. However, she's 21 and likely improving significantly with each fight camp.

This is a low-level scrap that entirely hinges on Fernandes' 50% takedown defense and general takedown recovery. She simply couldn't get away from Jasudavicius. Bleda brings similar athletic tools to the table with less experience, but she's also far more aggressive with submission attempts (1.1 per 15) and elbows from the top.

Betting Verdict: I love under 2.5 rounds (+126) as my official bet here. It's a great number to encapsulate Bleda's aggression from top positions and Fernandes' likely opening if she gets tired.

DFS Verdict: Bleda is a risky MVP option at $22. She could have a ton of empty control time in this one, or she could pile up points in a dominant, first-round stoppage. I think she's better suited for flex-spot darts. Fernandes will have the clear striking edge at a low salary ($9).

Denys Bondar (-122) vs. Carlos Hernandez (+100)

Men's Flyweight (125 pounds)

As one of Malcolm Gordon's more staunch supporters, I didn't see Denys Bondar's debut as the grave disappointment many did.

He landed an early takedown before an unfortunate, freak arm break simply trying to support his own weight. Bondar's own ability is pretty solid with Sambo, amassing 10 of his 14 pro wins via submission. The Ukranian appears to be the latest in the country's line of successful grapplers in UFC.

He's certainly got an interesting draw against Carlos Hernandez here. Hernandez's early split decision with Victor Altamirano (3-2 UFC) was a solid result, but he was easily submitted by Allan Nascimento last fall. Hernandez's 66% takedown defense failed him there; he was controlled throughout.

This line has steamed toward Bondar this week away from a pick 'em. Gordon's continued success in UFC -- against all odds -- proves to give Bondar some hope now that he's healed up and returning. His 72% striking defense should keep him safe until he can get this fight to the mat where he can win it.

Betting Verdict: I nabbed Bondar at -130 on Tuesday for a unit, but this line has now reversed course. I am showing value up to -135 while still factoring in Bondar's durability could very well be an issue.

DFS Verdict: Bondar ($15) has first-round submission upside or could pile up takedowns. In better matchups, Hernandez topped out at 82.8 FanDuel points, so his ceiling with a 0% knockdown rate is pretty limited.

Cristian Quinonez (-148) vs. Kyung Ho Kang (+120)

Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Mexico's white-hot run in UFC was put on pause by Irene Aldana's clunker last Saturday. Can Cristian Quinonez reignite the flame?

Quinonez is certainly getting a lot of respect here after knocking out Khalid Taha (1-4 UFC) last fall in Paris. It was a massive jump from the -2 striking differential he had on the Contender Series against an opponent who still hasn't made it to UFC.

This is another huge jump in ability level to the durable Kyung Ho Kang. South Korea's "Mr. Perfect" has never been finished in UFC, battling Danaa Batgarel (3-4 UFC) to a violent win last June. Kang's excellent 58% striking defense and 70% takedown defense -- in a massive sample -- are two huge reasons why.

I've got to be honest -- if I could talk to Kang personally, I'd be so much more confident in him to pull the upset. This is reminiscent of earlier this year in San Antonio when Steve Peterson -- with a massive edge in experience and a curiously short betting line -- totally imploded and subsequently announced he knew he'd be retiring. Kang is 35 years old and has been off an entire year; if this is his retirement bout, I'd want no piece of him.

Given there's been no real indication of that, Kang's excellent track record should allow him to hang around in this bout for its full duration. Quinonez's 1.05% knockdown rate isn't even as high as Danaa's (1.29%) when the latter was facing significantly tougher foes entering his bout with Kang.

Betting Verdict: I'll have a unit on Kang's ML (+120) entering this one, but this line could move anywhere. I'll be watching it closely Friday. That side correlates well with over 2.5 rounds (-192) since Kang -- never a flamethrower -- hasn't found a UFC finish since 2019.

DFS Verdict: Quinonez's 72.2% regional finishing rate isn't as high as you'd expect given his competition level. In a fight that might be overvalued overall in fantasy, I'll pivot to the underdog, Kang.

Alessandro Costa (-290) vs. Jimmy Flick (+225)

Men's Flyweight (125 pounds)

Jimmy Flick's lack of recent form makes this an odd one.

Flick submitted ranked flyweight Cody Durden in his only UFC bout before a three-year-plus layoff, and his return against Charles Johnson was a clunker. He was pounded out in the first round. Flick's ability is obvious; he's scored 14 of his 16 pro wins by submission and averages 5.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes. It's striking (-1.51 SSR) that's basically a lost cause.

With that, you'd assume Alessandro Costa wins there. Costa was overwhelmed in his debut against the top-five-ranked Amir Albazi, landing just 23% of his significant strikes, but he has defended an excellent 63% of strikes across two UFC-affiliated appearances.

Flick's win probability drops considerably if he can't find a submission, and Costa has never fallen victim to one while earning six subs himself. The younger Brazilian's pace isn't my favorite, but he's the significantly better striker, and Flick has lost five of six in his career by knockout.

