Volatility is the name of the game in golf, and picking winners isn't easy. With fields of 150-plus golfers sometimes being separated by how a putt or two falls each week, predicting golf can be absurdly tough.
We'll never be able to capture everything that goes into a golfer's expectations for a week, but we can try to account for that by simulating out the weekend and seeing what happens.
The Process
Over the years, I have made plenty of tweaks to my original golf model, which uses a combination of the OWGR's field strength numbers and datagolf's field strength numbers to adjust each golfer's score relative to the field (on the PGA Tour, the European Tour, and the Korn Ferry Tour).
The ultimate goal is to place a score from the Waste Management Open, the BMW International Open, and the Knoxville Open on level playing fields. This adjusted strokes metric lets me see how golfers are performing across all tours. From there, a golfer's adjusted stroke data is combined with their round-to-round variance to see how the field is likely to perform when playing out the event thousands of times.
In addition to that long-term adjusted form, I factor in course-level adjustments for course fit.
I run a second model that uses more granular strokes gained data, which allows me to adjust for course fit very easily. The results are averaged out.
I let the data do the talking and don't make many tweaks -- if any. Golfers with a small sample get regressed to a low-end PGA Tour player to round out their samples. Data points are weighted more heavily toward recent performance.
Here are the most likely winners for The Honda Classic, according to the models.
| Golfer | Simulated Win% | Simulated Top-10% | Simulated Made Cut% | FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Henley | 5.3% | 31.6% | 78.5% | +2900 |
| Joaquin Niemann | 4.8% | 29.7% | 77.4% | +1800 |
| Sungjae Im | 3.8% | 24.4% | 73.9% | +1200 |
| Cameron Tringale | 2.6% | 20.2% | 70.1% | +4000 |
| Talor Gooch | 2.2% | 18.8% | 69.1% | +3100 |
| Shane Lowry | 2.2% | 15.4% | 65.4% | +2000 |
| Lee Westwood | 1.9% | 17.0% | 67.8% | +2000 |
| Kevin Streelman | 1.9% | 16.2% | 66.6% | +7500 |
| Henrik Norlander | 1.8% | 13.1% | 62.5% | +9500 |
| Cameron Davis | 1.8% | 16.8% | 66.4% | +4000 |
| Harold Varner III | 1.8% | 13.6% | 63.8% | +9500 |
| Chris Kirk | 1.7% | 14.4% | 64.6% | +3700 |
| Zach Johnson | 1.7% | 16.3% | 66.4% | +9500 |
| Brendan Steele | 1.7% | 14.9% | 65.1% | +4000 |
| Adam Scott | 1.6% | 14.2% | 63.8% | +2800 |
| John Huh | 1.5% | 9.9% | 56.2% | +10000 |
| Jim Furyk | 1.5% | 9.0% | 54.4% | +9000 |
| Rickie Fowler | 1.4% | 11.3% | 60.8% | +4900 |
| J.T. Poston | 1.3% | 11.9% | 61.3% | +6500 |
| Patton Kizzire | 1.3% | 13.7% | 63.1% | +8500 |
| Matt Wallace | 1.3% | 13.1% | 62.3% | +6500 |
| Keegan Bradley | 1.3% | 12.2% | 62.3% | +4900 |
| Doug Ghim | 1.2% | 12.3% | 62.0% | +6500 |
| James Hahn | 1.2% | 12.5% | 61.7% | +11000 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 1.2% | 15.6% | 65.2% | +8000 |
| Ian Poulter | 1.2% | 13.3% | 62.3% | +7000 |
| Denny McCarthy | 1.1% | 10.5% | 59.6% | +14000 |
| Chez Reavie | 1.1% | 9.4% | 57.1% | +8500 |
| Dylan Frittelli | 1.1% | 12.6% | 62.0% | +6500 |
| Adam Hadwin | 1.1% | 10.6% | 58.6% | +8500 |
