Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the 3M Open based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
We picked up a winner here last week with Jon Rahm taking it down at 22/1, and on the back of that swagger, we arrive at Minnesota ready to throw our hands in the air. Last week's loaded field and grueling conditions made it likely that the man at the top of the mountain come Sunday would surely be among the very best golfers in the world. As it turns out, that man ended up being the 25-year-old Spaniard and newly minted World No. 1.
This week...not so much. The 3M Open delivered plenty of drama in its inaugural edition in 2019, and the organizers will be thrilled to see it come down to the 72nd hole once more. But in a field with far less overall class than last week and eye-popping numbers next to golfers we've seen recently at triple the odds, it is difficult to pin down who might be making that magic this weekend and hard to find value up and down the board.
The only true guidance and theme we have this week are birdie-makers. We'll target the kind of aggressive golfers who go for broke on every hole and dot their cards not just with birdies but also plenty of bogeys, the hope being friendly conditions keep the birdies in play but forgive the errors.
For more info on TPC Twin Cities, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Tony Finau (+1400) - Not exactly the most appealing price for Finau, with Dustin Johnson (+1100), Brooks Koepka (+1200), and Tommy Fleetwood (+1600) all with stronger career resumes within a few points of him. However, Finau seems most likely in this group to give the 3M Open his full attention a week ahead of the WGC event. DJ was just about dead last in the field last week, and Koepka's floating interest in weak fields is well noted (as are his apparent nagging knee ailments). Fleetwood is making his debut since the PLAYERS was canceled, and coming off a quarantine in New York and playing former U.S. Open host Shinnecock Hills means he hasn't exactly been gearing up for a birdie fest.
Meanwhile, Finau is first in birdies or better gained since the restart, according to stats from Fantasy National Golf Club. He was in the hunt last week, but his aggression and fearlessness caught up to him on Sunday. He simply could not hit the green and was unable to clean up the mess around the greens. Those characteristics will serve him well here, and the much larger greens at TPC Twin Cities will be a welcome sight. A weaker overall field matches Finau's only career win when at an alternate event in Puerto Rico.
Value Spots
Harris English (+3300) - His game was on the rise before the layoff, and after an initial missed cut, English snapped right back into form. In all, he has five top 20s in his last six events, a MC at Colonial being the lone exception. Those fields were much stronger than he'll encounter this week, and a push for the podium could well be in store. He feasted on the weak field in the swing season, with four finishes of T6 or better in the fall. A win is a tall ask for a man who last took home hardware in 2013, but based on his recent form, he looks a steal for a Top 20 Finish (+150).
Lucas Glover (+3500) - Glover was T7 here last year and has been one of the best birdie makers since the restart, ranking third over five straight made cuts and four top 25 finishes. After being relegated to the then Web.com Tour in mid-2018, he found his way during the 2018-19 season and even qualified for the entire FedEx Cup Playoffs. The winter of 2019-20 was not kind, with no finish better than T37 in nine events across Asia, the West Coast, and Florida. Whether he just needed a break or was able to clear his head with the time off, Glover came out in the restart and has looked more like the golfer who was 13th in total birdies and 17th in scoring average in 2018-19.
Long Shots
Sepp Straka (+5000) - Straka should be unleashed this week after battling through Muirfield Village -- a pure shotmaker who was stymied by the fast and firm greens and thick rough. We've seen him go low before, and even though he missed the cut here last year, he clearly benefits from a drop in class. He has top 10 finishes in the past year or so at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, the American Express, the Houston Open, and the Bermuda Championship. He has not been able to get over the hump on the PGA Tour, but there is a little extra value on a First Round Leader (+6000) bet, in case he comes out hot and fades over the weekend.
Adam Schenk (+9500) - Much was made of Rookie of the Year Sungjae Im leading the Tour in birdies last year by a substantial margin. Less was noted about Schenk, number two in birdies -- a cool 83 behind Im. Schenk pours it in when he gets going, and at a course where he should be able to score, he could well find himself in the mix come Sunday.