At 32 years old, that won't get better for "The Brick". We've seen one-dimensional submission specialists really struggle in UFC in 2023 as the skill level improves across the board.

Betting Verdict: Under 2.5 rounds (-230) is actually showing value for me despite the heavy juice, but Costa by KO/TKO/Submission (-150) can be a roundabout way to access it. I can't see Flick submitting Costa when Albazi couldn't.

DFS Verdict: That aforementioned volatile environment will thrust Costa ($21) into MVP contention, but he's not my favorite given his lack of per-minute scoring upside.

Muslim Salikhov (-188) vs. Nicolas Dalby (+152)

Welterweight (170 pounds)

This is the worst fight aesthetically on the card, but it's an interesting handicap to win it.

Nicolas Dalby dispatched Warlley Alves earlier this year, but the UFC vet Alves has also lost four of his last six fights as is with a -0.88 SSR. Muslim Salikhov will be a much more efficient, disciplined test.

Dalby just isn't super reliable fight-to-fight. His 119 significant strikes landed on Alves were nice, but it was also the first time he's topped 60 in a fight since 2015. Dalby was infamously knocked out as a -330 favorite by Jesse Ronson, who since has dropped to lightweight.

"Danish Dynamite" is now 38, and Salikhov is 39. We're not dealing with spring chickens, so I default to the significantly better striking defense (67%) and takedown defense (77%) of Salikhov. Dalby isn't offensively gifted in a vacuum as is, and his defensive excellence will only exacerbate that problem.

Betting Verdict: Dalby hasn't recorded a UFC win via finish before Salikhov's defensive challenge. I'm showing value on Salikhov anywhere below -500 in the decision-no-bet market on FanDuel Sportsbook. If it goes to the cards, this bet is voided.

DFS Verdict: I likely end up not touching this fight in DFS entirely, but Dalby's pedestrian striking defense (53%) does present at least some upside for Salikhov to find a finish at $17.

Manuel Torres (-188) vs. Nikolas Motta (+152)

Lightweight (155 pounds)

As a one-dimensional striker, Nikolas Motta has his hands full here.

Manuel Torres' stats are bloated from his one UFC bout, which was a quick knockout of Frank Camacho. I've got far more to latch onto with Motta's own UFC efforts thus far. He's landed just 34% of his significant strikes while having a negative striking differential against Jim Miller and Joe Lowry, who hasn't even made the big show.

With six regional wins by submission, Torres could end this fight extremely quickly if he got things to the ground. Motta's 100% takedown defense has held to this point, but even one slip could be the beginning of the end. Motta has zero regional wins by submission to one defeat.

On the feet, Torres' aggression did shine against Camacho, and it wasn't a wild approach. He still defended a comparable 58% of Camacho's strikes to 60% overall for Motta to this point.

There is some volatility in these samples, but Torres' sample is better, he's unquestionably the better ground fighter, and he's got a three-inch edge in reach. This was an easy one.

Betting Verdict: My favorite prop on this entire card is Torres by Submission (+550). Jim Miller didn't even need to attempt a takedown, so we didn't get to see a quality attempt yet. Motta is largely untested there with obvious regional shortcomings.

DFS Verdict: Torres is this card's leading per-minute FanDuel scorer after blitzing Camacho. This should be a wild one with -460 odds to NOT go the full distance. I think there's a clear target with Torres at $17.

Pat Sabatini (-200) vs. Lucas Almeida (+160)

Featherweight (145 pounds)

I'm not exactly sure how Lucas Almeida will pull off this upset, but he's my most confident underdog pick of the week.

Here's where the stats might lie a bit. Almeida defended one of Mike Trizano's two takedown attempts, so a 50% takedown defense is poor, but I'm not actually worried. He's got five regional wins by submission, showing plenty in the grappling department.

To this point, Pat Sabatini's one trick has been top-control wrestling. He averages 3.75 takedowns per 15 with 42% accuracy, but he's put forth less than two significant strikes per minute with it. It's a painful, boring watch.

Even with less UFC experience, Almeida's level of competition is much stronger. On short notice, he fought top lightweight prospect Daniel Zellhuber (1-1 UFC) to a tight decision before blasting Mike Trizano (4-3 UFC) out of there in his divisional debut. He's also never been finished before the final horn.

Sabatini's four wins have come over foes who are 4-9 overall in UFC. He's got not one feather in his cap as strong as Trizano, and he's shown significant issues taking punches from Damon Jackson and Jamall Emmers along the way.

Betting Verdict: Almeida's ML (+160) has gotten a one-unit lay from yours truly already, and I am leaning toward his KO/TKO prop (+310) as an addition when he dropped the durable Trizano twice in his debut. He's huge for this weight class.

DFS Verdict: Sabatini's best FanDuel score, outside of a bizarre fight where Emmers was injured, was 77.6 FanDuel points. Almeida has never been stopped early. This isn't a spot for the favorite whatsoever.

