Volatility is the name of the game in golf, and picking winners isn't easy. With fields of 150-plus golfers sometimes being separated by how a putt or two falls each week, predicting golf can be absurdly tough.
We'll never be able to capture everything that goes into a golfer's expectations for a week, but we can try to account for that by simulating out the weekend and seeing what happens.
The Process
I'll keep it simple: I track weekly results from the PGA Tour, the European Tour, and the Korn Ferry Tour.
Using a combination of the OWGR's field strength numbers and datagolf's field strength numbers, I adjust each golfer's score relative to the field. The ultimate goal is to place a score from the Waste Management Open, the BMW International Open, and the Knoxville Open on level playing fields. This adjusted strokes metric lets me see how golfers are performing across all tours.
Their adjusted stroke data is combined with their round-to-round variance to see how the field is likely to perform when playing the event out thousands of times.
Here are the results for this week's Shriners Hospitals for Children Open.
Top Win Odds
| Golfer | Wins | FanDuel Sportsbook | Golfer | Wins | FanDuel Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Scott | 5.9% | +1800 | Brooks Koepka | 5.3% | +750 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 4.8% | +1200 | Hideki Matsuyama | 3.6% | +2200 |
| Webb Simpson | 3.2% | +2000 | Bryson DeChambeau | 2.3% | +1400 |
| Collin Morikawa | 2.3% | +3100 | Gary Woodland | 2.3% | +2900 |
| Tony Finau | 2.2% | +2200 | Jason Kokrak | 2.2% | +4800 |
| Chez Reavie | 2.1% | +5000 | Joaquin Niemann | 2.1% | +3100 |
| Jim Furyk | 2.0% | +6500 | Byeong Hun An | 1.9% | +4500 |
| Scott Piercy | 1.5% | +5000 | Jhonattan Vegas | 1.5% | +10000 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 1.5% | +4500 | Adam Hadwin | 1.4% | +4800 |
| Charles Howell III | 1.4% | +5500 | Max Homa | 1.3% | +19000 |
| Andrew Putnam | 1.3% | +6000 | Ryan Moore | 1.2% | +6500 |
| Rory Sabbatini | 1.1% | +8000 | Kevin Streelman | 1.0% | +8000 |
| Dylan Frittelli | 1.0% | +4200 | Kevin Na | 1.0% | +6000 |
| Emiliano Grillo | 1.0% | +8000 | Keegan Bradley | 1.0% | +6500 |
| Ryan Palmer | 1.0% | +8000 | Tom Lewis | 0.9% | +9000 |
This week, 22.8% of the win equity is spread through the top five golfers. Not all of them offer positive value on Golf odds, but one sure does. Just like last week, it's Adam Scott at +1800. Scott has been stellar in 2019, ranking second in the field (1.88) behind only Patrick Cantlay (2.02).
The second-best value pick among the studs -- per the simulations -- is Hideki Matsuyama at +2200. Matsuyama ranks third in strokes gained: approach over the past 50 rounds on the PGA Tour, according to FantasyNational.
If not backing the favorites, there are plenty of values. Among mid-range picks, these golfers pop: Byeong-Hun An (+4500), Jason Kokrak (+4800), Jason Kokrak (+4800), Chez Reavie (+5000), Scott Piercy (+5000),and Jim Furyk (+6500) are also standout betting values on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Punt Plays
With studs and a strong mid-range this week, the full-on punt plays are a bit scarce. However, we can still look to Jhonattan Vegas (+10000), Max Homa (+19000), and Tom Lewis (+9000) for top-20s and longshot winners.