The Alfred Dunhill Links Championship is turning into one of the premiere events on the European Tour. Here are a few of my favorite picks to do well this week with some value on the betting board.
Hao-Tong Li: We haven’t seen Haotong much since the Open but he made the cut last week in his first event in eight weeks. Haotong is coming in a bit under-the-radar, but I don’t see why that should be the case. Even in his young career Haotong has shown major chops in links events. He burst onto the scene back at Birkdale in 2017 finishing third as a 21-year old making his Open Championship debut. Last year at this event he finished T5 as well, and he also made the cut last year at the Open so he’s shown he can succeed at Carnoustie. Haotong is an elite driver of the ball but not often talked about in that regard. Earlier this year he had FOUR eagles in a single round, and only one of those came on a par-5, not something that can be easily done unless you’re an elite driver of the ball. Haotong ranks 2nd on the European Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee this season.
Bet: To Win (+4800)
Joakim Lagergren: Yesterday in my course preview I highlighted Lagergren as one of the players with solid event history which definitely is a benefit. But what interests me in Lagergren for this week is his recent form. He’s made 4 of his last 5 cuts, with 24th last week as his worst finish outside of the missed cut in that time frame. As a player who seems to be playing well and is coming to an event that he has shown quite a liking to, it’s hard to look past the Swede this week.
Bet: To Win (+8000), Top-20 (+500)
Adria Arnaus: Arnaus was inexplicably not in the field last week at Wentworth. So we know he’s rested and should be motivated after last week’s snub. Adri has been so close throughout the entire season with three runner-up finishes so far. In links events this year he has a T15 at the Irish Open and a MC at the Open Championship. While not spectacular, the T15 is promising. He ranks 3rd on the European Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee for the season -- one of my key stats in yesterday’s course preview -- which is very promising. Adri is just a very promising young talent who seems to be a bit forgotten this week and I can’t really understand why.
Bet: To Win (+9000), Top-5 (+1800)
Brandon Stone: Stone is a really quality links player. He won the Scottish Open last year with a stellar final round. Last year he made the cut in each of the following events: Scottish Open, Irish Open, Open Championship, Alfred Dunhill Links. This year he missed the cut at Portrush but yet again made the cut in the Irish/Scottish stretch. He’s being undervalued given his poor recent form but coming back to a links event, where he has back-to-back top-15s, should light a spark under him.
Bet: Top-20 (+600)
Lucas Herbert: Herbert ranks 57th on the European Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee gaining about 0.3 strokes per round which is very respectable. He also had a great year in links events last year making the cut at Carnoustie for the Open and finishing seventh at this event. A young player who has shown to have high upside over the last few years should be a good value to place well this week.
Bet: Top-20 (+650)
Julian Suri: Suri has not had a great run the last few months, but he is just too talented of a player to continue this run. We finally saw a solid week from him last week with a T31 at Wentworth, and maybe that will kick-start a few good weeks for him. He ranks 31st on the European Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee on the year as well. He’s certainly worth a small investment this week given his talent level.
Bet: To Win (+18000), Top-20 (+900)