Bryson DeChambeau didi it again this past weekend.
He has won the first two legs of the 2018 FedEx Cup playoffs and has now built a healthy lead in the official FedEx Cup standings.
Overall, the field has whittled down to the top 70 in points as the PGA Tour heads to the penultimate event in its season: the BMW Championship.
This week, we're returning to a course for the first time since 2011, meaning we have some data on it but nothing that is super recent. What, then, should we know entering the weekend?
Course and Tournament Info
Course: Aronimink GC
Par: 70
Distance: 7,237 yards
Greens: Bentgrass
Fairways: Bentgrass
Rough: Bentgrass
Again, the PGA Tour heads back to Aronimink for the first time since 2011, and other than 2011, we have just one other year of data from this Pennsylvania course (2010). The AT&T National fields here struggled to convert birdies, and this course was top-12 in difficulty relative to par in both seasons.
| Year | Difficulty Rank | Course | Par | Yards | Avg Score | Avg O/U Par |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 4 | Aronimink GC | 70 | 7,237 | 71.218 | 1.218 |
| 2011 | 12 | Aronimink GC | 70 | 7,237 | 70.719 | 0.719 |
The birdie-to-bogey ratio was 11th-lowest on the tour in 2011 (out of 51 courses), and it was 3rd-lowest among 52 courses in 2010. So, saving pars whenever possible is going to be key, and cashing in on the few birdie chances is also going to be important.
The winning scores were -13 in 2011 and -10 in 2010.
There has been a restoration since then, however, and that includes more than 100 added bunkers, larger greens, and wider fairways.
There will be no cut this week, as the field comprises only 70 golfers.
Key Stats
These stats were the most important when looking at splits between the top 25 and the trunk-slammers in the two years on the course.
| Key Stats for the BMW Championship at Aronimink GC |
|---|
| Strokes Gained: Approach |
| Birdie or Better Rate |
| Scrambling |
| Proximity from 175+ Yards |
| Strokes Gained: Off the Tee |
As usual, strokes gained: approach is the most important of the strokes gained stats this week, and off-the-tee play mattered, too. Driving accuracy (62% for top-25 finishers and 57% for cut-missers) and distance (300.4 versus 292.6) popped as important.
Essentially, we need ballstrikers this week, and that includes proximity specifically from 175-plus yards away.
The top-25 broke par on 20% of holes, compared to 10% for those who missed the cut, and from a fantasy standpoint, we need birdies to separate ourselves from the other lineups in a no-cut event.
Course History Studs
We have to take this with a grain of salt because these are nearly a decade old and there are a slew of new bunkers and changes, but the leaders in total strokes gained at this course among golfers in the field are Adam Scott (11.40), Justin Rose (10.52), Chris Kirk (9.40), Jason Day (7.64), Brandt Snedeker (5.64), Webb Simpson (5.52), and Patrick Cantlay (5.40), according to FantasyGolfMetrics.
Rose won in 2010 and finished 15th in 2011. Scott finished third in 2011, while Kirk was eighth. Day finished ninth in 2010.
Again, you probably don't want to factor this in too heavily, but when we're splitting hairs between just 70 golfers, any edge can help.