Volatility is the name of the game in golf, and picking winners isn't easy. With fields of 150-plus golfers sometimes being separated by how a putt or two falls each week, predicting golf can be absurdly tough.
We'll never be able to capture everything that goes into a golfer's expectations for a week, but we can try to account for that by simulating out the weekend and seeing what happens.
The Process
Over the years, I have made plenty of tweaks to my original golf model, which uses a combination of the OWGR's field strength numbers and datagolf's field strength numbers to adjust each golfer's score relative to the field (on the PGA Tour, the European Tour, and the Korn Ferry Tour).
The ultimate goal is to place a score from the Waste Management Open, the BMW International Open, and the Knoxville Open on level playing fields. This adjusted strokes metric lets me see how golfers are performing across all tours. From there, a golfer's adjusted stroke data is combined with their round-to-round variance to see how the field is likely to perform when playing out the event thousands of times.
In addition to that long-term adjusted form, I factor in course-level adjustments for course fit.
I run a second model that uses more granular strokes gained data, which allows me to very easily adjust for course fit. The results are averaged out.
I let the data do the talking and don't make many tweaks -- if any. Golfers with a small sample get regressed to a low-end PGA Tour player to round out their samples. Data points are weighted more heavily toward recent performance.
Here are the most likely winners for the Palmetto Championship at Congaree, according to the models.
| Golfer | Simulated Win% | Simulated Top-10% | Simulated Made Cut% | FOX Bet Win Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Johnson | 9.5% | 44.0% | 86.0% | +750 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 7.4% | 38.7% | 83.7% | +1300 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | 6.7% | 37.3% | 83.8% | +1400 |
| Brooks Koepka | 6.1% | 35.0% | 81.7% | +750 |
| Harris English | 4.3% | 27.3% | 77.0% | +2800 |
| Sungjae Im | 3.5% | 25.3% | 76.0% | +2000 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 2.9% | 21.4% | 72.8% | +2000 |
| Kevin Kisner | 2.2% | 18.1% | 69.9% | +4500 |
| Ian Poulter | 2.2% | 17.7% | 70.4% | +3300 |
| Lucas Glover | 2.0% | 18.4% | 70.7% | +4000 |
| Harold Varner III | 2.0% | 19.4% | 71.3% | +4500 |
| Alex Noren | 1.8% | 19.0% | 70.9% | +3300 |
| Patton Kizzire | 1.8% | 16.4% | 67.9% | +3300 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 1.3% | 14.2% | 65.1% | +5000 |
| Scott Stallings | 1.3% | 12.4% | 63.8% | +7000 |
| Erik van Rooyen | 1.2% | 12.5% | 63.4% | +8000 |
| James Hahn | 1.2% | 12.0% | 63.1% | +12500 |
| Luke List | 1.1% | 13.4% | 65.0% | +7000 |
| Doc Redman | 1.0% | 11.4% | 61.6% | +6000 |
| Russell Knox | 1.0% | 11.8% | 62.8% | +6000 |
| Sepp Straka | 1.0% | 10.8% | 60.9% | +9000 |
| J.T. Poston | 1.0% | 11.0% | 61.8% | +10000 |
| C.T. Pan | 1.0% | 11.4% | 61.8% | +7000 |
| Richy Werenski | 1.0% | 12.0% | 62.4% | +8000 |
| John Huh | 1.0% | 10.4% | 61.1% | +12500 |
| Bo Hoag | 0.9% | 11.4% | 62.0% | +9000 |
| Garrick Higgo | 0.9% | 9.6% | 59.3% | +4500 |
| Pat Perez | 0.9% | 10.8% | 61.6% | +7000 |
| Nick Taylor | 0.9% | 10.7% | 61.8% | +9000 |
| Mark Hubbard | 0.9% | 9.0% | 58.1% | +12500 |
| Vincent Whaley | 0.9% | 10.3% | 59.7% | +8000 |
| Martin Laird | 0.9% | 10.6% | 60.9% | +6600 |
| Matthew NeSmith | 0.8% | 10.6% | 60.7% | +7000 |
| Roger Sloan | 0.8% | 10.6% | 60.6% | +15000 |
| Brice Garnett | 0.8% | 9.6% | 59.4% | +15000 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 0.7% | 9.2% | 58.2% | +5000 |
| Ben Martin | 0.7% | 8.9% | 58.5% | +9000 |
| Andrew Putnam | 0.7% | 8.3% | 57.2% | +17500 |
| Adam Schenk | 0.6% | 8.2% | 57.8% | +12500 |
| Rory Sabbatini | 0.6% | 8.2% | 56.8% | +9000 |
| Keith Mitchell | 0.6% | 7.6% | 54.6% | +3300 |
| Jason Dufner | 0.6% | 7.7% | 56.1% | +10000 |
| David Lipsky | 0.6% | 8.5% | 57.7% | +10000 |
| Bronson Burgoon | 0.6% | 8.0% | 56.3% | +12500 |
| Scott Piercy | 0.6% | 7.2% | 54.6% | +10000 |
| Ryan Armour | 0.6% | 7.0% | 54.6% | +20000 |
| Brian Stuard | 0.5% | 7.5% | 55.5% | +12500 |
| Hank Lebioda | 0.5% | 7.8% | 56.5% | +12500 |
| Henrik Norlander | 0.5% | 7.4% | 55.5% | +12500 |
| Tom Lewis | 0.5% | 8.4% | 56.7% | +12500 |
| Tyler Duncan | 0.5% | 6.4% | 52.8% | +20000 |
| Chase Seiffert | 0.5% | 7.3% | 55.8% | +20000 |
| Patrick Rodgers | 0.5% | 7.0% | 55.1% | +10000 |
| Rafa Cabrera Bello | 0.5% | 5.7% | 51.5% | +6600 |
| Byeong Hun An | 0.5% | 7.1% | 53.7% | +12500 |
| Chez Reavie | 0.5% | 6.8% | 54.5% | +25000 |
| Nate Lashley | 0.5% | 7.1% | 54.2% | +12500 |
| Anirban Lahiri | 0.5% | 6.6% | 53.0% | +20000 |
| Vaughn Taylor | 0.5% | 6.1% | 52.2% | +12500 |
The top of this field is good, so it takes up a ton of the win equity. The top 14 golfers in win odds absorb more than half of the wins in my simulations.
That starts with Dustin Johnson (+750 on FOX Bet). Johnson's form is down, but the past year of data puts him into another tier relative to this field. He's playing in his home state but could have his eyes on the U.S. Open next week, so I'm not betting him.
Brooks Koepka (+750) rates out worse, given his past year of data. We especially know that Koepka is a major hunter, and he's also been pretty keen on making headlines. Either way, the data shows horrible value on Koepka at those odds.
The best bets at the top are Tyrrell Hatton (+1300), Matt Fitzpatrick (+1400), and Harris English (+2800), all of whom are positive expected values in the win simulations. I like the fit for Tommy Fleetwood (+2000) but less so the odds.
There are a few steady options down the board, including Lucas Glover (+4000), Kevin Kisner (+4500), Martin Laird (+6600), Scott Stallings (+7000), and Luke List.
I've settled on Hatton, Glover, Laird, and List for the week.