Volatility is the name of the game in golf, and picking winners isn't easy. With fields of 150-plus golfers sometimes being separated by how a putt or two falls each week, predicting golf can be absurdly tough.
We'll never be able to capture everything that goes into a golfer's expectations for a week, but we can try to account for that by simulating out the weekend and seeing what happens.
The Process
Over the years, I have made plenty of tweaks to my original golf model, which uses a combination of the OWGR's field strength numbers and datagolf's field strength numbers to adjust each golfer's score relative to the field (on the PGA Tour, the European Tour, and the Korn Ferry Tour).
The ultimate goal is to place a score from the Waste Management Open, the BMW International Open, and the Knoxville Open on level playing fields. This adjusted strokes metric lets me see how golfers are performing across all tours. From there, a golfer's adjusted stroke data is combined with their round-to-round variance to see how the field is likely to perform when playing out the event thousands of times.
In addition to that long-term adjusted form, I factor in course-level adjustments for course fit.
I run a second model that uses more granular strokes gained data, which allows me to very easily adjust for course fit. The results are averaged out.
I let the data do the talking and don't make many tweaks -- if any. Golfers with a small sample get regressed to a low-end PGA Tour player to round out their samples. Data points are weighted more heavily toward recent performance.
Here are the most likely winners for the Shriners Children's Open, according to the models, and their Golf odds win odds.
| Golfer | FanDuel Salary | Win% | Top- 10% | Made Cut% | FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Hovland | $11,900 | 4.3% | 25.1% | 74.6% | +2000 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | $11,400 | 4.3% | 24.4% | 73.9% | +3000 |
| Abraham Ancer | $11,800 | 4.0% | 23.6% | 73.1% | +3000 |
| Brooks Koepka | $12,000 | 3.6% | 22.6% | 72.2% | +2000 |
| Webb Simpson | $11,500 | 3.4% | 23.5% | 73.3% | +3000 |
| Paul Casey | $10,700 | 3.3% | 22.6% | 71.8% | +3500 |
| Scottie Scheffler | $11,600 | 3.2% | 23.2% | 73.2% | +2500 |
| Sam Burns | $11,700 | 3.1% | 21.7% | 71.2% | +2500 |
| Corey Conners | $10,600 | 2.8% | 20.3% | 70.4% | +3500 |
| Patrick Reed | $10,500 | 2.4% | 18.9% | 69.2% | +3400 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $11,000 | 2.4% | 19.2% | 69.1% | +3000 |
| Will Zalatoris | $11,200 | 2.3% | 18.6% | 69.0% | +3000 |
| Harris English | $10,900 | 2.3% | 19.5% | 69.7% | +3200 |
| Joaquin Niemann | $10,000 | 2.2% | 16.6% | 67.5% | +4800 |
| Cameron Tringale | $10,200 | 2.0% | 17.8% | 68.5% | +4500 |
| Jason Kokrak | $10,100 | 1.9% | 14.7% | 65.0% | +3700 |
| Sungjae Im | $10,800 | 1.9% | 16.7% | 67.3% | +3200 |
| Brian Harman | $9,700 | 1.7% | 13.8% | 64.3% | +7000 |
| Charley Hoffman | $9,700 | 1.7% | 14.6% | 64.3% | +4500 |
| Talor Gooch | $9,400 | 1.5% | 12.7% | 62.2% | +8000 |
| Adam Scott | $9,900 | 1.4% | 12.7% | 62.6% | +4900 |
| Ian Poulter | $9,200 | 1.3% | 12.2% | 62.2% | +13000 |
| Si Woo Kim | $10,300 | 1.3% | 13.3% | 62.6% | +3700 |
| Russell Henley | $9,500 | 1.3% | 12.1% | 61.5% | +7000 |
| Kevin Streelman | $9,400 | 1.3% | 12.5% | 62.4% | +8000 |
| Maverick McNealy | $9,600 | 1.1% | 11.7% | 61.1% | +4500 |