| Matthew NeSmith | 1.1% | 10.6% | 59.1% | +8500 |
| Erik van Rooyen | 1.0% | 12.5% | 61.6% | +7500 |
| Alex Noren | 1.0% | 10.7% | 58.8% | +7500 |
| Lucas Glover | 1.0% | 10.0% | 57.5% | +10000 |
| Michael Thompson | 1.0% | 9.6% | 57.9% | +8000 |
| Sepp Straka | 1.0% | 10.7% | 59.9% | +16000 |
| Rory Sabbatini | 0.9% | 10.0% | 58.7% | +12000 |
| Tom Hoge | 0.9% | 10.5% | 58.8% | +9500 |
| Pat Perez | 0.9% | 8.9% | 56.2% | +22000 |
| Richy Werenski | 0.9% | 9.2% | 56.3% | +8500 |
| Scott Stallings | 0.8% | 10.0% | 58.7% | +17000 |
| Mark Hubbard | 0.8% | 9.6% | 57.5% | +16000 |
| Ryan Moore | 0.8% | 6.4% | 48.6% | +8500 |
| Charl Schwartzel | 0.8% | 8.3% | 55.7% | +14000 |
| Matt Jones | 0.8% | 10.6% | 58.7% | +8500 |
| Luke List | 0.7% | 8.5% | 55.7% | +8000 |
| Brian Stuard | 0.7% | 7.5% | 53.3% | +25000 |
| Bo Hoag | 0.7% | 8.6% | 55.9% | +16000 |
| Steve Stricker | 0.7% | 6.7% | 51.7% | +19000 |
| Aaron Wise | 0.7% | 7.6% | 53.3% | +8500 |
| Kristoffer Ventura | 0.7% | 8.2% | 54.9% | +24000 |
| Wyndham Clark | 0.6% | 8.7% | 55.4% | +7000 |
| Phil Mickelson | 0.6% | 6.0% | 50.3% | +9500 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 0.6% | 7.8% | 54.3% | +9500 |
| Adam Long | 0.6% | 9.0% | 57.2% | +7500 |
| Stewart Cink | 0.6% | 8.0% | 54.8% | +19000 |
| Patrick Rodgers | 0.6% | 8.1% | 53.8% | +16000 |
| Tyler Duncan | 0.6% | 7.9% | 54.0% | +25000 |
| Peter Malnati | 0.6% | 11.4% | 60.8% | +16000 |
| Harry Higgs | 0.5% | 7.1% | 52.7% | +11000 |
| Kyoung-hoon Lee | 0.5% | 5.7% | 50.6% | +7000 |
| Nick Taylor | 0.5% | 7.4% | 54.0% | +12000 |
| Adam Schenk | 0.5% | 6.6% | 51.4% | +19000 |
| Cameron Percy | 0.5% | 7.8% | 54.0% | +16000 |
| Roger Sloan | 0.5% | 6.6% | 52.7% | +25000 |
| C.T. Pan | 0.5% | 6.2% | 51.6% | +23000 |
| Russell Knox | 0.5% | 7.0% | 51.8% | +8000 |
| Camilo Villegas | 0.5% | 4.5% | 43.7% | +35000 |
| Chesson Hadley | 0.5% | 5.8% | 49.8% | +23000 |
| Byeong Hun An | 0.5% | 6.0% | 50.4% | +6000 |
A ton of golfers have at least 0.5% odds to win, according to the combined models simply due to the parity all the way down the list.
[Editor's note: Daniel Berger has withdrawn.] Daniel Berger is easily the class of the field by recent form and is at least in the conversation at +1000. But there are a few model favorites at the top of the list, as well.
With Berger out, Joaquin Niemann at +1800 has a lot of appeal, but he's not a positive value. We see just about everyone from +1800 to +6000 close to a justifiable bet.
The model is heavy on Russell Henley at +2900 with his elite iron play and good course form. He has finished top-25 in three straight years and 8th last year and won in 2014.
Cameron Tringale (+4000) and Talor Gooch (+3100) are also flashing some value. Tringale has made three of four cuts over the past four years, and Gooch has made two straight cuts at PGA National. The recent form, though, is what's giving them value here.
Kevin Streelman (+7500) and Henrik Norlander (+9500) are in play as moderate long shots, though Norlander was a nightmare here last year and isn't in great form. The weak field is leaving the door open for just about everyone.
I bet Henley and Gooch early in the week. I have since added action on Tringale, Streelman, Zach Johnson, and John Huh.