We are only one week out from The Masters, but we can't overlook this week's Valero Texas Open by any means.
It's a great gear-up tournament for those competing at Augusta next week, and its field isn't lacking some big names.
Let's dig into the course, the key stats, the win simulations, and best bets of the week.
You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.
Poa Trivialis overseed
Stimpmeter: 11
Past 5 Winning Scores: -18, -20, -17, -12, -12
Past 5 Cut Lines: +2, -1, +1, Even, Even
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained: Around the Green, Strokes Gained: Putting, Birdie or Better Rate
While TPC San Antonio's Oaks Course is long for a par 72, it's pretty wide, and it also boasts the least penal rough on the PGA Tour, via datagolf. Jordan Spieth won here last year while spraying it all over the place off the tee, and 5 of 11 golfers tied for the top 10 were outside the top 50 in driving accuracy.
That said, it's still hard to gain strokes here from shorter approaches within 150 yards, and so long as you don't miss in the bunkers but instead stay in the rough, you'll be okay -- statistically speaking.
All told, there isn't a specific archetype of golfer who has a huge leg up, but if anything, we could look at strokes gained: fairway through green (approach, around the green, and putting).
Golfers With Great Course/Event History
Past winners in the field include Jordan Spieth (2021), Corey Conners (2019), Andrew Landry (2018), Kevin Chappell (2017), Charley Hoffman (2016), Jimmy Walker (2015), Martin Laird (2013), Brendan Steele (2011), and Zach Johnson (2008 and 2009).
The following golfers have at least 8 rounds at TPC San Antonio with an adjusted strokes gained average of at least 1.2, via DataGolf: Corey Conners (+2.19), Charley Hoffman (+2.17), Jordan Spieth (+2.06), Brandt Snedeker (+1.99), Lucas Glover (+1.51), Kevin Streelman (+1.49), Martin Laird (+1.41), Rickie Fowler (+1.41), Kyoung-Hoon Lee (+1.41), Chris Kirk (+1.37), and Matt Kuchar (+1.35).
Win Simulations
Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their Golf odds win odds.
| Golfer | FanDuel Salary | Win% | Top- 10% | Made Cut% | FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | $12,000 | 6.5% | 33.7% | 77.4% | +700 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $11,700 | 5.2% | 27.7% | 72.8% | +1700 |
| Maverick McNealy | $10,900 | 2.9% | 20.0% | 66.7% | +3400 |
| Corey Conners | $11,600 | 2.7% | 20.4% | 67.5% | +1600 |
| Abraham Ancer | $11,400 | 2.5% | 18.9% | 66.9% | +2100 |
| Jordan Spieth | $11,900 | 2.5% | 17.8% | 64.2% | +1100 |
| Keegan Bradley | $11,000 | 2.3% | 17.4% | 63.1% | +3300 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | $11,500 | 2.2% | 18.7% | 65.8% | +2400 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $10,400 | 2.0% | 16.6% | 63.7% | +4200 |
| Gary Woodland | $10,800 | 1.8% | 14.4% | 60.9% | +3400 |
| Tony Finau | $11,100 | 1.8% | 14.8% | 62.0% | +3600 |
| Luke List | $9,900 | 1.7% | 14.9% | 61.2% | +5000 |
| Chris Kirk | $10,500 | 1.7% | 14.8% | 61.6% | +3700 |
| Ian Poulter | $9,200 | 1.6% | 14.6% | 60.2% | +8000 |
| Mito Pereira | $9,300 | 1.6% | 14.3% | 59.7% | +7500 |
| Patton Kizzire | $10,000 | 1.5% | 12.1% | 57.8% | +5000 |
| Adam Hadwin | $10,700 | 1.5% | 13.1% | 57.8% | +3300 |
| Alex Smalley | $8,700 | 1.4% | 12.1% | 56.8% | +10000 |
| Pat Perez | $8,300 | 1.4% | 13.2% | 58.9% | +12000 |
| Kyoung-hoon Lee | $9,000 | 1.3% | 11.1% | 55.1% | +8000 |
| Jason Day | $10,600 | 1.3% | 10.9% | 54.6% | +4100 |
| Kevin Streelman | $10,300 | 1.3% | 12.3% | 57.6% | +4200 |
