Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the Zurich Classic based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
With a unique format and an altogether different approach to the team event, our sights fall squarely on the value card this week. The top of the card is significantly stronger than the middle and bottom, but we've seen teams with two elite players miss the cut plenty of times since this event switched to team play in 2017. With both missed cut and contending weekends in just about every team's range under 200/1, we'll focus on teams that look like the best odds in each tier.
The other unifying factor for our picks this week -- fun! This is a wacky event, and traditional stats and projections are out the window. We'll eye up some pairs that make sense as a team and should have some fun whacking it around suburban New Orleans. That goes for us bettors too this week -- find the teams you like and back them, and don't sweat too many details that won't end up mattering.
For more info on TPC Louisiana along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Collin Morikawa and Matthew Wolff (+1600) - This week features three top-five players by the Official World Golf Ranking, and Morikawa is the only one who isn't tied as a favorite. In fact there are four teams with shorter odds than this squad, a group that features five Tour victories in the 22 months since they turned pro. Wolff is in the midst of a rough patch and endured a similar stretch last year, but Morikawa is one of the most consistent players in the world thanks to one of the very best approach games we've ever seen. Wolff's strength is off the tee, and both players have shown an ability to get hot with the putter. Both enjoyed tremendous success as members of their collegiate teams, and for two young guys, this may end up being one of the most fun weeks of the year.
Value Spots
Keegan Bradley and Brendan Steele (+2900) - Solid starts to the season for two good friends are enough to give this duo the edge to the group between 20/1 and 40/1. Bradley has made six straight cuts with five finishes inside the top 30, and Steele has made the weekend in all nine of his 2021 events with two top-fives along the way. Both have quality all-around tee-to-green games, and while neither is known for his putting prowess this strange format tends to ramp up the variance for even the most consistent golfers. We'll take the team chemistry route and back this squad.
Joel Dahmen and Lanto Griffin (+3300) - Another ball-striking combo that we can now say are both PGA Tour winners, Dahmen and Griffin should have a blast this week. Dahmen has top-25 finishes in each of the last two editions, and in just his second event since winning the Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship, he will bring the good vibes in addition to valuable experience. The win came in the midst of a dismal stretch for Dahmen, but Griffin has been very consistent of late, with six straight finishes of T35 or better before missing the cut at The Masters.
Long Shots
Graeme McDowell and Matt Wallace (+5500) - We'll back these two Europeans: a former major champion, McDowell, and a fast riser in Wallace, who has three top 20s in his last five events, including a 3rd at the Valero Texas Open. Wallace gained in all three tee-to-green categories in all three of those solid finishes, a testament to his consistent game. As he rounds into form, he really does not have a glaring weakness. McDowell finished 18th in 2019 and 22nd in 2018 alongside Henrik Stenson and Ian Poulter, respectively, and that experience will prove invaluable paired with the first-timer Wallace.
Charley Hoffman and Nick Watney (+6000) - Paired in each of the three years since the format changed to a team event, with finishes of T5, T31 and T9. Clearly these two get along, and Hoffman in particular has been in terrific form with six top 20s in nine events since the calendar turned to 2021. Watney not so much -- he's missed 13 straight cuts. That Hoffman still picked him as his teammate this week speaks to their bond, and Charley's good nature and great form can hopefully elevate the downtrodden Watney. For the experience and results, this duo is well worth the 60/1 and also a fair bet for a Top 10 Finish (+490).
Andrew Landry and Austin Cook (+15000) - These two finished T22 in 2019 and are good for a spike finish or two every season. The fellow Arkansas Razorbacks share a sponsor, and after winning the Valero Texas Open in 2018, Landry shared a story of staying with Cook during a particularly fraught stage of his career while in Q-School. These two have a bond, and with one solid finish already, we can expect a solid showing from them this week. The win at this number would be lovely, but in a short field and a good connection we'll take a Top 20 Finish (+360).