The PGA Tour season is back in action already for one week before the Presidents Cup arrives, but that's one week of PGA DFS action to break down and examine.
This week, the Tour starts its new season at Silverado Resort and Spa (North) with the Fortinet Championship (formerly the Safeway Open and the Frys.com Open).
Let's dig into the course, the key stats, the win simulations, and the best bets of the week.
You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.
6th-narrowest of 80 courses)
Average Green Size: N/A
Green Type: Poa/bentgrass
Stimpmeter: N/A
Past 5 Winning Scores: -19, -21, -17, -14, -15
Past 5 Cut Lines: -3, -5, -2, -3, -1
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained: Around the Green, Proximity from 50-125 Yards, Birdie or Better, Adjusted Strokes Gained (to account for Korn Ferry Tour graduates)
Despite the narrow fairways, we haven't seen an over-emphasis on driving accuracy at Silverado in the past, and distance and accuracy are both a bit important. Still, gaining strokes off the tee is never a bad thing.
What'll matter more is precision with wedges, as the short distance is going to correlate well with shorter approach shots. Datagolf shows a heavy emphasis on dispersion from within 150 yards, specifically.
A good short game will help here. It's typically a difficult place to gain strokes around the green, and if we just put an emphasis on wedge play, then we're probably off to a good start.
Golfers With Great Course/Event History
The best strokes gained averages for golfers at Silverado with at least two starts over the past five years:
- Harry Higgs (+1.55)
- Chez Reavie (+1.49)
- Zac Blair (+1.47)
- Kevin Streelman (+1.38)
- Doc Redman (+1.38)
- Mark Hubbard (+1.29)
- Webb Simpson (+1.27)
- Ryan Moore (+1.27)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+1.26)
- Brandt Snedeker (+1.26)
Yeah, this is overall a good list of wedge players who aren't super long.
Past winners (at this course) in the field:
- Max Homa (2021)
- Stewart Cink (2020)
- Cameron Champ (2019)
- Kevin Tway (2018)
- Brendan Steele (2016 and 2017)
- Emiliano Grillo (2015)
- Jimmy Walker (2013)
Win Simulations for the Fortinet Championship
Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds this week at FanDuel Sportsbook.
| Golfer | FanDuel Salary | Win% | Top- 10% | Made Cut% | FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Homa | $11,900 | 5.5% | 26.8% | 77.7% | +1500 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $12,000 | 4.4% | 27.6% | 76.4% | +1500 |
| Corey Conners | $11,800 | 4.2% | 27.3% | 78.2% | +1800 |
| Taylor Pendrith | $11,000 | 3.0% | 19.0% | 69.6% | +2600 |
| Taylor Montgomery | $9,600 | 2.6% | 19.5% | 70.5% | +5000 |
| Denny McCarthy | $10,600 | 2.1% | 20.1% | 73.3% | +4000 |
| Maverick McNealy | $11,400 | 2.0% | 15.3% | 68.0% | +2200 |
| Davis Riley | $11,300 | 2.0% | 15.7% | 67.7% | +2900 |
| Cameron Davis | $11,000 | 2.0% | 15.3% | 67.7% | +2900 |
| Tom Hoge | $10,500 | 1.9% | 17.0% | 69.5% | +4000 |
| Brendan Steele | $10,700 | 1.7% | 12.7% | 63.9% | +3700 |
| Gary Woodland | $10,800 | 1.6% | 13.4% | 66.1% | +4000 |
| Sahith Theegala | $11,500 | 1.6% | 13.1% | 61.7% | +2400 |
| Jason Day | $10,100 | 1.5% | 12.0% | 61.9% | +5000 |
| Chris Kirk | $9,900 | 1.5% | 14.4% | 67.4% | +5000 |
| Matt Kuchar | $9,300 | 1.5% | 17.8% | 69.8% | +6500 |
| Emiliano Grillo | $10,400 | 1.5% | 10.6% | 59.9% | +4000 |
| Alex Noren | $9,800 | 1.4% | 14.8% | 67.9% | +5000 |
