Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the Farmers Insurance Open based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
One thing stands out when looking back at prior winners at Torrey Pines -- class. Much is made of the distance needed to tame the beast that is the South Course, but what you'll find in common with winning players at the Farmers is an ability to get it done from in close. Recent winners include short game specialists like Jason Day and Brandt Snedeker (twice each), along with well-rounded ballstrikers Jon Rahm, Justin Rose, and Marc Leishman. Aside from Rose, each of these golfers also has a runner-up finish, and even the only true off the wall winner over the past decade -- Scott Stallings in 2014 -- had a runner-up the following year.
Course history is a dirty word, but like the correlated Augusta National, there is something here that suits certain golfers' eyes. We'll look to ballstrikers and scorers per usual, but golfers who have played well here in the past get an extra look this week.
For more info on Torrey Pines, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Jon Rahm (+700) - As per usual, if you're starting your card with Rahm it's probably a pretty short card. We'd have to invest a significant chunk of our weekly bankroll to back the world No. 2, but he may just be worth it. He's contended week in and week out for the past year, including a runner-up here last January. Besides his 2017 win and last year's 2nd, he has a 5th and a 29th to his name, the latter of which he was one stroke back after 36 holes. He's played well in California over his career and all signs point to his continued ascendance.
Tony Finau (+2100) - The Finau-heads were treated to yet another top-10 last week as the marquee victory continues to evade Tony. He's got a sterling record here -- top 25 in all six trips with three top 10s, including T6 last year. While he is a much better value as a future bet for the U.S. Open here at +4100, that number will be cut if he manages to play well again this week. His Masters record further cements his case as a clear fit, and he checks all the boxes for the all-around game we've seen succeed here.
Value Spots
Patrick Reed (+2900) - Course form? He was sixth last year. Augusta chops? Check his closet for the green jacket. Reed is a scorer with the world-class game that lines up well for a run at Torrey Pines. He's improved in each of his visits to La Jolla, with a T39 back in 2013 his only appearance aside from a 2016 withdrawal before a T23 in 2018, T13 in 2019, and T6 last year. Reed is a reliable winner and can gain in all facets of the game when he's clicking.
Bubba Watson (+4500) - When we last saw Watson two months ago, he was posting back to back top 10s in strong fields in California before a disappointing T57 at the Masters. Watson has a propensity for repeating wins at the same courses, and simulations from our own Brandon Gdula put his win and top 10 chances right there with guys above him in the market. He went off at 25/1 at Augusta and was trending up heading into that week, and now at a course where he's won before and finished T6 last year, we get him at 45/1? Auto-bet. We'll also grab a juicy number for a Top 10 Finish (+490).
Long Shots
Cameron Smith (+7000) - Two solid finishes at Augusta and a T9 here two years ago put Smith on the radar. Always worth a look in difficult scoring conditions, the Aussie has seen countrymen Day and Leishman hoist the trophy here, and Adam Scott (+4500) was runner up to Rose in 2019 after shooting 19-under on the week, three shots clear of the third-place finisher. Smith's short game will serve him well, and we know he won't back down against the top names in the sport. Before a T62 at the Sony Open in his title defense, he'd reeled off top 25 finishes in 8 of 9 events.
Corey Conners (+7500) - Conners will match Bubba as our exceptions to the short game qualifications, though both have been known to either get hot with the putter for a week or dial in their irons so well that they don't even need to. He's also missing the prior form at Torrey by virtue of having played here just once, a T29 in 2018. But he impressed with a top 10 in his Masters debut and rattled off T10 and T17 finishes since then at the RSM Classic and Mayakoba Golf Classic, respectively. He showed two years ago that he could find enough consistency to make it all the way to the Tour Championship, and the recent form indicates he's regained that form. The putter may well cost him a shot at the podium, but if he's flushing it, there's plenty of value in a Top 10 Finish (+700).