Volatility is the name of the game in golf, and picking winners isn't easy. With fields of 150-plus golfers sometimes being separated by how a putt or two falls each week, predicting golf can be absurdly tough.
We'll never be able to capture everything that goes into a golfer's expectations for a week, but we can try to account for that by simulating out the weekend and seeing what happens.
The Process
Over the years, I have made plenty of tweaks to my original golf model, which uses a combination of the OWGR's field strength numbers and datagolf's field strength numbers to adjust each golfer's score relative to the field (on the PGA Tour, the European Tour, and the Korn Ferry Tour).
The ultimate goal is to place a score from the Waste Management Open, the BMW International Open, and the Knoxville Open on level playing fields. This adjusted strokes metric lets me see how golfers are performing across all tours. From there, a golfer's adjusted stroke data is combined with their round-to-round variance to see how the field is likely to perform when playing out the event thousands of times.
In addition to that long-term adjusted form, I factor in course-level adjustments for course fit.
I run a second model that uses more granular strokes gained data, which allows me to very easily adjust for course fit. The results are averaged out.
I let the data do the talking and don't make many tweaks -- if any. Golfers with a small sample get regressed to a low-end PGA Tour player to round out their samples. Data points are weighted more heavily toward recent performance.
Here are the most likely winners for THE CJ CUP, according to the models.
| Golfer | FanDuel Salary | Win% | Top- 10% | Made Cut% | FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Thomas | $11,900 | 4.2% | 29.0% | 100.0% | +1300 |
| Jordan Spieth | $11,600 | 4.1% | 26.5% | 100.0% | +2000 |
| Xander Schauffele | $11,800 | 3.9% | 27.7% | 100.0% | +1300 |
| Dustin Johnson | $12,000 | 3.7% | 26.4% | 100.0% | +1200 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | $10,300 | 3.6% | 27.9% | 100.0% | +3000 |
| Viktor Hovland | $10,900 | 3.6% | 27.5% | 100.0% | +2700 |
| Paul Casey | $9,400 | 3.6% | 25.2% | 100.0% | +4100 |
| Cameron Smith | $9,800 | 3.5% | 26.0% | 100.0% | +3400 |
| Rory McIlroy | $11,400 | 3.0% | 24.4% | 100.0% | +1800 |
| Tony Finau | $11,000 | 2.9% | 23.5% | 100.0% | +3000 |
| Sam Burns | $10,800 | 2.8% | 24.6% | 100.0% | +2800 |
| Scottie Scheffler | $10,400 | 2.8% | 24.6% | 100.0% | +2700 |
| Abraham Ancer | $10,000 | 2.8% | 21.6% | 100.0% | +3500 |
| Webb Simpson | $10,200 | 2.3% | 20.8% | 100.0% | +3800 |
| Brooks Koepka | $11,100 | 2.2% | 20.8% | 100.0% | +3200 |
| Collin Morikawa | $11,500 | 2.2% | 21.2% | 100.0% | +1400 |
| Sungjae Im | $10,700 | 2.2% | 21.0% | 100.0% | +2900 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | $9,600 | 2.0% | 19.8% | 100.0% | +4500 |
| Harris English | $9,900 | 1.9% | 18.8% | 100.0% | +3800 |
| Shane Lowry | $9,500 | 1.9% | 18.4% | 100.0% | +4500 |
| Patrick Reed | $9,300 | 1.8% | 16.7% | 100.0% | +8000 |
| Sergio Garcia | $9,200 | 1.7% | 17.9% | 100.0% | +7000 |
| Cameron Tringale | $8,800 | 1.6% | 15.9% | 100.0% | +6500 |
| Kevin Na | $9,000 | 1.6% | 15.7% | 100.0% | +5500 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $10,500 | 1.6% | 17.8% | 100.0% | +3800 |
| Joaquin Niemann | $9,000 | 1.4% | 16.8% | 100.0% | +6000 |
| Alex Noren | $8,600 | 1.4% | 15.1% | 100.0% | +6500 |
| Jason Kokrak | $9,400 | 1.3% | 14.9% | 100.0% | +4800 |
| Charley Hoffman | $8,200 | 1.2% | 13.8% | 100.0% | +8000 |
| Brian Harman | $8,500 | 1.2% | 14.1% | 100.0% | +8000 |
| Max Homa | $9,100 | 1.2% | 13.3% | 100.0% | +7000 |
| Adam Scott | $8,900 | 1.1% | 13.5% | 100.0% | +7000 |
| Talor Gooch | $8,800 | 1.1% | 14.5% | 100.0% | +5500 |
