Volatility is the name of the game in golf, and picking winners isn't easy. With fields of 150-plus golfers sometimes being separated by how a putt or two falls each week, predicting golf can be absurdly tough.
We'll never be able to capture everything that goes into a golfer's expectations for a week, but we can try to account for that by simulating out the weekend and seeing what happens.
The Process
Over the hiatus, I made some tweaks to my original golf model, which used a combination of the OWGR's field strength numbers and datagolf's field strength numbers to adjust each golfer's score relative to the field (on the PGA Tour, the European Tour, and the Korn Ferry Tour). The ultimate goal was to place a score from the Waste Management Open, the BMW International Open, and the Knoxville Open on level playing fields. This adjusted strokes metric lets me see how golfers are performing across all tours. From there, a golfer's adjusted stroke data is combined with their round-to-round variance to see how the field is likely to perform when playing out the event thousands of times.
I liked it, and it worked, but it didn't isolate out tee-to-green and putting performance enough, so I made some alterations, this time leveraging strokes gained data and adjusting that for field strength.
After using an average of those two models, I've now swapped to the newer model, which has fared better and is capable of course-level adjustments.
Here are the simulation results for THE NORTHERN TRUST.
| Golfer | Simulated Win% | FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds | Golfer | Simulated Win% | FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Thomas | 6.8% | +1400 | Rory McIlroy | 5.8% | +1400 |
| Jon Rahm | 5.5% | +1600 | Patrick Cantlay | 4.7% | +3000 |
| Xander Schauffele | 4.4% | +2000 | Bryson DeChambeau | 4.2% | +1200 |
| Collin Morikawa | 3.8% | +2200 | Hideki Matsuyama | 3.5% | +4000 |
| Webb Simpson | 3.4% | +3000 | Patrick Reed | 2.8% | +2800 |
| Jason Day | 2.4% | +2500 | Adam Scott | 2.0% | +4500 |
| Tony Finau | 2.0% | +3000 | Tyrrell Hatton | 1.8% | +6000 |
| Viktor Hovland | 1.7% | +6000 | Paul Casey | 1.4% | +4500 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 1.4% | +4800 | Brooks Koepka | 1.4% | +3300 |
| Rickie Fowler | 1.4% | +5500 | Dustin Johnson | 1.2% | +2000 |
| Marc Leishman | 1.2% | +11000 | Tiger Woods | 1.2% | +3500 |
| Abraham Ancer | 1.1% | +6500 | Billy Horschel | 1.1% | +5000 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | 1.1% | +6000 | Harris English | 1.1% | +8000 |
| Daniel Berger | 1.1% | +3300 | Kevin Kisner | 1.0% | +7000 |
| Gary Woodland | 1.0% | +6500 | Justin Rose | 1.0% | +6000 |
| SungJae Im | 1.0% | +5000 | Scottie Scheffler | 0.8% | +5000 |
| Matthew Wolff | 0.8% | +5500 | Jordan Spieth | 0.7% | +7500 |
| Cameron Champ | 0.7% | +7000 | Harold Varner III | 0.7% | +10000 |
[Update: Brooks Koepka has withdrawn.]
THE NORTHERN TRUST isn't a no-cut event, but it's also not a full field. That shifts odds around a bit. Bryson DeChambeau (+1200) is the odds-on favorite at Golf odds, but it's Justin Thomas (+1400) who won this most frequently in my simulations. There's a smidge of actual betting value on Thomas, whose tee-to-green performance is pretty much unmatched in 2020.
My model doesn't hate Rory McIlroy (+1400), Jon Rahm (+1600), Xander Schauffele (+2000), or Webb Simpson (+3000), but it's when we get to Patrick Cantlay (+3000) where things really pop off. Cantlay has the fifth-best adjusted strokes gained: approach numbers in 2020, via datagolf.com. His recent finishes have been stymied by iffy short game, but the ball-striking is there regardless. I've already bet him.
There's a similar case to be made for Hideki Matsuyama (+4000). Hideki, like Cantlay, has problems converting elite tee-to-green play into wins, but we're getting a good number on Matsuyama. Even factoring in the weak putting, Matsuyama won this simulated event 3.5% of the time, compared to the 2.4% that his FanDuel Sportsbook odds imply he will.
There's a little value on some mid-range picks -- Tyrrell Hatton (+6000), Viktor Hovland (+6000), and Harris English (+8000) -- but this one is more about nailing the high-end and middle of the board. The past eight winners have been DeChambeau, Thomas, McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Chris Kirk, Henrik Stenson, McIlroy, and Simpson.
My bets so far this week include Cantlay, Matsuyama, and Hatton.