| Marc Leishman | $9,600 | 1.0% | 9.0% | 56.6% | +6500 |
| Ryan Palmer | $8,900 | 1.0% | 10.0% | 58.0% | +13000 |
| Stewart Cink | $8,300 | 1.0% | 9.3% | 57.3% | +13000 |
| Erik van Rooyen | $9,800 | 1.0% | 10.2% | 58.5% | +4400 |
| Taylor Moore | $8,600 | 0.9% | 9.7% | 58.8% | +15000 |
| Aaron Wise | $9,500 | 0.9% | 10.8% | 59.4% | +8500 |
| Emiliano Grillo | $9,100 | 0.9% | 9.8% | 58.2% | +9500 |
| Mito Pereira | $9,800 | 0.8% | 8.8% | 56.7% | +4500 |
| Patton Kizzire | $9,000 | 0.8% | 9.7% | 58.3% | +9500 |
| Seamus Power | $9,100 | 0.7% | 8.5% | 56.3% | +9500 |
| Carlos Ortiz | $8,900 | 0.7% | 8.2% | 55.5% | +9500 |
| Doug Ghim | $8,200 | 0.6% | 7.2% | 54.2% | +15000 |
| Cameron Davis | $9,200 | 0.6% | 6.8% | 52.7% | +9500 |
| Stephan Jaeger | $8,600 | 0.6% | 7.5% | 53.8% | +15000 |
| Charles Howell III | $8,400 | 0.6% | 8.3% | 55.6% | +20000 |
| Lanto Griffin | $7,600 | 0.6% | 7.0% | 53.4% | +15000 |
| Brendon Todd | $8,200 | 0.6% | 7.0% | 54.0% | +20000 |
| Matt Jones | $8,100 | 0.6% | 6.7% | 52.7% | +15000 |
| Hank Lebioda | $7,000 | 0.6% | 6.5% | 52.3% | +20000 |
| Chad Ramey | $7,900 | 0.6% | 7.1% | 54.1% | +15000 |
| Pat Perez | $8,800 | 0.5% | 7.2% | 54.5% | +13000 |
| K.H. Lee | $8,100 | 0.5% | 6.8% | 52.8% | +15000 |
| Matt Wallace | $7,600 | 0.5% | 5.7% | 50.4% | +20000 |
| Joel Dahmen | $8,400 | 0.5% | 6.0% | 50.4% | +15000 |
| Lucas Glover | $8,700 | 0.5% | 5.8% | 50.7% | +9500 |
| Luke List | $8,700 | 0.5% | 7.4% | 55.1% | +13000 |
| Troy Merritt | $8,000 | 0.4% | 6.5% | 52.7% | +15000 |
| Sebastian Munoz | $8,800 | 0.4% | 6.8% | 52.9% | +15000 |
| Sahith Theegala | $8,400 | 0.4% | 6.7% | 52.5% | +9500 |
| Zach Johnson | $8,000 | 0.4% | 5.8% | 50.9% | +20000 |
| Charl Schwartzel | $9,000 | 0.4% | 6.6% | 52.6% | +8500 |
| Adam Hadwin | $8,600 | 0.4% | 6.2% | 51.6% | +15000 |
| Brendan Steele | $8,300 | 0.4% | 5.8% | 50.5% | +20000 |
| Kyle Stanley | $7,400 | 0.4% | 5.7% | 49.9% | +20000 |
| Rickie Fowler | $9,300 | 0.4% | 5.9% | 49.8% | +8000 |
| Martin Laird | $8,100 | 0.4% | 5.4% | 49.3% | +15000 |
| Roger Sloan | $7,800 | 0.4% | 5.5% | 50.0% | +15000 |
| Brandt Snedeker | $8,200 | 0.4% | 4.9% | 48.5% | +20000 |
| Russell Knox | $7,600 | 0.4% | 5.5% | 49.5% | +25000 |
It's not too often we see no golfer with win odds shorter than +2000, but that's what we're getting on FanDuel Sportsbook this week with the Shriners Children's Open.
The model isn't too keen on Brooks Koepka (+2000) and would prefer Viktor Hovland at the same number, though both are slightly overvalued, all things considered. It's hard to knock them as the favorites, but the data just says they are a bit inflated.
That also applies to last week's winner, Sam Burns, and Scottie Scheffler at +2500. Despite the model telling me not to, I have a very strong inclination to bet Scheffler at a scoring-friendly course.
We see value pop a bit farther down the board with Louis Oosthuizen (+3000) and Abraham Ancer (+3000). I will be prioritizing Ancer at TPC Summerlin, where accuracy can provide a boost for golfers.
Other positive expected value emerging in the model comes on Paul Casey (+3500), Joaquin Niemann (+4800), Brian Harman (+7000), and Talor Gooch (+8000). They're all in play for me as outright win bets.
The model also likes a few more long shots, though I'm more inclined to stick with top-10 or top-20 options on these lower-upside options: Ian Poulter (+13000), Ryan Palmer (+13000), and Stewart Cink (+13000).