DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 9/17/18
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on the DraftKings main slate? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
High-Priced Pitcher
Zack Wheeler ($10,500 on DraftKings): Zack Wheeler has been an absolute beast on the mound as of late. Over his last 10 games, he is averaging 26.9 DraftKings points (DKpts) with an elite 0.81 WHIP and 1.32 ERA. He has seven-plus strikeouts in seven of those games, which is dominant. On the season he has a 24.5 percent strikeout rate, 1.13 WHIP and 3.70 xFIP with a great 25.5 percent hard-hit rate. Wheeler is taking on a Philadelphia Phillies team that has a 24.9 percent strikeout rate, giving him elite upside tonight.
Joe Musgrove ($9,200): Joe Musgrove and the Pittsburgh Pirates are currently -164 favorites, which is the second-largest on the slate. He has a not-so-great 21.0 percent strikeout rate, but a 1.17 WHIP and 3.90 xFIP, which are solid. He's taking on a Kansas City Royals team that only strikes out at the eighth-lowest clip in the majors (20.5 percent). However, their 93 wRC+ ranks 23rd, and they have a team weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .310, which also ranks 23rd. Musgrove may not have the strikeout upside of other pitchers on the slate, but he should cruise to a win.
Low-Priced Pitcher
Framber Valdez ($7,000): Similarly to Musgrove, Framber Valdez is one of the larger favorites tonight at -163. He seems to be getting a bit lucky, as his 2.66 ERA does not match up with his 4.41 xFIP, but through 23.2 innings he does have some solid numbers. He has a 16.9 percent hard-hit rate, 17.2 percent line-drive rate and a 14.1 percent fly-ball rate. Additionally, he has just an 82.1 mile-per-hour average exit velocity and an 88 foot average batted-ball distance which is insane and will obviously level out.
Hitters to Target
High-Priced Hitters
Christian Yelich ($5,900): With an elite .402 wOBA and a very good .257 isolated power (ISO) against right-handed pitching, Christian Yelich makes for an elite play tonight. The Milwaukee Brewers have a 5.02 implied run total (the second-highest on the slate) as they take on Anthony DeSclafani and the Cincinnati Reds. DeSclafani has plenty of stats that would make you want to target him with the Brewers bats tonight. He has a 40.7 percent hard-hit rate and a 37.2 percent fly-ball rate which has led to an 18.3 percent home run to fly-ball rate.
Alex Bregman ($5,500): Alex Bregman has pretty much destroyed left-handed pitching this season. He has put up an elite .412 wOBA and .265 ISO and takes on the Seattle Mariners' Wade LeBlanc this evening. LeBlanc has been alright as indicated by his 1.15 WHIP, but then he brings that back with a 4.47 xFIP versus a 3.56 ERA, which raises some questions about what he really is. His deep fly-balls are concerning, as he has a 42.9 percent fly-ball rate and a 183 foot average batted-ball distance, though his 12.2 percent home run to fly-ball rate isn't terrible. However, the Houston Astros have a 4.73 implied run total, which is the fourth-highest.
David Peralta ($4,900): Over his last 10 games, David Peralta has been a hitting machine. He has put up an elite .371 batting average, and despite hitting just 2 home runs and picking up 8 RBI he has averaged 10.1 DKpts over that time. He has had plenty of success against right-handed pitching this season, with a .254 ISO and a .406 wOBA, and although his matchup against the Chicago Cubs isn't the best, his success against righties makes him worth paying up for. Kyle Hendricks has some solid numbers across the board, but his 22.7 percent line-drive rate is definitely exploitable.
Value Hitters
Kris Bryant ($4,400): I still don't quite understand the pricing of Kris Bryant. I understand that because of injuries he hasn't been able to play as much, but he has been fine when he does play. He's particularly good against left-handed pitching, making his price-tag even more appealing here. He has an absurd .364 ISO to go along with an equally impressive .446 wOBA against southpaws on the year, and will be taking on Arizona Diamondbacks left-hander Patrick Corbin. Corbin is an elite strikeout pitcher, but his 42.0 percent hard-hit and 23.6 percent line drive rates leave Bryant offering big upside in this matchup.
Rowdy Tellez ($4,200): He may only have 22 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, but in those plate appearances Tellez has been unbelievable. Among all hitters with 22-plus plate appearances against righties, he leads the way with a .569 wOBA and a .455 ISO. Of course this is based off of an incredibly small sample size, but he has been very impressive in the big leagues. He's got an elite matchup against the Baltimore Orioles, who will approach tonight as a bullpen game on the mound, even though their relievers have the worst group xFIP in the Majors.
Eddie Rosario ($4,100): Eddie Rosario has relatively modest power with a .213 ISO and a solid .349 wOBA against right-handed pitching. However, he does have a pretty solid matchup against Detroit's Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann has a 1.22 WHIP and a 4.21 xFIP on the year, which are both mediocre. However, his 37.6 percent hard-hit rate, 42.7 percent fly-ball rate, 88.6 mile-per-hour average exit velocity and 194 foot average batted-ball distance have led to a brutal 15.3 percent home run to fly-ball rate.
Ryan Sheppard is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Sheppard also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username donkshow_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
