Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
Match Play! An exciting break from stroke play awaits this week with just one additional tournament before The Masters. We'll break down which golfers we like to come out of the group play -- as well as a few bets to win the whole thing. Generally, this is a good week to bet day-by-day matchups and then work out a winner once the bracket is set, so consider the group winners that we highlight as good head-to-head plays in the group stage.
For a detailed history on how different seedings have fared here in the past, check out the course primer.
Group Stage Bets
Cameron Tringale (+320 To Win Group 3) - Tringale matches up against two young studs in Viktor Hovland and Will Zalatoris as well as recent PGA Tour winner Sepp Straka. Both Hovland and Zalatoris have their sites set on Augusta, and Tringale has flashed some high-end, inconsistent form over the past six months. Since finishing runner up at the ZOZO Championship, he has finishes of MC, 7th, MC, 3rd, MC, 13th, MC, and MC, and he's on a three-event streak of losing at least 1.8 strokes with the putter. He's due for a couple hot rounds.
Kevin Kisner (+300 To Win Group 6) - Kisner is a proud, tough golfer who revels in match play format and was miffed to be left off the loaded U.S. Ryder Cup team. He won this event in 2019 and was runner up in 2018. He failed to win his group last year, yet he did defeat the favorite in his group once again this year -- Justin Thomas. JT has not made the knockout round since 2018, and after consecutive weeks and a near-miss at the Valspar Championship, Thomas is another who could be conserving his energy for The Masters. That leaves this group ripe for the taking.
Richard Bland (+360 To Win Group 9) - After a few weeks off nursing an injury, along with The Masters coming up, it's hard to imagine Bryson DeChambeau is in any condition to play as much golf as will be required to advance through the knockout round. He's the favorite in Group 9 where Bland has the longest odds. The 49-year-old Englishman made some headlines stateside with a remarkable win at the Betfred British Masters last year, but since then he's maintained a high level of play on the DP World Tour. He has six top-five finishes since then, and a second-round 67 at the U.S. Open put him near the top of the leaderboard heading into the weekend. He's got nothing to lose here this week, and that mindset should benefit him -- even if he likely lacks the endurance to survive in the knockout round.
Justin Rose (+280 To Win Group 11) - Group 11 is quite the gang. The favorite is Jordan Spieth at just +200, and he's out of form. He will be dying to get right in the leadup to Augusta, and an early exit before defending at the Valero Texas Open could prove to benefit him later. That leaves Rose, Adam Scott (+250), and Keegan Bradley (+280). Rose is preferred of that lot despite a poor stretch in Florida that saw missed cuts at both Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass. He won his group in 2019.
Daniel Berger (+210 To Win Group 13) - Expect to see Berger on a mission after a kerfuffle in the final round of THE PLAYERS where Hovland and Joel Dahmen disagreed with Berger on a drop. It's always been Berger against the world, and he should thrive in match play. He won two of his three matches last year before eventually losing his spot in the knockout round in a playoff against Erik Van Rooyen, whom Berger soundly beat 6 and 4 in group play. He won his match in the Ryder Cup as well, giving him three wins in his last four match play contests.
Shane Lowry (+220 To Win Group 16) - This group is up for grabs with favorite Brooks Koepka (+210) only slightly ahead of Lowry. The Irishman is playing great golf. He posted a runner-up at PGA National followed by T13 at THE PLAYERS. He's doing it with elite iron play, gaining 6.8 strokes and 3.9 strokes with approaches in those respective events. According to stats from Fantasy National Golf Club, Lowry is sixth on the entire PGA Tour in his last 50 PGA rounds in that category.
Outright Bets to Win
Daniel Berger (+2900) - Berger has played like one of the best players in the world for the past two and a half years, yet he's without a true marquee win in that span. He's played well enough to win a major championship, but he could settle for a WGC this week in one of his best formats.
Shane Lowry (+3400) - Lowry is not a proven match-play guy, and he'll have a tall task out of the gate in knockout play if Jon Rahm wins Group 1. That's no guarantee though, and aside from Rahm, Group 1 is among the weakest pods. Lowry's current form implies he can charge all the way to the end.