After numerous scoring-fests, the PGA Tour heads to Torrey Pines (South and North) for an event that generally plays tougher than the early January events.
The Famers Insurance Open has had just one winning score lower than 20-under over the past 22 years. Tiger Woods was -22 here in 1999 (his first of seven(!) wins at Torrey Pines), and Justin Rose got to -21 back in 2019.
What does it all mean for this week? Let's take a look.
You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.
Patrick Reed's embedded ball debacle.
Overall, though, the two-course setup (one pre-cut round at the South and North courses for all golfers followed by two weekend rounds at the South Course) generally leads to middling scores and puts more of an emphasis on saving par than simply making birdie after birdie.
That's not to say that the course setups are USGA havens or anything, but it's worth noting.
Torrey Pines (South Course) Information
Par: 72
Distance: 7,765
Average Green Size: 5,000 square feet
Green Type: Poa annua
Stimpmeter: N/A
Torrey Pines (North Course) Information
Par: 72
Distance: 7,258
Average Green Size: 6,000 square feet
Green Type: Bentgrass
Stimpmeter: N/A
Of note, we've got varied putting surfaces across the two courses, yet poa and bentgrass comp together well enough for sticking just with poa if we want to include putting surface splits.
At 5,000 square feet, the average green on the South Course is smaller than the typical PGA course (which averages out at 6,000 square feet).
Key Stats
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Driving Distance
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- Birdie or Better Rate
- Strokes Gained: Putting on Poa/Bentgrass
When we're looking for solid scores on tougher courses, it's okay to focus on all-around play: driving, irons, wedges, and putting.
After all, that's what the data says matters, anyway.
The South Course is one of the hardest courses to putt on (specifically from inside 5 and 15 feet), and distance is a premium this week with such long holes. Proximity shots from 175 to 200 and from 250-plus yards are up from the Tour average at Torrey Pines, too.
Golfers With Great Course/Event History
Past winners in the field include Patrick Reed (2021), Marc Leishman (2020), Justin Rose (2019), Jason Day (2015, 2018), Jon Rahm (2017), Brandt Snedeker (2012, 2106), Scott Stallings (2014), Nick Watney (2009), Phil Mickelson (1993, 2000, 2001). Rahm won the U.S. Open at the South Course last year, as well.
Golfers with at least 1.0 strokes gained per round over at least 8 rounds across the South and North courses, via FantasyNational, include Jon Rahm (2.7), Patrick Reed (2.0), Tony Finau (1.9), Brandt Snedeker (1.8), Matthew Wolff (1.7), Justin Thomas (1.5), Marc Leishman (1.5), Jason Day (1.4), Alexander Noren (1.4), Lanto Griffin (1.3), Hideki Matsuyama (1.3), Ryan Palmer (1.3), Keegan Bradley (1.3), Talor Gooch (1.2), Dustin Johnson (1.1), Phil Mickelson (1.1), Justin Rose (1.1), Francesco Molinari (1.1), Will Zalatoris (1.0), Jonas Blixt (1.0), and Bill Haas (1.0).
Win Simulations
Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their Golf odds win odds.
| Golfer | FanDuel Salary | Win% | Top- 10% | Made Cut% | FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Rahm | $12,200 | 12.3% | 50.4% | 87.0% | +750 |
| Justin Thomas | $12,000 | 6.2% | 34.2% | 78.3% | +1300 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | $11,600 | 4.8% | 30.9% | 77.0% | +1900 |
| Daniel Berger | $11,300 | 4.4% | 29.3% | 76.5% | +2100 |
| Xander Schauffele | $11,900 | 4.0% | 26.4% | 74.3% | +1700 |
| Sam Burns | $11,200 | 3.7% | 27.2% | 75.0% | +2400 |
| Scottie Scheffler | $10,900 | 3.5% | 25.0% | 73.3% | +3400 |
| Dustin Johnson | $11,500 | 3.2% | 25.3% | 73.0% | +2100 |
| Jordan Spieth | $10,700 | 2.8% | 22.6% | 70.7% | +3400 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $11,700 | 2.8% | 21.0% | 69.9% | +2100 |
