Volatility is the name of the game in golf, and picking winners isn't easy. With fields of 150-plus golfers sometimes being separated by how a putt or two falls each week, predicting golf can be absurdly tough.
We'll never be able to capture everything that goes into a golfer's expectations for a week, but we can try to account for that by simulating out the weekend and seeing what happens.
The Process
Over the years, I have made plenty of tweaks to my original golf model, which uses a combination of the OWGR's field strength numbers and datagolf's field strength numbers to adjust each golfer's score relative to the field (on the PGA Tour, the European Tour, and the Korn Ferry Tour).
The ultimate goal is to place a score from the Waste Management Open, the BMW International Open, and the Knoxville Open on level playing fields. This adjusted strokes metric lets me see how golfers are performing across all tours. From there, a golfer's adjusted stroke data is combined with their round-to-round variance to see how the field is likely to perform when playing out the event thousands of times.
In addition to that long-term adjusted form, I factor in course-level adjustments for course fit.
I run a second model that uses more granular strokes gained data, which allows me to very easily adjust for course fit. The results are averaged out.
I let the data do the talking and don't make many tweaks -- if any. Golfers with a small sample get regressed to a low-end PGA Tour player to round out their samples. Data points are weighted more heavily toward recent performance.
Here are the most likely winners for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, according to the models, as well as their Golf odds win odds.
| Golfer | FanDuel Salary | Win% | Top- 10% | Made Cut% | FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Fitzpatrick | $11,900 | 6.9% | 35.6% | 84.6% | +1000 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | $11,700 | 5.6% | 29.8% | 81.9% | +1400 |
| Patrick Reed | $11,800 | 5.0% | 28.3% | 80.9% | +1800 |
| Seamus Power | $11,500 | 3.2% | 23.5% | 77.6% | +2200 |
| Mito Pereira | $11,600 | 2.9% | 22.6% | 77.8% | +2000 |
| Adam Hadwin | $11,000 | 2.7% | 19.5% | 74.8% | +3100 |
| Chad Ramey | $10,700 | 2.6% | 20.7% | 76.8% | +3300 |
| Hank Lebioda | $9,400 | 2.2% | 17.1% | 72.6% | +6500 |
| Sahith Theegala | $10,500 | 2.1% | 17.1% | 73.0% | +3400 |
| Matthias Schwab | $10,800 | 2.1% | 18.2% | 74.1% | +3300 |
| Alex Smalley | $9,200 | 2.1% | 16.8% | 72.8% | +6500 |
| Stephan Jaeger | $9,700 | 2.0% | 17.2% | 72.7% | +5000 |
| Ryan Armour | $9,700 | 1.7% | 15.4% | 70.7% | +5000 |
| Danny Willett | $11,300 | 1.6% | 14.9% | 70.6% | +2700 |
| Scott Stallings | $9,900 | 1.6% | 14.6% | 70.9% | +4100 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $10,300 | 1.6% | 15.1% | 70.7% | +4100 |
| Taylor Pendrith | $10,200 | 1.5% | 14.7% | 70.2% | +4100 |
| Russell Knox | $9,800 | 1.5% | 14.6% | 70.7% | +5000 |
| Mark Hubbard | $9,200 | 1.4% | 14.5% | 70.4% | +6500 |
| Nick Taylor | $8,900 | 1.4% | 12.4% | 68.5% | +7000 |
| Lucas Herbert | $9,500 | 1.4% | 13.8% | 69.1% | +5500 |
| Nick Hardy | $9,400 | 1.4% | 14.1% | 69.8% | +5500 |
| David Lipsky | $9,800 | 1.3% | 13.3% | 68.6% | +5000 |
| Aaron Rai | $9,100 | 1.3% | 14.5% | 70.7% | +6500 |
| Bo Hoag | $8,700 | 1.3% | 12.5% | 68.1% | +8000 |
| Brian Stuard | $8,700 | 1.2% | 13.2% | 69.0% | +8000 |
| Guido Migliozzi | $10,900 | 1.2% | 12.4% | 68.1% | +3300 |
| Vincent Whaley | $8,500 | 1.2% | 11.9% | 67.4% | +10000 |
