The long, demanding Augusta National is left in the limelight as we head to Harbour Town Golf Links, one of the shortest PGA Tour courses we see consistently, a place where driving accuracy historically has mattered a good deal.
It's a much different setup for this week's event from what we had last week, so what tweaks do we need to make for our setup for the RBC Heritage?
Let's dig into the course, the key stats, the win simulations, and the best bets of the week.
You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.
Poa trivialis overseed
Stimpmeter: 11.5
Past 5 Winning Scores: -19, -22, -12, -12, -13
Past 5 Cut Lines: -2, -4, Even, Even, -1
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Around the Green, Strokes Gained: Putting, Birdie or Better Rate
Wind is pretty much a constant at Harbour Town Golf Links. We historically see winds sitting in the 10-to-15-mile-per-hour range, and with gusts, we see scores stay lower than we have in the past two years.
The tight fairways and hole designs occasionally take driver out of the hands of the longer hitters, so gripping and ripping isn't always the answer. That makes it extremely hard to separate off the tee and gain strokes there (datagolf shows Harbour Town to be the second-hardest course to gain strokes off the tee on Tour and ranks second-lowest in average drive distance behind just Pebble Beach).
Driving accuracy matters in the sense that shorter, more accurate hitters are viable this week. Missing the fairway isn't that penal. Likewise, gaining strokes around the green is pretty easy.
The goal, then, is playing the right shots off the tee and from the fairway. From there, putting does a lot to separate the scoring splits at the top of the leaderboard.
Golfers With Great Course/Event History
The most recent winners in the field are Stewart Cink (200, 2004, 2021), Webb Simpson (2020), Cheng-Tsung Pan (2019), Satoshi Kodaira (2018), Wesley Bryan (2017), Branden Grace (2016), Jim Furyk (2010, 2015), Matt Kuchar (2014), Graeme McDowell (2013), Brandt Snedeker (2011), Brian Gay (2009), and Davis Love (1987, 1991, 1992, 1998, 2003).
The following golfers have at least 8 rounds at Harbour Town Golf Links with an adjusted strokes gained average of at least 1.5, via DataGolf: Patrick Cantlay (+2.11), J.T. Poston (+2.03), Luke Donald (+1.83), Abraham Ancer (+1.79), Jim Furyk (+1.79), Matt Kuchar (+1.72), Webb Simpson (+1.62), Alexander Noren (+1.61), and Maverick McNealy (+1.56).
Win Simulations
Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their Golf odds win odds.
| Golfer | FanDuel Salary | Win% | Top- 10% | Made Cut% | FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Cantlay | $11,500 | 6.6% | 34.6% | 80.8% | +1700 |
| Cameron Smith | $11,900 | 6.4% | 35.1% | 80.6% | +1500 |
| Justin Thomas | $12,000 | 5.4% | 32.4% | 81.0% | +1300 |
| Daniel Berger | $10,900 | 4.4% | 28.9% | 79.5% | +3100 |
| Collin Morikawa | $11,800 | 3.8% | 24.7% | 74.0% | +1300 |
| Sungjae Im | $11,200 | 2.6% | 19.5% | 70.3% | +2000 |
| Shane Lowry | $11,400 | 2.5% | 21.5% | 74.1% | +2000 |
| Russell Henley | $10,500 | 2.4% | 21.4% | 73.7% | +3800 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | $10,800 | 2.4% | 19.9% | 72.9% | +2000 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | $10,100 | 2.3% | 18.4% | 72.0% | +3700 |
| Billy Horschel | $10,400 | 1.9% | 17.4% | 70.0% | +4200 |
| Alex Noren | $9,700 | 1.9% | 16.7% | 69.2% | +5000 |
| Corey Conners | $11,100 | 1.8% | 16.5% | 69.9% | +2600 |
| Webb Simpson | $10,700 | 1.7% | 15.2% | 68.0% | +3100 |
| Harold Varner III | $9,700 | 1.6% | 13.3% | 64.1% | +4500 |
| Dustin Johnson | $11,700 | 1.5% | 15.6% | 69.5% | +1700 |
| Joaquin Niemann | $10,600 | 1.4% | 13.9% | 66.4% | +3200 |
| Maverick McNealy | $9,800 | 1.4% | 13.6% | 67.5% | +5000 |
| Tom Hoge | $9,300 | 1.4% | 12.8% | 64.1% | +8000 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $10,300 | 1.3% | 12.4% | 65.6% | +4200 |
| Ian Poulter | $9,200 | 1.3% | 13.4% | 63.6% | +8500 |
| Kevin Na | $9,900 | 1.3% | 12.7% | 64.0% | +5000 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | $8,400 | 1.2% | 10.6% | 60.8% | +10000 |
| Jordan Spieth | $11,000 | 1.2% | 12.6% | 63.2% | +3700 |
| Matt Kuchar | $9,600 | 1.2% | 11.1% | 63.7% | +5000 |
| Aaron Wise | $8,900 | 1.2% | 12.0% | 62.4% | +10000 |
| Adam Hadwin | $9,500 | 1.1% | 12.3% | 62.7% | +6500 |
| Cameron Tringale | $9,000 | 1.1% | 11.0% | 60.9% | +8000 |
| Troy Merritt | $8,300 | 1.1% | 11.4% | 61.8% | +9500 |
| Mito Pereira | $9,400 | 1.1% | 11.9% | 62.1% | +8500 |
| Brian Harman | $9,600 | 1.1% | 11.2% | 63.5% | +5500 |
| Chris Kirk | $9,500 | 1.1% | 10.8% | 63.2% | +6500 |
| Jason Kokrak | $9,900 | 1.0% | 9.2% | 58.5% | +6500 |
| Erik van Rooyen | $8,700 | 1.0% | 10.2% | 60.4% | +9500 |
| J.J. Spaun | $9,200 | 0.8% | 8.9% | 57.4% | +10000 |
| Pat Perez | $7,800 | 0.8% | 11.0% | 62.5% | +14000 |
| Sebastian Munoz | $8,900 | 0.8% | 8.4% | 57.1% | +10000 |