| Matt Kuchar | $9,700 | 1.2% | 11.4% | 56.2% | +6500 |
| Lanto Griffin | $9,200 | 1.2% | 11.7% | 56.2% | +8000 |
| Troy Merritt | $8,600 | 1.2% | 12.2% | 57.4% | +10000 |
| Denny McCarthy | $9,100 | 1.1% | 10.9% | 54.6% | +8000 |
| Martin Laird | $8,800 | 1.1% | 10.1% | 53.7% | +8000 |
| Russell Knox | $9,800 | 1.0% | 11.2% | 55.4% | +5000 |
| Siwoo Kim | $11,200 | 1.0% | 12.1% | 56.6% | +3100 |
| Scott Stallings | $9,500 | 1.0% | 9.4% | 52.0% | +6500 |
| Richard Bland | $8,800 | 1.0% | 10.7% | 54.1% | +10000 |
| Taylor Moore | $8,300 | 0.9% | 10.7% | 55.7% | +12000 |
| Sahith Theegala | $9,900 | 0.9% | 9.3% | 52.2% | +5000 |
| Charles Howell III | $9,000 | 0.9% | 10.4% | 53.9% | +8000 |
| Aaron Rai | $8,500 | 0.9% | 8.6% | 51.2% | +12000 |
| Doug Ghim | $9,100 | 0.9% | 8.9% | 51.3% | +7500 |
| Matthias Schwab | $8,400 | 0.9% | 9.3% | 52.4% | +12000 |
| Brian Stuard | $8,600 | 0.8% | 8.3% | 50.4% | +10000 |
| J.J. Spaun | $7,600 | 0.8% | 8.7% | 51.2% | +16000 |
| Rickie Fowler | $9,600 | 0.7% | 9.0% | 51.3% | +5500 |
| Brendon Todd | $8,100 | 0.7% | 8.4% | 48.3% | +16000 |
| Adam Long | $7,000 | 0.7% | 7.6% | 47.1% | +21000 |
| Nick Taylor | $8,300 | 0.7% | 7.4% | 48.8% | +12000 |
| Beau Hossler | $8,400 | 0.7% | 7.3% | 47.8% | +12000 |
| Brendan Steele | $9,800 | 0.7% | 7.1% | 46.7% | +5000 |
| Davis Riley | $9,500 | 0.7% | 8.0% | 48.9% | +5500 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $8,100 | 0.6% | 6.9% | 47.4% | +15000 |
| Chad Ramey | $8,900 | 0.6% | 7.3% | 47.7% | +8000 |
| Matt Jones | $8,900 | 0.6% | 8.6% | 51.6% | +10000 |
| Kramer Hickok | $8,900 | 0.6% | 8.0% | 50.0% | +10000 |
| Andrew Putnam | $7,900 | 0.6% | 6.2% | 46.8% | +17000 |
| Dylan Frittelli | $8,700 | 0.6% | 6.7% | 45.7% | +9000 |
| Charley Hoffman | $10,200 | 0.6% | 7.1% | 47.8% | +4600 |
| Zach Johnson | $7,700 | 0.6% | 7.0% | 46.6% | +21000 |
| C.T. Pan | $8,500 | 0.6% | 7.9% | 50.3% | +12000 |
| Hank Lebioda | $7,900 | 0.6% | 7.2% | 48.5% | +17000 |
| Robert MacIntyre | $9,400 | 0.6% | 7.5% | 48.1% | +6500 |
| David Lipsky | $8,400 | 0.6% | 7.4% | 47.8% | +12000 |
| Danny Lee | $8,400 | 0.6% | 6.7% | 46.6% | +12000 |
| Garrick Higgo | $8,200 | 0.6% | 6.3% | 45.7% | +15000 |
| Vincent Whaley | $7,500 | 0.6% | 6.6% | 46.5% | +21000 |
| Chez Reavie | $7,700 | 0.6% | 6.6% | 46.0% | +21000 |
| Ryan Palmer | $10,100 | 0.5% | 6.4% | 46.6% | +5000 |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | $9,400 | 0.5% | 7.0% | 48.1% | +6500 |
| Lucas Glover | $9,000 | 0.5% | 6.9% | 47.0% | +8000 |
| Anirban Lahiri | $8,700 | 0.5% | 5.9% | 44.6% | +10000 |
| Matthew NeSmith | $8,500 | 0.5% | 6.4% | 46.4% | +9000 |
| Branden Grace | $8,300 | 0.5% | 6.6% | 45.6% | +12000 |
| Stephan Jaeger | $7,300 | 0.5% | 5.8% | 44.5% | +25000 |
| Min Woo Lee | $8,600 | 0.5% | 5.6% | 44.4% | +10000 |
| Greyson Sigg | $7,900 | 0.5% | 6.1% | 46.3% | +21000 |
| Wyndham Clark | $8,000 | 0.5% | 5.2% | 42.6% | +16000 |
| Robert Streb | $7,800 | 0.5% | 6.2% | 45.4% | +21000 |
| Hudson Swafford | $7,400 | 0.5% | 5.9% | 44.7% | +21000 |
| Sam Ryder | $8,000 | 0.5% | 5.7% | 44.2% | +16000 |
| Harry Higgs | $7,500 | 0.5% | 5.9% | 44.7% | +21000 |
| Lee Westwood | $8,600 | 0.4% | 5.7% | 43.6% | +9000 |
Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets
The betting odds are really steep at the top this week, and the model doesn't view that as totally justified. Rory McIlroy (+700) and Jordan Spieth (+1100) are really short. Because I love McIlroy from a process standpoint outright, I'll consider starting the card there and would think his number lengthens a tad by Thursday.
