Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the TOUR Championship based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their golf betting odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Arguably the most intriguing and controversial season in the history of the PGA Tour comes to a close this week in Atlanta. East Lake Golf Club is the annual site of the FedEx Cup Playoffs finale, and as has been the case since 2019, the field will include starting strokes for the players at the top of the FedEx Cup Standings.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+200) starts with a score of 10-under par, and as he showed at The Masters this year, he's more than capable of front-running. But at that +200 number, we'd have to stake most of our weekly bankroll on Scheffler, and while that may be fine for some bettors, we prefer to diversify. A couple of poor holes could set him back and level the playing field, at which point he'd become an attractive live bet at longer odds than the ones he's starting with.
For more info on East Lake Golf Club along with this week's key stats and Brandon Gdula's win simulations, check out Brandon's article.
At The Top
Rory McIlroy (+900, starting at -4) - McIlroy will start six strokes behind Scheffler with five golfers between them. Rory been chasing all season to come back from poor starts, most notably when finishing runner up to Scottie at Augusta in what was maybe the least dramatic second-place finish ever. He has had a solid year, winning THE CJ CUP in the fall and the RBC Canadian Open in the summer, and finishing inside the top 10 in all four majors. But a top-tier championship has eluded him thus far, and of all the places to make a charge, East Lake is a great fit. Rory has made charges here before, winning in 2019 despite starting five strokes off the lead. With Rory serving as one of the Tour's most vocal advocates and opponents of the rival LIV Tour, capturing the top prize would be a fitting finish for McIlroy to close out this unusual year.
Value Spot
Justin Thomas (+2000, starting at -3) - Thomas was the man who faded despite the head start in 2019, but he's played better each of the last two years. He'll need some help from the folks in front of him to climb out of the hole, but he's managed finishes of 3rd, 2nd, and 4th in the three years since the starting strokes were introduced. He knows how to compete at this course and in this format, and while some late-season struggles have contributed to his deficit, he's a streaky golfer who is not that far off from a huge comeback win at the PGA Championship. Thomas needed just one round to overtake a seven-stroke lead in May. He'll have four rounds to repeat that feat this week.
Long Shot
Collin Morikawa (+6500, starting at -1) - We'll round out our card with what would certainly be a surprising close to a somewhat off season from Morikawa. But at 65/1, we'll take one last flyer on one of the best ball-strikers in the field. His approach play was once again exceptional this season, and while he won't win many driving distance contests, he does keep it in the fairway and still consistently gains off the tee. Last weekend, he lost plenty of points on the FedEx Cup Leaderboard due to a disastrous final round that included a 10 on the par 5 12th. That's not what we expect from Morikawa any week, and he can play relaxed and aggressive starting in such a big hole. If he strings a few confident putting strokes together, he is certainly capable of overcoming this deficit and paying off at a huge number.