| Siwoo Kim | $10,000 | 0.8% | 9.2% | 57.4% | +5500 |
| Kevin Streelman | $9,400 | 0.8% | 10.2% | 61.5% | +8000 |
| Denny McCarthy | $8,600 | 0.8% | 9.4% | 59.4% | +9500 |
| Brendon Todd | $8,400 | 0.8% | 10.1% | 61.8% | +10000 |
| Russell Knox | $9,000 | 0.7% | 8.2% | 58.5% | +9500 |
| Adam Long | $7,800 | 0.7% | 7.4% | 54.2% | +28000 |
| Charles Howell III | $9,100 | 0.7% | 8.7% | 59.8% | +9500 |
| Lanto Griffin | $8,100 | 0.7% | 7.5% | 55.6% | +11000 |
| Brian Stuard | $8,000 | 0.6% | 9.4% | 60.7% | +13000 |
| Kyoung-hoon Lee | $8,000 | 0.6% | 7.7% | 54.6% | +13000 |
| Kevin Kisner | $9,800 | 0.6% | 7.5% | 55.2% | +4500 |
| Joel Dahmen | $8,300 | 0.6% | 8.3% | 59.0% | +13000 |
| Cameron Young | $9,300 | 0.6% | 7.1% | 54.7% | +10000 |
| Luke List | $9,000 | 0.6% | 7.3% | 57.6% | +9500 |
| Andrew Putnam | $7,400 | 0.6% | 6.9% | 53.4% | +19000 |
| Alex Smalley | $8,000 | 0.5% | 6.7% | 54.9% | +16000 |
| Patton Kizzire | $8,800 | 0.5% | 6.8% | 56.1% | +9500 |
Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets
I'm keying on Collin Morikawa (+1300), Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2000), and Daniel Berger (+3100) in the betting market this week at the top, but this week is volatile, historically, and so it's a week to take shots on longer odds, too.
Russell Henley (+3800), Kevin Na (+5000), and Adam Hadwin (+6500) are targets for me in the longer range.
Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the RBC Heritage
All stats cited below originate at FantasyNational. Strokes gained data includes stats from the past calendar year and is adjusted based on my field strength and recency tweaks. Putting surface splits also come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds when possible -- unless noted. All ranks and percentile ranks are among the field. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.
Best of the Best
Collin Morikawa (FanDuel Salary: $11,800 | Golf odds Win Odds: +1300) - Collin Morikawa's game is built on precision, and that's the test at Harbour Town. Morikawa ranks in the 94th percentile or better in fairways gained and adjusted strokes from approach. He was seventh here last year while ranking second in strokes gained: tee to green.
Daniel Berger ($10,900 | +3100) - Berger's game is right for Harbour Town. He ranks last on Tour in driver apex height, and he is accurate off the tee while also offering 99th-percentile adjusted iron play in the field. Berger has finished 33rd, 3rd, and 13th the past three years here.
Others to Consider:
Patrick Cantlay ($11,500 | +1700) - Easiest stud to forget about this week.
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($10,800 | +2000) - Great at Carolina courses and in the wind.
Russell Henley ($10,500 | +3800) - Accurate off the tee with the best irons in the field. Great setup for Henley.
Mid-Range Picks
Kevin Na ($9,900 | +5000) - If we can downplay off-the-tee numbers, then Kevin Na gets in the mix. Na ranks in the 9th percentile there but is 70th percentile in irons and at least 80th percentile in both short game stats. In total, his fairway-through-green numbers are 94th percentile while rating out as an accurate option.
Adam Hadwin ($9,500 | +6500) - Hadwin gets the accuracy-and-irons bump this week. He's a strong poa putter who ranks in the 87th percentile in strokes gained: fairway through green among this field. He has finished top-10 in three straight starts, highlighted by a T9 at THE PLAYERS.
Others to Consider:
Alexander Noren ($9,700 | +5000) - Top-notch short game and putting; three-straight top-30s here.
Tom Hoge ($9,300 | +8000) - Was super hot until a minute ago; accurate off the tee with 91st-percentile irons.
Ian Poulter ($9,200 | +8500) - Will always get bumped up at a course like this; four top-15s in past four years here.
Low-Salaried Picks
Russell Knox ($9,000 | +9500) - Knox is one of the best ball-strikers in the field (90th percentile) and the field leader in greens in regulation gained. The short game lags, but he's a really accurate driver (96th percentile in fairways gained). He's due for putting regression (while still being a bad putter, to be clear). Knox lost his form at Harbour Town (three straight missed cuts) after four top-20s in five before that.
Erik Van Rooyen ($8,700 | +9500) - One of the most balanced drivers in the field (72nd percentile in distance gained and 73rd percentile in fairways gained), Van Rooyen is also 92nd percentile in adjusted strokes gained: approach. Van Rooyen finished 21st here in 2020 in his lone start.
Others to Consider:
Aaron Wise ($9,000 | +10000) - Has 92nd-percentile ball-striking to get himself in good positions here.
Brian Stuard ($8,000 | +13000) - Dead last in distance, first in fairways gained; putting regression candidate; top-20 in two of past three years.
Adam Long ($7,800 | +28000) - Good long-term golfer who is accurate off the tee and a great putter.