Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the BMW Championship based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
Caves Valley Golf Club hosts the second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs this week, as the golf world is still reeling from the Monday finish in Jersey that saw world No. 1 Jon Rahm fade down the stretch as Tony Finau -- yes Tony Finau -- put on a ballstriking clinic to close out a big-time golf tournament.
We'll be looking for ballstrikers again this week, with a keen eye toward the top iron players. Caves Valley has added some distance in preparation for PGA Tour pros, but all of these guys can lay it out long enough that the second shot into tiny greens will be key. With just 90 players in the field and all the top dogs, we'll put out a top-heavy card with just one major longshot who has some trends of his own in play.
For more info on Caves Valley Golf Club along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Despite Rahm leading the way at +650 as the unquestioned alpha on Tour right now, we prefer the top of our card to feature three golfers capable of being the best in the world on any given week at about three times those odds or longer.
Justin Thomas (+1800) - A fourth-place finish for Thomas at Liberty National became something of an afterthought thanks to the drama with his playing partner and the group behind them. JT was tied with Rahm as the first-round leader but continually set himself back over the weekend. As is often the case with Thomas, he left too many opportunities out there but has to feel good about still being in the mix on Sunday. Thomas hit the first eight greens in regulation on Saturday but came away with just one birdie, and Sunday started with a bogey after splitting the fairway off the tee. It was his first top-10 since winning THE PLAYERS, a stupefying slump for a player of his caliber. It won't be long before he's back there, and in a field of just 69, he's well worth a look for a Top-10 Finish (+170).
Collin Morikawa (+2000) - The Champion Golfer of the Year was at the top of the FedEx Cup Standings going into last week, but a disastrous missed cut knocked him all the way down to sixth thanks to the heavy point allocation for Playoff events. Morikawa is the approach king right now, so far ahead of the pack in the Tour's strokes gained: approach stat that the 2nd-ranked player is as close to the 18th as he is to Morikawa. So it was shocking that he posted a negative number at THE NORTHERN TRUST, and in fact, it was the first time all season he lost strokes with his irons. With a WGC and a major already on his resume this season and a missed cut last week basically irrelevant in terms of the FedEx Cup, we expect Morikawa to bounce back in a big way this week.
Jordan Spieth (+2200) - Oblige us one more top-tier play, and another coming off a mess at Lincoln National. Nothing was working for Spieth on Sunday. For the week, he lost 4.1 stokes tee to green and 2.1 strokes, but just on Sunday, those figures were minus-7.6 and minus-1.2, respectively, putting on the week. Sunday was the second-worst individual round Spieth has played in at least the last seven years, according to strokes gained data aggregated by Fantasy National Golf Club. That won't last, and Spieth's comeback season has more magic left in it.
Value Spots
Paul Casey (+3400) - Casey is that mystery man behind Morikawa in the season-long strokes gained: approach metric, currently on a great run with his irons but in the midst of a dreadful -- even for him -- stretch with the putter. He's gained at least 4.1 strokes with his irons in all but two measured PGA Tour events in calendar year 2021, yet the short game is poor enough that he lost a combined 10.1 strokes between around the green and putting last week. He had a great week on the greens in Memphis, and we're hoping the pendulum can swing back that way this week. At 54th in the FedEx Cup standings, Casey needs a big week to earn a spot at East Lake.
Joaquin Niemann (+5000) - It was kind of an invisible week for Niemann at THE NORTHERN TRUST, a T47 that served mainly to lock in a season where Niemann missed just a single cut and that at a course he's done well at before in Muirfield Village. That week-to-week consistency has been a missing link for Niemann, and now the big monkey on his back is finding a win in a strong field. He was third in this event last year, and while not relevant in terms of course fit, there is a certain confidence that Niemann can derive from having held his own against the very best in a high-pressure situation. He has three runner-ups since then and could easily have been a multiple winner this year, in which case he'd be on offer at about 20 points less than this. Niemann and his ballstriking upside at 50/1 are a great value.
Long Shots
Marc Leishman (+13000) - Leishman looks to follow in his countrymen's footsteps and contend once again, hoping to find a better outcome than Adam Scott and Cameron Smith (+2500) did when each finished runner-up the past two weeks. The Aussies did take down the team event this year, and Leishman's share of those FedEx Cup points are the main reason he's even here. We know the individual upside is still here, with top-fives at The Masters and the Travelers Championship, two events where precise iron play is key to success. He started the year with a fourth place in Hawaii at the Sony Open, and he'll look to end with another. Given our exposure at the top, we don't need to wager a ton on Leishman to get a nice return, and we can also hedge our bets with a wager on a Top-10 Finish (+900).