| Jason Dufner | $9,000 | 1.2% | 12.9% | 68.6% | +6500 |
| Denny McCarthy | $10,100 | 1.1% | 12.9% | 68.8% | +4100 |
| Adam Svensson | $8,100 | 1.1% | 12.6% | 68.4% | +12000 |
| Andrew Novak | $7,800 | 1.1% | 11.1% | 66.1% | +15000 |
| Joseph Bramlett | $9,600 | 1.1% | 13.6% | 68.7% | +5000 |
| Dylan Frittelli | $9,900 | 1.0% | 10.9% | 66.8% | +5000 |
| Anirban Lahiri | $8,800 | 1.0% | 12.0% | 66.6% | +8000 |
| Peter Uihlein | $9,500 | 1.0% | 11.2% | 66.3% | +5500 |
| Lee Hodges | $8,400 | 1.0% | 10.9% | 66.0% | +10000 |
| Greyson Sigg | $8,500 | 1.0% | 11.2% | 66.1% | +10000 |
| Cameron Percy | $8,500 | 0.9% | 10.1% | 64.6% | +10000 |
| Seth Reeves | $8,200 | 0.9% | 10.3% | 65.0% | +10000 |
| Garrick Higgo | $10,400 | 0.9% | 8.9% | 62.6% | +4100 |
| Thomas Detry | $10,000 | 0.9% | 10.9% | 66.2% | +4100 |
| Matthew NeSmith | $9,300 | 0.9% | 10.4% | 65.8% | +6500 |
| Hayden Buckley | $11,200 | 0.8% | 11.3% | 66.4% | +2700 |
| Austin Eckroat | $8,900 | 0.8% | 9.7% | 63.6% | +7000 |
| Kramer Hickok | $8,900 | 0.8% | 10.7% | 65.4% | +8000 |
| Max McGreevy | $8,000 | 0.8% | 9.1% | 63.0% | +12000 |
| Camilo Villegas | $8,300 | 0.7% | 9.3% | 63.3% | +10000 |
| Vaughn Taylor | $7,900 | 0.7% | 8.5% | 61.9% | +15000 |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | $9,300 | 0.7% | 10.0% | 64.1% | +6500 |
| Danny Lee | $7,900 | 0.7% | 8.6% | 61.8% | +15000 |
| Davis Riley | $8,600 | 0.7% | 7.9% | 61.9% | +8000 |
| Chase Seiffert | $8,000 | 0.6% | 7.8% | 60.9% | +12000 |
| Ben Kohles | $7,600 | 0.6% | 8.3% | 62.2% | +21000 |
| Sepp Straka | $8,800 | 0.6% | 7.1% | 59.5% | +8000 |
| David Skinns | $7,800 | 0.6% | 7.6% | 59.5% | +15000 |
| Austin Smotherman | $7,700 | 0.6% | 7.8% | 60.9% | +15000 |
| Brandon Hagy | $9,000 | 0.6% | 7.6% | 59.9% | +7000 |
| Erik Barnes | $7,400 | 0.6% | 6.7% | 59.0% | +32000 |
| Dylan Wu | $8,200 | 0.6% | 8.5% | 62.1% | +12000 |
| Beau Hossler | $8,700 | 0.6% | 7.2% | 60.2% | +8000 |
| Dawie van der Walt | $8,400 | 0.5% | 8.3% | 63.0% | +10000 |
| Kurt Kitayama | $8,400 | 0.5% | 7.4% | 60.2% | +10000 |
| Harry Hall | $9,000 | 0.5% | 7.1% | 59.7% | +6500 |
| Justin Lower | $7,900 | 0.5% | 7.2% | 59.7% | +15000 |
| Luke Donald | $8,000 | 0.5% | 6.3% | 57.5% | +12000 |
| Callum Tarren | $7,600 | 0.5% | 6.4% | 59.2% | +21000 |
| Peter Malnati | $9,100 | 0.5% | 6.6% | 58.5% | +6500 |
In a field lacking in big names, we don't really have any heavy, heavy favorites, and the man at the top of the betting board and simulations -- Matt Fitzpatrick (+1000) -- is a bit overvalued, according to the simulations.
The same can be said for Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+1400). My numbers have Fitz around +1400 and Bezuidenhout at around +1700.
Patrick Reed (+1800) is a pretty fair value overall and could see his odds shorten the closer we get to Thursday due to his name value relative to the rest of the field. He's my preference at the top of the field -- and the model's as well -- at the number.
Though the model is a tinge low on them, I have interest in Adam Hadwin (+3100) and Chad Ramey (+3300); both rate out well in my stats model for the week.
My sims really like Hank Lebioda (+6500) and would consider him a fair value if he were listed at +4500. He ranks fourth in datagolf's true strokes gained over the past six months among this field.
Other golfers who outperform their win odds include Alex Smalley (+6500), Stephan Jaeger (+5000), Nick Taylor (+7000), Bo Hoag (+8000), Brian Stuard (+8000), and Vincent Whaley (+10000).