| J.J. Spaun | $9,500 | 1.4% | 13.1% | 62.3% | +6500 |
| Wyndham Clark | $10,300 | 1.3% | 10.4% | 61.6% | +4200 |
| Troy Merritt | $9,500 | 1.3% | 13.5% | 65.9% | +6000 |
| Andrew Putnam | $9,700 | 1.2% | 12.7% | 65.0% | +5000 |
| Justin Suh | $9,800 | 1.1% | 10.6% | 62.2% | +5000 |
| Nick Hardy | $9,000 | 1.1% | 9.3% | 55.6% | +6500 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $8,400 | 1.1% | 9.8% | 60.7% | +7000 |
| Yechun Carl Yuan | $9,000 | 1.1% | 10.5% | 59.0% | +10000 |
| Adam Long | $9,000 | 1.0% | 11.5% | 63.3% | +6500 |
| Luke List | $8,200 | 1.0% | 8.9% | 60.8% | +8500 |
| Martin Laird | $9,200 | 1.0% | 10.6% | 62.2% | +6500 |
| Alex Smalley | $8,600 | 1.0% | 10.6% | 61.7% | +10000 |
| Mark Hubbard | $8,900 | 0.9% | 9.5% | 60.6% | +9500 |
| Beau Hossler | $8,100 | 0.9% | 7.7% | 54.6% | +12000 |
| Taylor Moore | $9,600 | 0.9% | 8.8% | 57.4% | +5000 |
| Tyler Duncan | $8,600 | 0.9% | 8.6% | 54.8% | +10000 |
| Trey Mullinax | $10,200 | 0.9% | 8.3% | 56.7% | +4200 |
| Adam Svensson | $8,700 | 0.8% | 8.5% | 55.2% | +9500 |
| Stephan Jaeger | $8,800 | 0.8% | 7.8% | 54.2% | +9500 |
| David Lipsky | $8,800 | 0.8% | 9.3% | 59.4% | +9500 |
| Matthew NeSmith | $8,500 | 0.8% | 9.1% | 58.9% | +11000 |
| MJ Daffue | $7,300 | 0.8% | 8.9% | 54.5% | +17000 |
| Kevin Streelman | $10,000 | 0.8% | 8.4% | 57.7% | +5000 |
| Chez Reavie | $9,900 | 0.7% | 7.3% | 53.3% | +5000 |
| Callum Tarren | $8,900 | 0.7% | 7.7% | 54.1% | +8000 |
| Webb Simpson | $10,900 | 0.7% | 8.4% | 58.4% | +4200 |
| John Huh | $8,700 | 0.7% | 7.4% | 52.9% | +9500 |
| C.T. Pan | $8,500 | 0.7% | 7.9% | 53.6% | +11000 |
| Lee Hodges | $8,200 | 0.7% | 8.4% | 54.0% | +11000 |
| Russell Knox | $8,400 | 0.7% | 9.4% | 59.5% | +11000 |
| Brendon Todd | $9,400 | 0.7% | 10.5% | 61.2% | +6500 |
| Sam Ryder | $7,300 | 0.7% | 6.8% | 52.7% | +17000 |
| Stewart Cink | $9,400 | 0.7% | 6.3% | 51.0% | +6500 |
| Chris Gotterup | $9,200 | 0.6% | 6.7% | 53.9% | +8000 |
| Thomas Detry | $9,700 | 0.6% | 7.6% | 57.0% | +5000 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | $9,100 | 0.6% | 7.3% | 55.1% | +8000 |
| Brandon Wu | $8,200 | 0.6% | 7.3% | 51.6% | +11000 |
| Michael Gligic | $8,800 | 0.6% | 5.4% | 51.7% | +9500 |
| Hayden Buckley | $7,700 | 0.6% | 6.4% | 50.1% | +14000 |
| Cameron Champ | $9,300 | 0.6% | 5.7% | 51.5% | +5000 |
| Dylan Frittelli | $8,600 | 0.6% | 7.1% | 55.7% | +10000 |
| Michael Thompson | $7,700 | 0.6% | 6.5% | 51.1% | +14000 |
| James Hahn | $8,000 | 0.6% | 6.3% | 50.2% | +12000 |
| Michael Kim | $8,000 | 0.6% | 6.5% | 54.5% | +12000 |
| Adam Schenk | $7,800 | 0.5% | 6.1% | 50.3% | +14000 |
| Zecheng Dou | $8,100 | 0.5% | 6.3% | 49.6% | +12000 |
| Lucas Glover | $8,400 | 0.5% | 6.1% | 52.9% | +11000 |
| Scott Piercy | $7,600 | 0.5% | 6.4% | 50.9% | +16000 |
| Doug Ghim | $8,500 | 0.5% | 6.0% | 51.6% | +11000 |
| Robert Streb | $7,000 | 0.5% | 6.3% | 50.4% | +25000 |
| Danny Lee | $7,200 | 0.5% | 5.9% | 50.0% | +21000 |
| Greyson Sigg | $7,900 | 0.5% | 5.6% | 52.3% | +12000 |
| Vincent Whaley | $7,800 | 0.5% | 6.0% | 53.6% | +19000 |
| Ryan Armour | $7,900 | 0.5% | 6.7% | 51.6% | +12000 |
| Robby Shelton IV | $8,000 | 0.5% | 5.6% | 50.3% | +12000 |
Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets for the Fortinet Championship
The model does view Max Homa, Hideki Matsuyama, and Corey Conners as the three favorites -- same as the betting odds -- but doesn't show quite enough value to suggest them. Of course, that's not to say that I'm not tempted at Homa at +1500 anyway.