Christian Leroy Duncan (-150) vs. Armen Petrosyan (+122)

Middleweight (185 pounds)

This is phenomenal matchmaking by UFC.

We didn't get to see much of Christian Leroy Duncan in England earlier this year. His opponent, Dusko Todorovic, tore his ACL 112 seconds into the fight. That was set to be a lopsided win for him anyway facing Todorovic's 46% striking defense.

Duncan is a highly acclaimed striking prospect from the U.K., but he doesn't figure to present a ton of grappling danger with just one regional win via submission. That plays right into the hands of Armen Petrosyan.

Petrosyan spent over 10 minutes in control of Brazil's grappling ace Caio Borrahlo (4-0 UFC), but he's largely dominated everyone else. He overcomes a short 71" reach with chopping low kicks and working strikes to all areas of his opponents. His +3.28 SSR comes with excellent striking accuracy (51%) and striking defense (58%).

I like Duncan, but he's proven absolute nada at this level to this point. Petrosyan's two wins are 4-4 in UFC, and he did outstrike Borrahlo. At this point, this number is too friendly to assume his striking prowess doesn't hold against a less-experienced foe.

Betting Verdict: Petrosyan will also get a unit as a +122 underdog in this spot, but the line is moving toward Duncan, so I think I can keep waiting. He hasn't shown much power to this point, so Petrosyan by Points (+260) should always be the default prop.

DFS Verdict: This isn't a bad environment for both guys given we have two strikers with +108 odds to go the distance, but that type of environment almost always favors the underdog as a DFS play even before factoring in Armen's experience edge.

Arman Tsarukyan (-1300) vs. Joaquim Silva (+730)

Lightweight (155 pounds)

While giving a call to Joaquim Silva's toughness, this just isn't a fight that needed to happen.

Arman Tsaruykan outstruck ranked fighters like Mateusz Gamrot and Damir Ismagulov in his last two fights, and the reality is Silva was the only one who'd pick up the phone to fight the emerging Armenian title contender. Tsarykuan went to a decision with lightweight champion Islam Makhachev on short notice. His skills are impossible to doubt.

Silva has lost three of his last five, and a loss here likely still doesn't result in an exit from UFC for giving Tsaruykan an appearance. Analytically, he just doesn't stand a chance when he's amassed a -0.50 SSR against worse foes than Tsaruykan, and his 65% takedown D isn't strong when he's got to hold off Tsarukyan's 10.00 takedown attempts per 15.

The only issue with Arman is that he hasn't exploded for the highlight to justify leaping into the title picture. He went to ugly decisions with Gamrot, Ismagulov, and Matt Frevola. Silva is, unfortunately, fodder for hyping Tsarukyan's next bout, which likely will come closer to the title picture when UFC returns to "Fight Island".

Betting Verdict: I've got Tsarukyan closer to -2500 in this space, but you won't catch me picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer. Tsaruykan's recent decisions might have left a bit of value on a first-round win prop (-120), though.

DFS Verdict: Tsarukyan ($23) is the control at MVP this week. All others are variables. He's winning fights consistently as is to provide the sturdy floor, and this matchup presents upside for a finish. He has topped 100 FanDuel points twice already despite the reputation.

Marvin Vettori (-118) vs. Jared Cannonier (-104)

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Outside of heavyweight, you do not see many top-five contenders encroaching 40 years old like Jared Cannonier.

Cannonier wasn't exactly fading when he closed the 2022 season with a win over Sean Strickland. I scored it for Sean, and Cannonier had a -11 striking differential, but it was close enough to fully respect.

A 2018 shift to this weight division saved his fledgling career, but he's really done it with technical striking. His power is seen as this elite asset, but he's got just a 0.81% knockdown rate in this weight class. That's lower than Marvin Vettori's last opponent, Roman Dolidze (1.68%).

Vettori won some hearts and minds in that fight. He dominated Dolidze, landing 48% of his significant strikes and defending 64% of Dolidze's. Notably, he also stuffed one takedown attempt from Roman, who didn't try again.

Cannonier's offensive wrestling is non-existent, but I'm more worried about his defense for his sake. He ceded three early takedowns to the aging Derek Brunson before Brunson's gas tank expired, but Vettori's tank never has. He's landed 16 takedowns across his last three five-round bouts.

I see this fight as a stalemate on the feet between two great, technical defensive strikers, but Vettori's wrestling is another element that could be a factor in the fight.

Vettori has never even been knocked down (much less out) in UFC, and Cannonier's overrated power is doing a ton of heavy lifting in shortening this betting line when I'd otherwise favor "The Italian Dream" -- who is 10 years younger -- in both domains.

Betting Verdict: This fight should be a tight, ugly decision that leaves folks unhappy. With that the case, this number has shortened to a point where I can snag Vettori's ML, which I've got closer to -140.

DFS Verdict: A full five rounds of work brings both fighters into play, but the elevated FanDuel salaries also account for that. As a much better historical fantasy scorer, Marvin ($19) gets the nod here, too. It'll be my primary way to support him.