Volatility is the name of the game in golf, and picking winners isn't easy. With fields of 150-plus golfers sometimes being separated by how a putt or two falls each week, predicting golf can be absurdly tough.
We'll never be able to capture everything that goes into a golfer's expectations for a week, but we can try to account for that by simulating out the weekend and seeing what happens.
The Process
I'll keep it simple: I track weekly results from the PGA Tour, the European Tour, the Korn Ferry Tour, and the Japan Golf Tour.
Using a combination of the OWGR's field strength numbers and datagolf's field strength numbers, I adjust each golfer's score relative to the field. The ultimate goal is to place a score from the Waste Management Open, the BMW International Open, and the Knoxville Open on level playing fields. This adjusted strokes metric lets me see how golfers are performing across all tours.
Their adjusted stroke data is combined with their round-to-round variance to see how the field is likely to perform when playing the event out thousands of times.
Here are the results for the WGC-HSBC Champions.
Top Win Odds
| Golfer | Wins | FanDuel Sportsbook | Golfer | Wins | FanDuel Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | 9.9% | +600 | Justin Rose | 4.6% | +1600 |
| Adam Scott | 4.3% | +2700 | Hideki Matsuyama | 4.3% | +1100 |
| Paul Casey | 3.8% | +2200 | Xander Schauffele | 3.7% | +1400 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 3.0% | +5000 | Shane Lowry | 3.0% | +4200 |
| Jordan Spieth | 2.8% | +2900 | Tommy Fleetwood | 2.5% | +2200 |
| Billy Horschel | 2.2% | +3400 | Patrick Reed | 2.1% | +3100 |
| Tony Finau | 1.8% | +2200 | Byeong Hun An | 1.8% | +3100 |
| Sungjae Im | 1.7% | +3100 | Jason Kokrak | 1.7% | +8000 |
| Chez Reavie | 1.7% | +8000 | Matthew Fitzpatrick | 1.7% | +4200 |
| Andrew Putnam | 1.7% | +6500 | Corey Conners | 1.6% | +4200 |
| Henrik Stenson | 1.5% | +2700 | Ian Poulter | 1.5% | +5500 |
| Kevin Na | 1.5% | +7000 | Charles Howell III | 1.4% | +5000 |
| Adam Hadwin | 1.4% | +6500 | Keegan Bradley | 1.4% | +7000 |
| Rafa Cabrera Bello | 1.3% | +5000 | Cameron Smith | 1.3% | +3400 |
| Francesco Molinari | 1.3% | +4100 | Matt Wallace | 1.3% | +3400 |
| Erik van Rooyen | 1.2% | +5000 | Danny Willett | 1.2% | +5500 |
| Chan Kim | 1.2% | +21000 | Bernd Wiesberger | 1.2% | +3100 |
| Kevin Kisner | 1.2% | +7000 | Ryo Ishikawa | 1.0% | +15000 |
Rory McIlroy's status as a heavy favorite doesn't do enough to get me excited based on his price on Golf odds of +600. Favorites at these odds just don't entice me.
There's more value on Justin Rose (+1600) and Adam Scott (+2700), and they'd be the first place I look this week among the golfers with short odds. Xander Schauffele (+1400) can overpower the course but appears overvalued in his repeat attempt. Paul Casey (+2200) offers better value.
Louis Oosthuizen (+5000) and Shane Lowry (+4200) pop with positive expected value at their win odds. Lowry is coming off a 13th at the ZOZO Championship.
Chan Kim (+21000) and Ryo Ishikawa (+15000) should be treated more as top-20 plays than outrights in this field. Ishikawa started the ZOZO with a 68-68 but lost steam on the weekend. Kim finished 41st.