| Sungjae Im | $11,000 | 2.4% | 20.7% | 69.1% | +3200 |
| Tony Finau | $11,100 | 2.2% | 19.3% | 69.4% | +2900 |
| Talor Gooch | $10,200 | 1.9% | 16.8% | 66.5% | +5500 |
| Will Zalatoris | $10,600 | 1.9% | 15.8% | 65.2% | +2900 |
| Corey Conners | $10,400 | 1.7% | 17.7% | 67.2% | +4600 |
| Cameron Tringale | $9,600 | 1.7% | 16.3% | 66.6% | +10000 |
| Marc Leishman | $10,500 | 1.5% | 14.9% | 64.7% | +3700 |
| Brooks Koepka | $10,800 | 1.5% | 15.3% | 65.0% | +3600 |
| Aaron Wise | $9,400 | 1.3% | 14.3% | 64.7% | +9000 |
| Maverick McNealy | $9,900 | 1.2% | 13.7% | 62.0% | +7000 |
| Justin Rose | $10,100 | 1.1% | 13.1% | 61.7% | +6500 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $8,700 | 1.1% | 12.3% | 60.9% | +10000 |
| Joaquin Niemann | $10,000 | 1.1% | 12.8% | 62.0% | +7500 |
| Charley Hoffman | $8,900 | 1.1% | 12.9% | 62.0% | +12000 |
| Taylor Moore | $8,300 | 1.0% | 10.5% | 59.3% | +19000 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | $9,500 | 1.0% | 12.0% | 59.4% | +7500 |
| Keegan Bradley | $9,600 | 0.9% | 10.4% | 58.2% | +6500 |
| Luke List | $9,100 | 0.9% | 11.4% | 60.4% | +9000 |
| Max Homa | $9,500 | 0.9% | 10.8% | 58.4% | +5500 |
| Patrick Reed | $10,300 | 0.9% | 10.9% | 59.0% | +4600 |
| Lanto Griffin | $9,400 | 0.8% | 10.8% | 59.4% | +7500 |
| Alex Noren | $9,000 | 0.8% | 10.1% | 58.0% | +12000 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | $9,700 | 0.7% | 9.1% | 56.8% | +7500 |
| Billy Horschel | $9,800 | 0.7% | 9.8% | 57.1% | +7500 |
| Ryan Palmer | $9,700 | 0.7% | 9.2% | 55.1% | +5500 |
| Matthew Wolff | $9,900 | 0.7% | 8.1% | 54.3% | +7000 |
| Alex Smalley | $8,500 | 0.6% | 9.3% | 56.8% | +19000 |
| Matt Jones | $8,700 | 0.5% | 8.1% | 54.8% | +16000 |
| Keith Mitchell | $9,000 | 0.5% | 7.1% | 53.6% | +10000 |
| Kevin Streelman | $8,600 | 0.5% | 7.6% | 52.6% | +19000 |
| Siwoo Kim | $9,800 | 0.5% | 5.6% | 49.9% | +5500 |
| Tom Hoge | $8,900 | 0.5% | 7.7% | 53.8% | +8000 |
| Cameron Davis | $9,200 | 0.5% | 6.0% | 50.4% | +9000 |
| Carlos Ortiz | $8,800 | 0.4% | 7.1% | 52.4% | +16000 |
| Guillermo Mito Pereira | $9,100 | 0.4% | 7.4% | 52.1% | +12000 |
| Emiliano Grillo | $8,300 | 0.4% | 5.9% | 48.8% | +19000 |
| Joel Dahmen | $8,700 | 0.4% | 5.9% | 49.5% | +16000 |
| Pat Perez | $7,900 | 0.4% | 4.9% | 47.0% | +28000 |
| Patton Kizzire | $8,500 | 0.4% | 6.3% | 50.3% | +19000 |
| Gary Woodland | $8,800 | 0.4% | 6.7% | 51.4% | +16000 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $8,600 | 0.4% | 6.4% | 49.3% | +10000 |
| Harry Higgs | $8,100 | 0.4% | 4.8% | 47.0% | +25000 |
| Sebastian Munoz | $8,400 | 0.4% | 4.9% | 47.7% | +19000 |
| C.T. Pan | $8,100 | 0.3% | 5.1% | 46.4% | +28000 |
| Kyoung-hoon Lee | $8,400 | 0.3% | 5.7% | 49.5% | +19000 |
| Hank Lebioda | $7,700 | 0.3% | 5.6% | 48.7% | +35000 |
| Brandt Snedeker | $8,900 | 0.3% | 5.1% | 46.9% | +10000 |
| Adam Hadwin | $8,800 | 0.3% | 6.0% | 50.4% | +16000 |
| Vincent Whaley | $7,900 | 0.3% | 5.3% | 47.1% | +28000 |
| Aaron Rai | $8,300 | 0.3% | 4.8% | 45.9% | +28000 |
| Doug Ghim | $8,400 | 0.3% | 4.4% | 46.4% | +19000 |
| Adam Svensson | $7,900 | 0.3% | 4.4% | 44.0% | +19000 |
| Jason Day | $9,300 | 0.3% | 5.7% | 50.3% | +9000 |
| Hudson Swafford | $9,000 | 0.3% | 5.3% | 47.6% | +12000 |
| Robert Streb | $7,500 | 0.3% | 4.5% | 44.8% | +43000 |
| Chez Reavie | $8,200 | 0.3% | 3.8% | 44.5% | +28000 |
| Adam Long | $8,200 | 0.3% | 3.8% | 42.5% | +28000 |
| Danny Lee | $7,700 | 0.3% | 4.2% | 45.7% | +35000 |
| Rickie Fowler | $9,200 | 0.3% | 3.8% | 44.0% | +9000 |
Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets
Honestly, Rahm (+750) is a fair bet this week at an event he has won in the past. My model would put Rahm's number at around +700, so while we're not really getting screaming value, it's a strong option to start off a card. His all-around game should keep him in the hunt at Torrey yet again.
