Volatility is the name of the game in golf, and picking winners isn't easy. With fields of 150-plus golfers sometimes being separated by how a putt or two falls each week, predicting golf can be absurdly tough.
We'll never be able to capture everything that goes into a golfer's expectations for a week, but we can try to account for that by simulating out the weekend and seeing what happens.
The Process
Over the years, I have made plenty of tweaks to my original golf model, which uses a combination of the OWGR's field strength numbers and datagolf's field strength numbers to adjust each golfer's score relative to the field (on the PGA Tour, the European Tour, and the Korn Ferry Tour).
The ultimate goal is to place a score from the Waste Management Open, the BMW International Open, and the Knoxville Open on level playing fields. This adjusted strokes metric lets me see how golfers are performing across all tours. From there, a golfer's adjusted stroke data is combined with their round-to-round variance to see how the field is likely to perform when playing out the event thousands of times.
In addition to that long-term adjusted form, I factor in course-level adjustments for course fit.
I run a second model that uses more granular strokes gained data, which allows me to very easily adjust for course fit. The results are averaged out.
I let the data do the talking and don't make many tweaks -- if any. Golfers with a small sample get regressed to a low-end PGA Tour player to round out their samples. Data points are weighted more heavily toward recent performance.
Here are the most likely winners for the Valero Texas Open, according to the models.
| Golfer | Simulated Win% | Simulated Top-10% | Simulated Made Cut% | FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Finau | 6.4% | 33.8% | 87.5% | +1300 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 3.8% | 24.7% | 81.5% | +1500 |
| Corey Conners | 3.7% | 25.2% | 81.0% | +2100 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 3.1% | 20.7% | 77.2% | +1900 |
| Ryan Palmer | 2.9% | 21.4% | 77.9% | +2800 |
| Jordan Spieth | 2.6% | 17.0% | 73.6% | +1100 |
| Abraham Ancer | 2.5% | 19.6% | 76.6% | +1900 |
| Cameron Tringale | 2.5% | 18.4% | 75.5% | +3300 |
| Sam Burns | 2.3% | 18.3% | 74.7% | +4700 |
| Siwoo Kim | 2.2% | 18.0% | 74.5% | +3300 |
| Lanto Griffin | 2.1% | 17.4% | 74.5% | +4700 |
| Chris Kirk | 1.8% | 14.8% | 70.5% | +4300 |
| Charley Hoffman | 1.8% | 15.1% | 71.0% | +3100 |
| Zach Johnson | 1.8% | 15.6% | 72.1% | +6000 |
| Brendan Steele | 1.7% | 14.2% | 70.2% | +3100 |
| Harold Varner III | 1.6% | 13.2% | 68.4% | +7000 |
| Cameron Davis | 1.5% | 13.2% | 68.4% | +4300 |
| John Huh | 1.3% | 12.1% | 66.9% | +8000 |
| Matt Wallace | 1.3% | 11.9% | 67.0% | +7500 |
| Henrik Norlander | 1.3% | 11.0% | 65.0% | +15000 |
| Denny McCarthy | 1.2% | 11.5% | 66.6% | +9500 |
| Charles Howell III | 1.2% | 12.0% | 66.4% | +7500 |
| Rickie Fowler | 1.2% | 11.1% | 64.6% | +6500 |
| Sebastian J Munoz | 1.2% | 11.7% | 66.1% | +9000 |
| Adam Hadwin | 1.2% | 11.2% | 66.1% | +6500 |
| Patton Kizzire | 1.1% | 12.3% | 67.9% | +13000 |
| Matt Kuchar | 1.1% | 10.0% | 63.7% | +4300 |
| Erik van Rooyen | 1.1% | 10.9% | 64.7% | +9500 |
| Keegan Bradley | 1.0% | 10.8% | 65.0% | +4700 |
| Doug Ghim | 1.0% | 10.8% | 64.7% | +8500 |
| Jim Furyk | 0.9% | 8.9% | 61.7% | +15000 |