The primary value of the week is Taylor Montgomery at +5000. The model has him pegged at +3700. Montgomery has good long-term data that the model leverages, so that checks out. Fellow Taylor Taylor Pendrith (+2600) is on the radar as well.
If Luke List (+8500) can putt at all, he has a path to win here with his elite tee-to-green ability and is someone I'd eye as a long-shot.
It's honestly tight from there in terms of value, but the model points to Carl Yuan and Alex Smalley at +10000 as potential long-shot plays. I don't mind that but would want to consider top-10 or top-20s there in a large, volatile field.
My card will start with Homa, Montgomery, and List as far as outrights go.
Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the Fortinet Championship
All stats cited below originate at FantasyNational. Strokes gained data includes stats from the past calendar year and is adjusted based on my field strength and recency tweaks. Putting surface splits also come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds when possible -- unless noted. All ranks and percentile ranks are among the field. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.
Best of the Best
Max Homa (FanDuel Salary: $11,900 | Golf betting odds: +1500) - Last year's winner, Max Homa also enters this week with the best adjusted strokes average in my database while also holding 90th-percentile adjusted irons and 99th-percentile adjusted putting. There's really no way around it that he's the best play in the field this week and is worth the elevated salary as the field itself drops off fairly quickly.
Hideki Matsuyama ($12,000 | +1500) - Hideki Matsuyama is still on the PGA Tour to start the 2022 season, and that's definitely got him in a position to win this week. He's got 98th-percentile wedge play and ranked inside the top 45 in proximity from within 125 yards last season. It's a promising setup for Matsuyama, who finished sixth here last year. With value from the up-and-coming Korn Ferry guys, we can go top-heavy this week.
Others to Consider:
Corey Conners ($11,800 | +1800) - Has a case to be in the tier with Homa and Hideki; everything drops off from here.
Taylor Pendrith ($11,000 | +3000) - Is a 98th-percentile ball-striker in the field based on PGA Tour data.
Tom Hoge ($10,500 | +4000) - 93rd-percentile tee-to-green numbers with good spike weeks T2G.
Mid-Range Picks
Taylor Montgomery ($9,600 | +5000) - By a solid margin, Montgomery is the best long-term golfer in the $9,000 to $10,000 range. My database, weighted for recency and field strength, has Montgomery at +0.84 strokes gained over the past year. Next up is Matt Kuchar at +0.78 and Alexander Noren at +0.68. He enters with four straight top-10s to end his Korn Ferry Tour season.
Justin Suh ($9,800 | +5000) - A name we'll need to get used to, Suh won the Korn Ferry Tour Championship and ended the season with five top-10s in six starts. Suh ranked fifth on the Korn Ferry Tour in greens in regulation in the 2022 season.
Others to Consider:
Chris Kirk ($9,900 | +5000) - If not for a top-heavy build this week, he would be a core play: 96th-percentile T2G.
Chris Gotterup ($9,200 | +8000) - A ball-striker's ball-striker: 92nd-percentile in this field off-the-tee and 96th-percentile in approach but poor recent form.
Martin Laird ($9,200 | +6500) - Has a 94th-percentile T2G game but a bad putter; that's usually a fine recipe here.
Low-Salaried Picks
Adam Long ($9,000 | +6500) - Long checks the boxes as a good, balanced ball-striker. He has 68th-percentile play off the tee and 74th-percentile play with the irons. He's also got good putting (88th-percentile) supported by elite putting from within 15 feet (98th-percentile).
Luke List ($8,200 | +8500) - This salary is super low for List, and it's really not that egregious. He has 3rd-percentile putting, and that constantly derails his rounds. That said, he's the second-best adjusted ball-striker in the field, and that has to count for something in a field full of unproven names. He was bet down from +12000 to +8500.
Others to Consider:
Carl Yuan ($9,000 | +10000) - Two top-five results to end Korn Ferry Tour season; eighth in green in regulation last season on KFT.
Matthew NeSmith ($8,500 | +11000) - 90th-percentile tee-to-green numbers and iron play; that's appealing at $8,500.
Seonghyeon Kim ($7,700 | +14000) - Just 92nd in greens in regulation on KFT last season but drove it 312.3 on average and is a great putter.
Augusto Nunez ($7,000 | +21000) - Ended the KFT season with three of four missed cuts but long-term form is world-average; led KFT in GIR.