It's the final week of the PGA Tour's regular season before we enter a three-week playoff.
This week, the Tour is heading to Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina for the final tuneup -- or the final chance to qualify for the FedEx Cup Playoffs for those near the cusp.
Let's dig into the course, the key stats, the win simulations, and the best bets of the week.
You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.
Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (emphasis on Driving Accuracy), Strokes Gained: Putting on Bermuda, Birdie or Better Rate
Last year, we saw a six-man playoff that led to a win from Kevin Kisner, but other than that, we've recently seen winners go at least 21 under.
Speaking of Kisner, this is one of the shortest and most accuracy-friendly courses on the PGA Tour, given the tight fairways. You also can't afford to miss the fairways too often.
So, we'll want golfers who can gain strokes off the tee but also not rule out golfers who are merely hyper-accurate. What I mean by that is that accurate drivers don't gain a ton of strokes off the tee most weeks, but they should be able to this week.
From there, we'll need irons (it's pretty simple to gain strokes from the fairways, via datagolf) and putting to convert birdie chances. I have a heavy emphasis on strokes gained: approach here based on historical data, and as usual for birdie-friendly setups, it's strokes gained: around the green that we can ignore.
Other than that, we don't need to complicate it.
Golfers With Great Course/Event History
The best strokes gained averages for golfers at Sedgefield Country Club with at least two starts:
- Webb Simpson (+3.02)
- Jim Herman (+2.27)
- Sungjae Im (+2.12)
- Kevin Kisner (+2.10)
- Billy Horschel (+1.95)
- Russell Henley (+1.77)
- Shane Lowry (+1.74)
- Denny McCarthy (+1.69)
- Ryan Armour (+1.56)
- Si Woo Kim (+1.56)
Talk about some fairway finders.
Past winners (at this course) in the field:
- Kevin Kisner (2021)
- Jim Herman (2020)
- J.T. Poston (2019)
- Si Woo Kim (2016)
- Davis Love (2015)
- Camilo Villegas (2014)
- Webb Simpson (2011)
- Ryan Moore (2009)
Again, a lot of fairways hit among that group.
Win Simulations for the Wyndham Championship
Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds this week at FanDuel Sportsbook.
| Golfer | FanDuel Salary | Win% | Top- 10% | Made Cut% | FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Lowry | $11,800 | 6.2% | 35.0% | 79.8% | +1600 |
| Sungjae Im | $11,300 | 6.0% | 34.7% | 79.6% | +1500 |
| Will Zalatoris | $11,900 | 4.9% | 28.7% | 75.1% | +1600 |
| Billy Horschel | $11,200 | 3.5% | 25.2% | 73.5% | +1900 |
| Aaron Wise | $10,000 | 3.2% | 22.6% | 71.8% | +3700 |
| Adam Scott | $10,800 | 2.9% | 19.7% | 66.0% | +3300 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | $10,800 | 2.9% | 19.4% | 65.5% | +2900 |
| Corey Conners | $11,000 | 2.8% | 23.4% | 72.3% | +2400 |
| Harold Varner III | $10,500 | 2.7% | 21.5% | 71.2% | +3400 |
| Keith Mitchell | $9,700 | 2.4% | 20.6% | 70.4% | +4800 |
| Russell Henley | $10,900 | 2.4% | 21.2% | 71.1% | +2400 |
| Joohyung Kim | $9,800 | 2.3% | 17.0% | 63.4% | +3400 |
| Brian Harman | $10,200 | 2.2% | 15.8% | 63.1% | +3100 |
| Webb Simpson | $11,600 | 2.2% | 16.9% | 63.1% | +1500 |
