Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for The 150th Open Championship based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their golf betting odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook.
The year's final major returns to one of the most iconic golf courses in the world. Conditions look calm, which favors the bombers who can chase it up these wide-open setups, though St. Andrews is not limited to just big hitters. You'll still need to drive it well, and fast and firm conditions should accentuate any wayward hits.
We like one value among the favorites who's priced simply too low for his talent despite some inconsistencies off the tee, and we otherwise fill our card with golfers who excel with both driver and irons.
For more info on St. Andrew's along with this week's key stats and Brandon Gdula's win simulations, check out his article.
At The Top
Justin Thomas (+2100) - JT's Open Championship record leaves much to be desired, with finishes of T40, T11, MC, MC, and T53. That last effort was his debut in 2016, which means for as long and successful as his career has been thus far, Thomas has never played an Open at St. Andrews. An elite tee-to-green game and plenty of practice with Tiger this week give Thomas a leg up this week. He is one of the elite ball-strikers in the world, and he has a crafty, underrated around the green game. With a diverse enough game to compete in both friendly and difficult conditions, Thomas is a great match for St. Andrews no matter how the weather plays out.
Value Spots
Collin Morikawa (+2800) - Morikawa at 28/1 is a slam dunk auto bet at a major. The recent form may not be up to snuff, but the price here is just too good to pass up on the defending champion. He's yet to notch a win in 2022, but he's been right there with twin fifth-place finishes in both The Masters and the U.S. Open. He's still a top-10 player in the world and strikes it well enough week in and week out that he's bound for at least some regression with a putter that's been bad even for him. He's lost strokes putting in each of his last six measured events, which do not include the two majors or the Scottish Open last week.
Max Homa (+4500) - Competing at a major is just about the only thing we really haven't seen Homa do in his career. He's finished 17th or better in 8 of his last 11 events, with the lone exceptions being a 47th at the U.S. Open and a 48th at The Masters. But a T13 at the PGA Championship and a solid 16th at last week's Genesis Scottish Open are good indicators against top competition. That latter finish pushed him into the top 20 in the Official World Golf Ranking for the first time in his career, a steady climb up the sport's ladder that needs only an exclamation point to declare Homa a truly elite player. Last year was his first Open Championship. This year may be his first Claret Jug.
Long Shot
Sungjae Im (+6500) - Sungjae skidded over the past month with missed cuts at the Genesis Scottish Open and the U.S. Open his last two times out. Before that, he managed T10 at the Memorial, T25 at the Charles Schwab, T21 at the RBC Heritage, and T8 at The Masters. We've seen Sungjae master difficult tests in windy conditions in Florida, and while his Open Championship experience is lacking, this unflappable 24-year-old is surely one who can handle the frustrating test posed by any conditions.
Billy Horschel (+10000) - Horschel earned one of the biggest victories of his career this season at the Memorial, and some other top finishes earlier this year place him squarely in our sites as a long shot at St. Andrews. He's never been one for links golf, but his best Open Championship finish was a T30 at the Old Course back in 2015. It was his only made cut from 2013 through 2019, and a T53 last year is certainly no signal that he's well suited to a typical Open. But St. Andrews brings in more potential contenders given how drastically the conditions can change, and if he gets the right wave, Horschel can ride his wave of good form and good vibes to a major championship.