Volatility is the name of the game in golf, and picking winners isn't easy. With fields of 150-plus golfers sometimes being separated by how a putt or two falls each week, predicting golf can be absurdly tough.
We'll never be able to capture everything that goes into a golfer's expectations for a week, but we can try to account for that by simulating out the weekend and seeing what happens.
The Process
Over the years, I have made plenty of tweaks to my original golf model, which uses a combination of the OWGR's field strength numbers and datagolf's field strength numbers to adjust each golfer's score relative to the field (on the PGA Tour, the European Tour, and the Korn Ferry Tour).
The ultimate goal is to place a score from the Waste Management Open, the BMW International Open, and the Knoxville Open on level playing fields. This adjusted strokes metric lets me see how golfers are performing across all tours. From there, a golfer's adjusted stroke data is combined with their round-to-round variance to see how the field is likely to perform when playing out the event thousands of times.
In addition to that long-term adjusted form, I factor in course-level adjustments for course fit.
I run a second model that uses more granular strokes gained data, which allows me to adjust for course fit very easily. The results are averaged out.
I let the data do the talking and don't make many tweaks -- if any. Golfers with a small sample get regressed to a low-end PGA Tour player to round out their samples. Data points are weighted more heavily toward recent performance.
Here are the most likely winners for THE PLAYERS Championship, according to the models.
| Golfer | Simulated Win% | Simulated Top-10% | Simulated Made Cut% | FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Johnson | 5.9% | 31.9% | 77.2% | +1200 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 4.5% | 23.4% | 70.2% | +1700 |
| Jon Rahm | 4.4% | 27.2% | 73.7% | +1700 |
| Xander Schauffele | 4.2% | 27.0% | 73.8% | +2400 |
| Justin Thomas | 3.8% | 24.8% | 72.0% | +1900 |
| Webb Simpson | 3.1% | 23.2% | 71.0% | +2200 |
| Collin Morikawa | 3.1% | 19.8% | 67.6% | +2200 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 3.0% | 20.5% | 68.2% | +2500 |
| Rory McIlroy | 2.9% | 17.1% | 64.4% | +1600 |
| Daniel Berger | 2.7% | 22.4% | 70.0% | +4400 |
| Viktor Hovland | 2.5% | 19.1% | 67.3% | +2500 |
| Tony Finau | 2.4% | 17.7% | 66.0% | +3200 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 2.3% | 20.1% | 67.8% | +3300 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | 2.2% | 19.1% | 67.2% | +5000 |
| Russell Henley | 2.0% | 19.0% | 67.3% | +14000 |
| Patrick Reed | 1.9% | 15.7% | 64.2% | +4000 |
| Will Zalatoris | 1.6% | 12.6% | 59.7% | +7500 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 1.5% | 14.6% | 61.4% | +4000 |
| Joaquin Niemann | 1.4% | 12.2% | 59.6% | +7500 |
| Harris English | 1.4% | 14.5% | 61.7% | +10000 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 1.2% | 10.5% | 56.8% | +4000 |
| Sam Burns | 1.1% | 10.0% | 54.8% | +16000 |
| Jason Kokrak | 1.1% | 10.7% | 57.2% | +9500 |
| Paul Casey | 1.1% | 11.9% | 58.4% | +5000 |
| Corey Conners | 1.1% | 13.7% | 60.7% | +9000 |
| Sergio Garcia | 1.0% | 9.8% | 55.3% | +9500 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 1.0% | 9.6% | 55.4% | +8500 |
| Jason Day | 0.9% | 8.9% | 53.3% | +5000 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 0.9% | 10.4% | 57.0% | +9000 |
| Billy Horschel | 0.8% | 10.2% | 55.4% | +9500 |
| Sungjae Im | 0.8% | 11.5% | 58.4% | +5000 |
| Abraham Ancer | 0.8% | 11.8% | 58.2% | +8000 |
| Ryan Palmer | 0.8% | 9.9% | 55.8% | +18000 |
| Cameron Tringale | 0.8% | 8.5% | 53.2% | +18000 |
| Kevin Kisner | 0.7% | 10.7% | 57.1% | +18000 |
| Jordan Spieth | 0.7% | 6.4% | 48.9% | +3000 |
| Cameron Smith | 0.7% | 9.0% | 54.3% | +7500 |
| Kevin Na | 0.7% | 8.8% | 53.9% | +14000 |
| Bubba Watson | 0.7% | 7.3% | 49.9% | +18000 |
| Brendon Todd | 0.6% | 10.3% | 56.2% | +20000 |
| Lanto Griffin | 0.6% | 8.0% | 52.5% | +13000 |
| Henrik Norlander | 0.6% | 6.9% | 49.8% | +24000 |
| Zach Johnson | 0.6% | 7.0% | 49.8% | +25000 |
| Chris Kirk | 0.6% | 6.6% | 48.9% | +15000 |
| Cameron Davis | 0.6% | 6.3% | 48.5% | +18000 |
| Brian Harman | 0.6% | 8.3% | 52.9% | +21000 |
| Charley Hoffman | 0.6% | 6.6% | 49.3% | +23000 |
| Max Homa | 0.5% | 6.4% | 49.6% | +9500 |
| Adam Scott | 0.5% | 5.1% | 45.0% | +8000 |
| Talor Gooch | 0.5% | 6.6% | 48.9% | +20000 |
| Si Woo Kim | 0.5% | 6.1% | 48.2% | +15000 |
| Harold Varner III | 0.5% | 6.1% | 47.5% | +25000 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 0.5% | 5.6% | 46.8% | +4100 |
| Rickie Fowler | 0.5% | 5.3% | 45.6% | +16000 |
| Kevin Streelman | 0.5% | 8.0% | 51.9% | +24000 |
| Ian Poulter | 0.5% | 6.3% | 48.4% | +18000 |
| Keegan Bradley | 0.5% | 5.7% | 47.1% | +18000 |
These are pretty low simulation odds at the top, simply due to the competition involved. Dustin Johnson rates out as the most likely winner but isn't a positive expected value. In fact, the first positive value I see at opening odds is my guy Xander Schauffele, whose data is every bit as good as the other elites and who is +2400 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
It's just so tight this week. The deep and difficult field makes it hard to emerge here, and there's the added variable of TPC Sawgrass's volatility from water.
There is value more in the mid-range, per the simulations, with Daniel Berger (+4400), Matthew Fitzpatrick (+5000), Will Zalatoris (+7500), and Joaquin Niemann (+7500). We can see some long shot winners, though the past five have been pretty chalky overall: Rory McIlroy, Webb Simpson, Si Woo Kim, Jason Day, and Rickie Fowler.
The one massive standout, per the simulations, is Russell Henley (+14000). He's an elite iron player and putts best when on Bermuda greens, via FantasyNational. It's too long a number, but be open to a top-five or top-10 rather than an outright.
I've landed on outrights on Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, Schauffele, and Berger with top-10s on Abraham Ancer, Talor Gooch, and Russell Henley thus far.