Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the Sanderson Farms Championship based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
Bettors are faced with a unique trend this week that will surely guide many in their pursuit of an outright winner -- since moving to the Country Club of Jackson, each of the six winners at the Sanderson Farms Championship has been a first-time champion. That type of factoid is useful but not instructive. What it really indicates is that anyone can win here. While we should still keep an eye on the top talents in the field, the options further down the board are in play this week more than they have been in most events since the restart.
We'll be targeting golfers that can go on birdie runs, and part of that is always upside with the putter.
For more info on Country Club of Jackson, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Sungjae Im (+1300) - So you like birdies, huh? May we interest you in the man who has led the entire PGA Tour in total birdies the past two seasons? Im was in position to earn his first career victory at last year's Sanderson Farms, only to see Sebastian Munoz (+3100) birdie the 72nd hole and go on to win in a playoff. His game has no holes, and the flat stick, specifically on bermuda greens, is a strength. With only three golfers offered below 25/1, Im is the clear choice over Scottie Scheffler (+1000) and Will Zalatoris (+1700), and we'll take Im in the matchup head to head against Scheffler at +108.
Value Spots
Sam Burns (+2700) - Through a couple of events this year, Burns leads the Tour in total birdies and birdies or better percentage. He has earned the moniker "Bermuda Burns," and last time on such surfaces gained 3.2 strokes putting at the Wyndham Championship. He's been rock-solid tee to green lately, aside from a dud at THE NORTHERN TRUST. Burns has finished inside the top 32 in every event besides that one and the RBC Heritage since the restart.
Cameron Davis (+4500) - Davis has finished inside the top 15 in each of his last three events on bermuda greens -- T15 at the Wyndham, T8 at the Honda Classic, and T9 at the Sony Open. Those were the only bermuda tracks he's played in the past 10 months, thanks to the COVID pandemic striking right in the midst of the Florida swing. Davis was out-classed in the strong fields coming out of the layoff, but in a field missing the top-end talent, Davis is very much in play. In his last time out on bermuda greens at Sedgefield CC, Davis gained 5.2 strokes putting, one of the best marks of his career. He is a good value for a Top 20 Finish (+250).
Long Shots
Tom Lewis (+6500) - A runner up on bermuda at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational shines a light on Lewis, who otherwise would be hiding in plain sight at much longer than 65/1. He won the Korn Ferry Tour Championship a little over a year ago and went on to close out 2019 and start 2020 overseas. After posting five finishes of T13 or better in 11 European Tour events, he missed the cut in Puerto Rico and finished T47 at the Honda only to see his season come screeching to a halt. His third-round 61 shows what type of upside he has, and at longer odds, he's worth a flyer for a First Round Leader (+8000).
Mark Hubbard (+10000) - Hubbard popped up on a few leaderboards last year without figuring into the endgame, but some of his best finishes came on bermuda tracks like Sedgefield (T15 at the Wyndham), PGA National (T11 at the Honda), TPC Scottsdale (T9 on overseeded bermuda out west), and runner up at the Houston Open. He's another hedge option with decent odds for a Top 20 Finish (+500).