After Rahm, I'm eyeing -- in descending order -- Scottie Scheffler (+3400), Daniel Berger (+2100), Bryson DeChambeau (+1900), and Jordan Spieth (+3400). Scheffler looks to be pretty undervalued (my model puts him at +2700); Berger, DeChambeau, and Spieth are fair values toward the top of the board.
I've bet Scheffler and Spieth so far at the longest numbers of the four just mentioned.
Top-10 options include Cameron Tringale, Taylor Moore, Charley Hoffman, Aaron Wise, and Jhonattan Vegas.
Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the Farmers Insurance Open
All stats cited below originate at FantasyNational. Strokes gained data includes stats from the past calendar year and is adjusted based on my field strength and recency tweaks. Putting surface splits also come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds when possible -- unless noted. All ranks and percentile ranks are among the field. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.
Best of the Best
Jon Rahm (FanDuel Salary: $12,200 | Golf odds Win Odds: +750) - There is just really no way to get away from Rahm as the best play based on how the salaries fall this week. He has an all-around game that is perfect for Torrey Pines (evidenced by his success here) and enters with easily the best form of any golfer in the field. Rahm's worst percentile ranking across the four strokes gained stats in my model: 90th percentile in adjusted around the green play over the past year. Play him in cash games and don't fully fade him in tournaments unless you're really down for the game theory angle this week.
Scottie Scheffler ($10,900 | +3400) - Scheffler's name could get lost in the shuffle with plenty of studs starting at Torrey Pines, but he deserves attention at a sub-$11,000 FanDuel salary. Scheffler rates out in the 90th percentile in adjusted tee to green play and is long off the tee (78th). Scheffler finished 25th at The American Express last week with good iron play and ended November with two top-five results.
Others to Consider:
Bryson DeChambeau ($11,600 | +1900) - Had slightly positive putting at the TOC, which is good news for the new greens book changes. Rest of the game is there.
Jordan Spieth ($10,700 | +3400) - Dominant poa/bentgrass putter; elite from fairway through green right now.
Talor Gooch ($10,200 | +5500) - Has 96th-percentile irons and 85th-plus-percentile putting on poa and bentgrass.
Mid-Range Picks
Matthew Wolff ($9,900 | +7000) - Wolff's great form didn't translate to his return last week when he missed the cut at The American Express while racking up poor ball-striking in his round at the Stadium Course. But over the past six months, Wolff ranks 23rd in true strokes gained, via datagolf, and the short game should help out this week at an all-around test. He withdrew from this event last year but was 21st the year prior and was 15th at the U.S. Open here a year ago, as well.
Aaron Wise ($9,400 | +9000) - Wise's good form will be tested in his return; he hasn't played since mid-November. Prior to that, he had started the new PGA Tour season with five straight top-26 finishes. Wise has struggled at Torrey historically (71st, cut, cut) but has much better form now than then.
Others to Consider:
Maverick McNealy ($9,900 | +7000) - A player on the rise with great putting splits on these surfaces.
Lanto Griffin ($9,400 | +7500) - Great form being helped by putting but an all-around performer; two top-12s here in his past three.
Luke List ($9,100 | +9000) - Four straight made cuts and two top-12 finishes the past four years here; decidedly less dreadful putting on poa than bent.
Low-Salaried Picks
Tom Hoge ($8,900 | +8000) - Hoge has been hot-and-cold at the Farmers: 12th, cut, 5th, cut since 2018. Overall, he is on the upswing. He could catch popularity after his solo second at The American Express last week, but the total case for him is still good anyway: he's got 87th-percentile adjusted irons and is close to the baseline in putting on the surfaces in play this week.
Gary Woodland ($8,800 | +16000) - The bottom falls out of this field pretty quickly, so we can at least justify an upside swing on Woodland if we're looking for some salary savings. Woodland has missed three straight cuts now and missed at The AmEx last week. However, he's gaining distance and is a plus on the approach scale (78th percentile). He's finished 20th, 12th, 9th, cut, and 48th here the past five years.
Others to Consider:
Charley Hoffman ($8,900 | +12000) - Good win odds in my model for the salary; should gain distance and putt well on poa.
Jhonattan Vegas ($8,700 | +10000) - Another value golfer with a distance advantage.
Joseph Bramlett ($7,900 | +16000) - Tee-to-green play has been awesome lately; hits it super far, too.
Adam Schenk ($7,700 | +35000) - Tons of missed cuts make him look worse than he is; putts well on bent and poa.