Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the Shriners Children's Open based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their golf betting odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook.
The PGA Tour heads to Vegas this week for a stalwart Fall Swing event at TPC Summerlin. Another weak fall field will try their hand at some of the friendliest scoring conditions on Tour.
Winning scores have beaten 20-under par in each of the last four seasons and all but three of the last 30 years. That scoring comes from iron play and timely putting, and these are some of the softest, slowest greens on Tour. We'll look for ball-strikers who have shown a propensity to get hot with the short stick as we fill out our card this week.
For more info on TPC Summerlin along with this week's key stats and Brandon Gdula's win simulations, check out Brandon's article.
At The Top
Max Homa (+1800) - Homa now has five career victories and has turned himself into a legitimate threat every time he tees it up. That's especially true in fields without many other elite talents, and with just Patrick Cantlay (+800) and Sungjae Im (+1100) ahead of him in the betting, that box is checked this week. The last two times we saw Homa, he was draining a walk-off chip to win the Fortinet Championship and going 4-0-0 in the Presidents Cup. He has a complete game now, ranking 25th in strokes gained: off the tee, 28th in strokes gained: putting, and 36th in strokes gained: approach in the 2021-22 season, and he was inside the top 25 in 15 of his 24 events played. Over the past few years, he has consistently competed each time he's putted well, and the level of confidence Homa arrives with this week puts him at the top of our short list.
Value Spot
Tom Hoge (+4200) - Hoge had one of the rockier up-and-down seasons of anyone on Tour last season, and he is far and away the least consistent of the golfers talented enough to finish inside the top 15 in strokes gained: approach. An unremarkable fall was highlighted by a T14 at the Shriners and T4 at the RSM Classic, and he began calendar 2022 with a missed cut, 2nd, missed cut, 1st, and T14. From that point on, Hoge had 16 regular season starts and was inside the top 30 just four times, and he had a stretch of six straight missed cuts that was bracketed by T9 at the PGA Championship and T4 at the 3M Open. Finishing 12th in strokes gained: approach and 30th in strokes gained: putting with that many duds indicates a true boom-or-bust game, and at a course where we prize iron play and putting, he naturally catches our eye at 42/1.
Rickie Fowler (+4500) - Something could be brewing for the free-falling Fowler, coming off a T6 at the Fortinet Championship to start his season in which he led the field in greens hit. He was 3rd at THE CJ CUP last year, juicing his Fall Swing bona fides at this stage of his career. Once upon a time, irons and putting were Rickie's bread and butter, and of all the rumored LIV defectors, Fowler is arguably the most surprising name to stick with the PGA Tour. He can still coast on sponsor exemptions in these fields, but he will need a victory to secure his place in a full schedule. This may be his best shot, and some desperation while in decent form is a good cocktail for some throwback Fowler magic.
Brian Harman (+5000) - Harman had a sneaky good season with six top-10s, including three in his final seven events. That season was good enough to qualify for the TOUR Championship, effectively signaling that he's one of the 30 best players on Tour. He doesn't blow you away in any specific statistic, but he's good enough in everything that if he gets hot in any one area, he can shoot up the leaderboard. Harman missed the cut last year at this event, but he was T13 in 2020 and T18 in 2019. The strength of this field gives Harman an opportunity to assert himself, and just as Homa stands out as a value at double the odds of the favorite Cantlay, Harman at twice Homa's price is worth investment.
Long Shots
Kyoung-Hoon Lee (+6000) - We may as well call him "TPC K.H. Lee" at this point. Back-to-back wins at the AT&T Byron Nelson, his runner-up at the Phoenix Open in 2021, and T14 here last year are among the best PGA finishes of his career, along with T5 and T12 in his two BMW Championship appearances. Spike finishes in weaker fields and an ability to stay in the mix against some of the best fields of the year are a clear indicator of high upside talent. Lee also got a taste of elite competition in his Presidents Cup debut, and while he lacks the flair of countryman Joohyung Kim (+2200), we like the odds on Lee far better to show out after Quail Hollow.
Andrew Landry (+42000) - Landry is a massive bomb but noteworthy for a top-10 in each of the last two Fall Swings and an early season win on the West Coast in January 2020. Few golfers are worthy of even a peek at this price, but Landry is a two-time PGA Tour winner and is still occasionally capable of a white-hot week. A (very) small bet on this number is worth the lottery ticket payout.