| Aaron Wise | $8,900 | 1.1% | 13.1% | 100.0% | +7000 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $9,500 | 1.1% | 13.4% | 100.0% | +4500 |
| Marc Leishman | $9,100 | 1.0% | 11.9% | 100.0% | +4400 |
| Justin Rose | $9,300 | 1.0% | 12.0% | 100.0% | +7000 |
| Maverick McNealy | $8,600 | 1.0% | 13.4% | 100.0% | +6000 |
| Keegan Bradley | $8,300 | 1.0% | 12.1% | 100.0% | +10000 |
| Harold Varner III | $8,700 | 1.0% | 12.5% | 100.0% | +8000 |
| Kevin Streelman | $8,200 | 1.0% | 11.6% | 100.0% | +10000 |
| Russell Henley | $8,700 | 1.0% | 13.2% | 100.0% | +6000 |
| Ian Poulter | $8,000 | 0.9% | 11.5% | 100.0% | +12000 |
| Siwoo Kim | $9,200 | 0.9% | 11.6% | 100.0% | +5000 |
| Emiliano Grillo | $8,100 | 0.9% | 10.4% | 100.0% | +12000 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $7,800 | 0.8% | 10.9% | 100.0% | +9000 |
| Chris Kirk | $7,700 | 0.8% | 10.7% | 100.0% | +12000 |
| Jason Day | $8,500 | 0.8% | 10.2% | 100.0% | +9000 |
| Erik van Rooyen | $8,400 | 0.7% | 9.6% | 100.0% | +8000 |
| Carlos Ortiz | $7,900 | 0.7% | 9.1% | 100.0% | +12000 |
| Branden Grace | $7,900 | 0.7% | 8.5% | 100.0% | +10000 |
| Kyoung-hoon Lee | $7,800 | 0.7% | 9.8% | 100.0% | +12000 |
| Stewart Cink | $7,600 | 0.6% | 8.3% | 100.0% | +15000 |
| Matt Jones | $7,500 | 0.6% | 7.9% | 100.0% | +15000 |
| Patton Kizzire | $8,000 | 0.5% | 8.1% | 100.0% | +12000 |
| Charl Schwartzel | $7,700 | 0.4% | 6.9% | 100.0% | +15000 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | $7,600 | 0.4% | 7.1% | 100.0% | +15000 |
| Cameron Davis | $8,100 | 0.4% | 8.1% | 100.0% | +9000 |
| Rickie Fowler | $8,300 | 0.4% | 6.3% | 100.0% | +12000 |
| Gary Woodland | $8,400 | 0.3% | 7.1% | 100.0% | +15000 |
| Tom Hoge | $7,500 | 0.3% | 5.3% | 100.0% | +41000 |
| Sebastian J Munoz | $7,800 | 0.3% | 6.2% | 100.0% | +15000 |
| Lucas Glover | $7,500 | 0.3% | 6.4% | 100.0% | +21000 |
| Harry Higgs | $7,300 | 0.3% | 5.8% | 100.0% | +41000 |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | $7,600 | 0.3% | 4.5% | 100.0% | +15000 |
Coinciding with the win odds at Golf odds, the sims have this one rating out pretty flat at the top. That makes for minimal value among the favorites, however, and it isn't until Viktor Hovland (+2700) until we hit a break-even point.
That works for me because I like Hovland's blend of accuracy and distance this week. He also has the scoring potential to pick apart The Summit Club.
Value is popping up for Louis Oosthuizen (+3000) just because his form is consistently good, and that makes him somewhat appealing but probably not a place I'll actually get. That's because I prefer the big-hitting Tony Finau (+3000) who should be able to score low at a course such as this.
But it's Cameron Smith (+3400) where I'm really drawn this week. The large greens at The Summit Club should correlate with a de-emphasis on iron play, and that helps Smith, who is a competent-but-not-elite ball-striker. He sits first in birdie rate over the past 50 rounds, as well, per FantasyNational.
Paul Casey (+4100) sets up for a bounce-back play, as well. He missed the cut last week due to poor putting, which is always in his range of outcomes. However, the tee-to-green play for Casey and long-term form makes him a good bet this week for at least a top-10 if you can't get yourself to go all-in on Casey to convert a win.
Other golfers whosee odds in the simulations meet or exceed their betting odds include Cameron Tringale (+6500), Sergio Garcia (+7000), Patrick Reed (+8000), Charley Hoffman (+8000), and Brian Harman (+8000). Reed at that number is extra appealing if we play the angle of the large greens making approach play less vital than usual.
With history not being kind to true long-shots in no-cut, loaded fields, I'm going to be reserving any true long shot bets to top-10s and top-20s: Cameron Davis, Harold Varner, and Kevin Streelman.