| Denny McCarthy | $9,800 | 1.9% | 18.3% | 68.5% | +3200 |
| Scott Stallings | $10,100 | 1.9% | 14.8% | 61.3% | +4500 |
| Sebastian Munoz | $9,500 | 1.7% | 15.8% | 64.9% | +5000 |
| Justin Rose | $9,900 | 1.7% | 16.6% | 66.0% | +4200 |
| Davis Riley | $9,900 | 1.6% | 15.0% | 61.7% | +4000 |
| Taylor Pendrith | $10,400 | 1.4% | 13.9% | 63.0% | +4500 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | $9,600 | 1.3% | 14.1% | 64.4% | +4500 |
| Kevin Kisner | $10,700 | 1.3% | 11.1% | 54.9% | +2900 |
| Adam Long | $9,600 | 1.2% | 13.2% | 62.4% | +5500 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $9,200 | 1.2% | 11.4% | 59.0% | +7000 |
| Kyoung-hoon Lee | $8,900 | 1.1% | 11.8% | 59.6% | +6500 |
| Jason Day | $9,500 | 1.1% | 11.2% | 55.6% | +6000 |
| Siwoo Kim | $10,300 | 1.0% | 12.7% | 62.1% | +2200 |
| J.J. Spaun | $8,500 | 1.0% | 11.3% | 57.9% | +10000 |
| J.T. Poston | $10,600 | 1.0% | 11.3% | 60.3% | +3400 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | $8,300 | 0.9% | 9.3% | 53.2% | +11000 |
| Callum Tarren | $8,800 | 0.9% | 8.1% | 50.2% | +8000 |
| Chris Gotterup | $9,300 | 0.8% | 8.7% | 55.6% | +8000 |
| Stephan Jaeger | $8,700 | 0.8% | 7.6% | 49.5% | +11000 |
| Adam Svensson | $9,400 | 0.8% | 9.3% | 52.2% | +5000 |
| Russell Knox | $9,100 | 0.8% | 8.8% | 54.4% | +12000 |
| Mark Hubbard | $9,200 | 0.7% | 9.8% | 56.9% | +6500 |
| Martin Laird | $9,400 | 0.7% | 9.2% | 56.7% | +7000 |
| Aaron Rai | $8,500 | 0.7% | 9.5% | 56.7% | +8000 |
| Chez Reavie | $9,000 | 0.7% | 6.4% | 47.4% | +6500 |
| Matthew NeSmith | $8,600 | 0.7% | 7.7% | 53.4% | +9000 |
| Alex Smalley | $9,100 | 0.7% | 9.5% | 57.3% | +7000 |
| Doug Ghim | $8,600 | 0.6% | 7.0% | 48.4% | +8000 |
| C.T. Pan | $8,900 | 0.6% | 7.7% | 53.1% | +7500 |
| David Lipsky | $8,800 | 0.6% | 7.5% | 52.1% | +13000 |
| Joel Dahmen | $8,600 | 0.6% | 7.8% | 53.4% | +8500 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $8,700 | 0.6% | 8.2% | 55.3% | +9500 |
| Stewart Cink | $8,800 | 0.6% | 7.2% | 49.2% | +12000 |
| Sepp Straka | $7,800 | 0.6% | 6.2% | 46.3% | +20000 |
| Sam Ryder | $7,300 | 0.6% | 6.6% | 47.5% | +27000 |
| Kevin Streelman | $9,300 | 0.6% | 8.5% | 55.8% | +5500 |
| Michael Thompson | $8,400 | 0.5% | 5.8% | 45.6% | +13000 |
| Tyler Duncan | $8,500 | 0.5% | 7.3% | 49.6% | +14000 |
| Nick Hardy | $8,700 | 0.5% | 6.7% | 47.9% | +10000 |
| Taylor Moore | $8,900 | 0.5% | 6.0% | 48.2% | +12000 |
| Danny Lee | $8,100 | 0.5% | 5.8% | 45.9% | +16000 |
| Brendon Todd | $9,400 | 0.5% | 8.9% | 56.4% | +5500 |
| Chad Ramey | $7,500 | 0.5% | 5.7% | 46.4% | +25000 |
| Harris English | $9,300 | 0.5% | 6.2% | 46.9% | +7500 |
| Vincent Whaley | $8,600 | 0.5% | 6.8% | 52.3% | +17000 |
| James Hahn | $8,000 | 0.5% | 5.0% | 43.7% | +14000 |
Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets for the Wyndham Championship
The early returns this week are putting me on Shane Lowry, Sungjae Im, Russell Henley, Scott Stallings, Keith Mitchell, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout.
All but Mitchell have plenty of accuracy, and in Mitchell's case, he's great off the tee despite average-ish accuracy.
I think Lowry is quite undervalued because of some weak recent putting. Im has three straight top-25 results here. Henley's three career wins all came on bermuda greens.
Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the Wyndham Championship
All stats cited below originate at FantasyNational. Strokes gained data includes stats from the past calendar year and is adjusted based on my field strength and recency tweaks. Putting surface splits also come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds when possible -- unless noted. All ranks and percentile ranks are among the field. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.
Best of the Best
Shane Lowry (FanDuel Salary: $11,800 | Golf odds Win Odds: +1600 | FedEx Cup Rank: 28th) - Lowry holds a pretty substantial edge over a huge portion of this field over the past six months and the past year with how good he's been lately. He checks all the boxes we're looking for in terms of accuracy, iron play, and putting. Lowry's inside the top 30 in FedEx Cup points, so he doesn't need this week, but every point helps, and it doesn't hurt that the playoff angle is just an added bonus onto the great case for Lowry already.
Webb Simpson ($11,600 | +1500 | 126th) - Webb is dominant at Sedgefield. He won here in 2011 and has 10 total top-11 finishes in 13 starts since 2009. It's a home game for Simpson, who is from Raleigh. And it's not like he is out of form. Simpson is someone I've been monitoring for a while now, and he seems clear of the injuries that held him back earlier in 2022. Simpson had missed two cuts and three of four before getting through last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Simpson's accuracy, iron play, and putting (especially on bermuda greens) make him lethal this week. Simpson also finds himself close to the cutoff in terms of FedEx Cup points, so he'll be looking to make a climb at a spot he knows better than anyone.
Sungjae Im ($11,300 | +1500 | 15th) - I do like Sungjae Im more than Webb Simpsons outright, but Webb's case is just so interesting that it's hard not to talk about him as a sort of centerpiece this week. As for Im, he has finished 6th, 9th, and 24th at Sedgefield in three starts. He's accurate off the tee, and only he and Lowry rank in the 80th percentile or better in all four strokes gained stats over the past year with my field and recency adjustments baked in.
Others to Consider:
Russell Henley ($10,900 | +2400 | 42nd) - Benefits from an accuracy setup; all three career wins on bermuda greens.
Scott Stallings ($10,100 | +4500 | 44th) - Strong irons and putter (especially on bentgrass).
Mid-Range Picks
Denny McCarthy ($9,800 | +3200 | 40th) - In a week ripe for someone like McCarthy (accurate and one of the best putters on the planet), we have to take a look. McCarthy has finished 36th, 22nd, 9th, and 15th here the past four years for dominant course form, and he qualifies as a bermuda specialist with the flat stick. He really benefits when distance isn't a prerequisite.
Mark Hubbard ($9,200 | +6500 | 86th) - One of the most accurate players with driver and irons, Hubbard is quite the fit for Sedgefield. He has finished 24th, 15th, and 51st at this event over the past five years for some of the best form at the setup. Hubbard also is a great putter with supported underlying data. He's in the 9th percentile in this field in distance but in the 64th percentile in fairways gained, so he gets a big boost.
Others to Consider:
Keith Mitchell ($9,700 | +4800 | 38th) - Putter has improved long-term now, and he makes birdies.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($9,600 | +4500 | 56th) - 78th-percentile accuracy and irons; due for putting regression (98th-percentile expected putting).
Christopher Gotterup ($9,300 | +8000 | N/A) - Not a course fit with his length but a great ball-striker nonetheless.
Low-Salaried Picks
J.J. Spaun ($8,500 | +10000 | 26th) - Spaun finds himself -- after a win and some solid finishes -- 26th in the FedEx Cup standings and could really stay relevant down the stretch with more good results. Spaun holds 82nd-percentile iron play and 85th-percentile accuracy and birdie numbers. He's a strong value at this number.
Cheng-Tsung Pan ($8,900 | +7500 | 94th) - Pan finds himself in the tier of saftey with FedEx Cup points while also having room to grow with a good finish this week. He has no holes in his game statistically except for bermuda putting. That said, he is four-for-four with made cuts at Sedgefield and was runner-up in 2018.
Others to Consider:
Chez Reavie ($9,000 | +6500 | 51st) - The most accurate driver in the field has 83rd-percentile irons; putter is a concern, though.
Aaron Rai ($8,500 | +8000 | 89th) - Can use some FedEx points; great recent form with an all-around game.
Ryan Armour ($7,800 | +16000 | 164th) - Hyper accurate; four top-25s here the past five years. A specialist now at 46 years old.