Corey Conners (+1600) and Gary Woodland (+3400) are very much in play this week. They fit the course from a length and irons standpoint and have had good success here overall.
The model feels Maverick McNealy at +3400 is fair. There's a lot to like about Mav this week, though he is riding the hottest putter (relative to expectation) in the field.
Luke List (+5000) is definitely in the conversation, and where I've wound up on my early clicks are List, Mito Pereira (+7500), Kyoung-Hoon Lee (+8000), and Martin Laird (+10000) while waiting for the odds to settle a bit more among the favorites.
Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the Valero Texas Open
All stats cited below originate at FantasyNational. Strokes gained data includes stats from the past calendar year and is adjusted based on my field strength and recency tweaks. Putting surface splits also come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds when possible -- unless noted. All ranks and percentile ranks are among the field. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.
Best of the Best
Rory McIlroy (FanDuel Salary: $12,100 | Golf odds Win Odds: +700) - The course setup this week, which doesn't require nailing fairways, fits well for McIlroy, who ranks in the 99th percentile in driving distance and is -- by far -- the best long-term player in the field in my model. Notably, his short game is really trending up, and he has used spike weeks in putting to cash in on good results. That doesn't mean he's drastically overperforming with the putter. He's really not that far above his baseline in putting, based on my expected putting regression data.
Gary Woodland ($10,800 | +3400) - Gary Woodland might be back. At least back enough for a modest field at TPC San Antonio. Woodland was T6 here last year and enters with three top-25s in four starts. More specifically, he has finished T5, T5, cut (at the highly volatile PLAYERS Championship), and T21. Woodland rates in the 91st percentile in distance gained and in the 14th percentile in fairways gained (meaning he shouldn't have a huge issue at this track with its lenient fairway misses). Woodland's putting also helps separate him when he's on.
Others to Consider:
Corey Conners ($11,600 | +1600) - Great form at TPC San Antonio and great form currently.
Chris Kirk ($10,500 | +3700) - Four career top-15s at TPC San Antonio; 96th-percentile tee-to-green data.
Ryan Palmer ($10,100 | +5000) - Long sprayer off the tee and expected for substantial positive putting regression.
Mid-Range Picks
Mito Pereira ($9,300 | +8000) - Pereira was an automatic click for me as an outright win bet. He is long off the tee relative to this field, and his irons put him in the 95th percentile. Despite that, he isn't getting a ton of love in the betting market or in terms of his FanDuel salary. Pereira is a top-five putting positive regression candidate and ranks in the 95th percentile in putting from within 15 feet over the past 50 rounds on Tour.
Luke List ($9,900 | +5000) - List hasn't had a ton of success at the Valero necessarily but did finish 17th here last year. List's current form and potential is much more important. He has had awful putting weeks bogging him down lately, but when he has been even just okay, he has a win (Farmers), 10th (RSM), and 11th (Houston Open) this season. List fits the course this week from a distance angle.
Others to Consider:
Russell Knox ($9,800 | +5000) - Leader in greens in regulation gained over the past 50 rounds.
Lanto Griffin ($9,200 | +8000) - Two straight missed cuts dropped the salary; before that, he was trending up. Let's not forget it.
Low-Salaried Picks
Kyoung-Hoon Lee ($9,000 | +8000) - Lee's been a model of low-upside consistency lately and has missed just one cut in this PGA Tour season (the first event back at the Sanderson Farms). Since then, he has posted four top-26 results with a high-water mark of T14 (Shriners). Lee is solid across the board statistically relative to this field.
Martin Laird ($8,800 | +10000) - There's always risk with Laird due to the awful putting (8th percentile long-term), but the potential is obvious (92nd-percentile tee-to-green play). While the putting regression data says he should stay bad, he's been able to overcome that at TPC San Antonio where he has won (2013), made the cut in eight of nine starts, and finished top-20 four times.
Others to Consider:
Alex Smalley ($8,700 | +10000) - Sticking with him this week after a runner-up finish at Corales; good ball-striker.
Matthew NeSmith ($8,500 | +12000) - Striping the irons and should have some putting regression soon; T3 at Valspar.
Pat Perez ($8,300 | +12000) - Stagnant salary makes sense due to upside but is making cuts and has good results at TPC San Antonio.
Hank Lebioda ($7,900 | +17000) - Hasn't been able to put it all together lately but has irons and putting to find it this week.