Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the 3M Open based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their golf betting odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Following a major championship is never easy. This week's field features a specific lack of star power at the top of the market that makes the favorites rather uncomfortable to back, and the long shots are not quite the values we want. With Matthew Wolff, Michael Thompson, and Cameron Champ winning the first three installments, we have no good trend to follow except that we can stack our card in the +5000 to +10000 range and pick up some decent win equity compared to an average PGA Tour event.
We are looking for low scores here and recent form of scoring average, or birdie rate, should inform many of our decisions.
For more info on TPC Twin Cities along with this week's key stats and Brandon Gdula's win simulations, check out his article.
At The Top
Hideki Matsuyama (+1400) - Strictly a pedigree play here, at an event featuring just six golfers in the top 50 of the Official World Golf Ranking. Hideki is the highest at 14th and certainly the most accomplished player in the field. He's a value by default of not being the shortest name on the board, that honor going to Tony Finau (+1300). Matsuyama also leads the field in birdie or better percentage and scoring average this season, ranking 10th and 21st on Tour, respectively.
Maverick McNealy (+2000) - McNealy is 12th in birdie or better percentage this season and has been on a roll of late, finishing T9 at the Barracuda Championship, T16 at the Genesis Scottish Open, and T8 at the John Deere Classic. He was in the mix here last year before shooting over par on Sunday and tumbling to T16. We're not used to seeing such a short number next to McNealy's name, but given the recent form and pedigree of a former World No. 1 Amateur, we are willing to ride Mav this week at a course where birdies are there for the taking.
Value Spots
NONE
Long Shots
Tom Hoge (+7000) - A string of six straight missed cuts hardly seems like good form, but Hoge has mostly played the top-tier events only since his AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am win in January. He'll take on the softest field since finishing T17 at the Byron Nelson in May. The iron play has been solid all year, and despite the slew of missed cuts, he's still 56th in scoring average on the season. He's played TPC Twin Cities each year it's been on the schedule, topping out at a T23 in the first edition, but experience and some confidence in a weaker field make Hoge a solid play that's available at a nice price thanks to the recent duds.
Michael Gligic (+8000) - Gligic has played well of late, with 10 of his last 12 stroke play rounds in the 60s including an opening 64 at the John Deere Classic and a second round 63 at the Barbasol Championship. He finished T10 and T21 in those events, the former his best finish of the season. Not coincidentally, those two events were among the weakest of the season and in line with this week's field. He was also T24 at the Mexico Open at Vidanta in May against mostly below-average PGA competition.
Nate Lashley (+10000) - Lashley has had an interesting season, with either top 30s or missed cuts in all but three events on the season. He's done his best work in the weakest fields, finishing T7 in Puerto Rico, T11 in Mexico, and T15 in Puntacana. Minnesota is a far cry, but Lashley loves himself a weak field and we are fine with inconsistency down here if it comes with upside. Lashley's eight top 25s on the season are about as good as we are going to get as we delve into the triple digits.