| Peter Malnati | 0.8% | 9.2% | 61.6% | +19000 |
| Matthew NeSmith | 0.8% | 9.3% | 61.7% | +11000 |
| Lucas Glover | 0.8% | 9.8% | 63.9% | +11000 |
| Sepp Straka | 0.8% | 9.5% | 62.5% | +8000 |
| Tom Hoge | 0.8% | 8.9% | 61.1% | +13000 |
| Phil Mickelson | 0.8% | 8.0% | 58.9% | +9000 |
| Charl Schwartzel | 0.8% | 9.0% | 61.1% | +19000 |
| Pat Perez | 0.8% | 9.1% | 61.2% | +19000 |
| Aaron Wise | 0.7% | 8.8% | 61.3% | +7500 |
| Joel Dahmen | 0.7% | 8.0% | 60.3% | +7000 |
| Ryan Moore | 0.7% | 6.3% | 54.4% | +6500 |
| Harry Higgs | 0.7% | 7.4% | 58.3% | +8000 |
| Martin Laird | 0.7% | 7.1% | 57.5% | +13000 |
| Doc Redman | 0.7% | 8.5% | 60.6% | +19000 |
| Cameron Percy | 0.7% | 7.8% | 59.2% | +19000 |
| Gary Woodland | 0.6% | 8.2% | 60.2% | +8000 |
| Bo Hoag | 0.6% | 8.1% | 59.9% | +23000 |
| Chase Seiffert | 0.6% | 7.2% | 57.3% | +15000 |
| Branden Grace | 0.6% | 7.9% | 59.9% | +4700 |
| Patrick Rodgers | 0.6% | 7.5% | 57.9% | +19000 |
| Scott Stallings | 0.6% | 7.7% | 60.2% | +19000 |
| Andrew Putnam | 0.6% | 7.5% | 58.8% | +6500 |
| Camilo Villegas | 0.6% | 6.9% | 55.6% | +31000 |
| Cameron Champ | 0.6% | 7.2% | 57.9% | +14000 |
| Adam Long | 0.6% | 7.7% | 58.4% | +9500 |
| Wesley Bryan | 0.6% | 6.8% | 57.0% | +23000 |
| Roger Sloan | 0.6% | 8.1% | 59.5% | +19000 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 0.6% | 7.9% | 58.7% | +9500 |
| Adam Schenk | 0.6% | 6.6% | 56.3% | +23000 |
| Brice Garnett | 0.6% | 6.9% | 57.7% | +19000 |
| Brian Stuard | 0.5% | 6.2% | 54.8% | +23000 |
| Russell Knox | 0.5% | 6.6% | 55.9% | +15000 |
| Tom Lewis | 0.5% | 6.7% | 56.3% | +19000 |
| Danny Willett | 0.5% | 5.9% | 53.8% | +8000 |
| Luke List | 0.5% | 7.4% | 58.1% | +15000 |
| Rory Sabbatini | 0.5% | 7.6% | 58.6% | +15000 |
| Sam Ryder | 0.5% | 6.4% | 55.0% | +9500 |
| Bernd Wiesberger | 0.5% | 7.5% | 58.2% | +15000 |
| Ryan Armour | 0.5% | 6.2% | 55.3% | +31000 |
| Kristoffer Ventura | 0.5% | 6.3% | 55.3% | +36000 |
| Byeong Hun An | 0.5% | 5.8% | 54.1% | +7500 |
| Nick Taylor | 0.5% | 7.0% | 58.0% | +15000 |
| Brandon Hagy | 0.5% | 5.8% | 54.3% | +19000 |
The models are prioritizing Tony Finau for his long-term form compared to the rest of this field, but with his odds down to +1300, he no longer is showing positive expected value. Scottie Scheffler isn't getting an arbitrary data bump for playing in Texas or for making the WGC-Match Play finals, so he looks a little overvalued, as well. Jordan Spieth's trending up quickly but shouldn't be the favorite.
The top of the board overall is pretty tight, making this a bit of a tricky week.
There is positive value on Sam Burns at +4700 at a bermuda course (where he putts well) that can reward a distance advantage. Lanto Griffin, a winner in Texas at the Houston Open, is valued exactly right at +4700, per the models. Zach Johnson, a winner in Fort Worth in 2012, is also rightly valued at +6000.
It may be a week to focus more on this middle tier. The field is good enough not to chase only long shots, but it's no guarantee that the winner comes from the favorites.
I've settled on outrights on Sam Burns, Zach Johnson, and John Huh. With some first-round leader props on Byeong-Hun An, Luke List, and Charl Schwartzel.
And in case you didn't know, there is an LPGA major this week, the ANA Inspiration, for which I posted simulations and picks.