One more week of PGA Tour golf awaits before the unofficial offseason break. The 2022-23 season has been underway, but the true time off is about to hit, and we won't have PGA Tour golf until January after this week.
Before the layoff, we have The RSM Classic at Sea Island Golf Club (the Seaside Course and the Plantation Course).
Let's dig into the course(s), the key stats, the win simulations, and the best bets of the week.
You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.
7,005 (short: ~210 yards shorter than the average par 70)
Fairway Width: 42.8 yards (73rd of 80 qualified courses)
Average Green Size: 7,200 square feet (~117% of the PGA average)
Green Type: Bermuda
Stimpmeter: 13
Sea Island Golf Club (Plantation Course) Info & Key Stats
Par: 72
Distance: 7,060 (short: ~320 yards shorter than the average par 72)
Fairway Width: N/A
Average Green Size: 6,100 square feet (~100% of the PGA average)
Green Type: Bermuda
Event Info & Key Stats
Past 5 Winning Scores: -22, -19, -19, -19, -21
Past 5 Cut Lines: -3, -3, -4, -2, -3
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (Emphasis on Driving Accuracy), Birdie or Better Rate, Adjusted Strokes Gained
Golfers will get a round at each course before a 36-hole cut and then finish at the Seaside course on the weekend.
We should give more weight to the Seaside course, which is a short par 70 with big greens and wide fairways. That's naturally a recipe for low winning scores.
Overall, this event rewards accuracy with the driver and with irons, and distance off the tee is mitigated. You'll see that play out when we go over the golfers with the best form at this setup.
Simplifying the key stats has worked well for me long-term, and I'm going to keep doing so. We need strokes gained: approach, some accuracy, and some birdie ability at a course where -20 is likely going to be needed to win.
If you want to get a little cuter, you can look at proximity from 100 to 150 yards, which is a pretty key area here.
Golfers With Great Course/Event History
The best strokes gained averages among golfers who have played at least twice here over the past five years:
- Webb Simpson (+2.47: 8th, 37th, 2nd, 3rd, W/D)
- Zach Johnson (+1.72: 16th, 6th, 61st, 7th, 8th)
- Matthew NeSmith (+1.59: 29th, 15th, 14th)
- Will Gordon (+1.51: cut, 10th)
- Jason Day (+1.48: cut, 12th)
- Kevin Kisner (+1.45: cut, 2nd, cut, 7th, 4th)
- Justin Rose (+1.44: 12th, cut)
- John Huh (+1.32: 12th, 12th, cut, 37th)
- Vaughn Taylor (+1.21: cut, 30th, 10th, cut, 8th)
Past winners in the field include Robert Streb (2014, 2020), Tyler Duncan (2019), Austin Cook (2017), Mackenzie Hughes (2016), Kevin Kisner (2015), and Chris Kirk (2013).
These lists comprise shorter hitters, which makes a lot of sense given the length of each course. Any time Webb Simpson and Zach Johnson are atop the strokes gained list, it's anyone's ball-game from a course fit standpoint.
Win Simulations for The RSM Classic
Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
| Golfer | FanDuel Salary | Win% | Top- 10% | Made Cut% | FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Harman | $11,500 | 4.1% | 27.4% | 75.5% | +1800 |
| Taylor Montgomery | $10,900 | 3.8% | 22.4% | 67.3% | +2200 |
| Jason Day | $11,300 | 3.4% | 20.9% | 65.6% | +2000 |
| Tom Hoge | $11,100 | 2.9% | 23.9% | 72.2% | +2200 |
| Matt Kuchar | $9,900 | 2.7% | 21.9% | 70.8% | +3300 |
| Scott Stallings | $9,700 | 2.6% | 17.1% | 61.6% | +5000 |
| Justin Rose | $9,600 | 2.3% | 15.0% | 59.2% | +4500 |
| Matthew NeSmith | $10,300 | 2.2% | 16.2% | 60.9% | +2900 |
| Keith Mitchell | $10,800 | 2.2% | 19.1% | 68.7% | +2700 |
| Andrew Putnam | $9,800 | 2.2% | 20.9% | 70.3% | +2900 |
| J.J. Spaun | $9,800 | 2.1% | 16.3% | 61.3% | +5000 |
| Seamus Power | $11,700 | 2.1% | 17.9% | 66.5% | +2200 |
| Sahith Theegala | $10,700 | 2.0% | 15.4% | 58.9% | +3300 |
| Davis Riley | $11,200 | 2.0% | 14.2% | 58.2% | +2200 |
| Denny McCarthy | $10,400 | 1.9% | 18.9% | 68.7% | +2900 |
| Kevin Kisner | $9,700 | 1.7% | 13.5% | 57.7% | +4100 |
| Brendon Todd | $9,900 | 1.6% | 16.3% | 65.8% | +5000 |
| Lee Hodges | $9,100 | 1.5% | 11.9% | 56.2% | +5000 |
| J.T. Poston | $9,200 | 1.4% | 14.3% | 63.5% | +5500 |
| Taylor Pendrith | $10,100 | 1.4% | 11.8% | 58.6% | +3300 |
| Joel Dahmen | $11,000 | 1.3% | 12.8% | 60.6% | +2700 |
| Francesco Molinari | $8,800 | 1.3% | 10.9% | 53.3% | +9000 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | $10,500 | 1.3% | 11.1% | 56.0% | +2900 |
| Sepp Straka | $8,900 | 1.3% | 10.4% | 52.8% | +7000 |
| Chris Kirk | $9,400 | 1.2% | 13.0% | 60.3% | +5000 |
| Taylor Moore | $9,300 | 1.2% | 10.8% | 55.7% | +6000 |
| Stephan Jaeger | $8,900 | 1.2% | 10.4% | 53.9% | +8000 |
| Adam Svensson | $8,200 | 1.1% | 10.2% | 53.9% | +15000 |
| Ryan Armour | $8,300 | 1.1% | 10.8% | 54.1% | +12000 |
| Aaron Rai | $9,600 | 1.1% | 11.6% | 59.7% | +5000 |
| David Lipsky | $8,800 | 1.1% | 11.3% | 59.6% | +6500 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $10,000 | 1.0% | 10.4% | 58.9% | +3300 |
| Beau Hossler | $8,400 | 1.0% | 9.1% | 51.4% | +12000 |
| Nick Hardy | $9,300 | 1.0% | 10.2% | 53.8% | +6000 |
| Hayden Buckley | $9,000 | 1.0% | 8.8% | 51.7% | +7000 |
| Michael Thompson | $8,200 | 1.0% | 8.3% | 49.4% | +16000 |
| Alex Smalley | $9,400 | 0.9% | 11.1% | 59.5% | +5000 |
| Russell Knox | $8,600 | 0.9% | 9.8% | 56.7% | +11000 |
| Troy Merritt | $9,000 | 0.9% | 10.3% | 57.8% | +6500 |
| Luke List | $8,700 | 0.9% | 7.5% | 48.2% | +7500 |
| Harris English | $9,500 | 0.9% | 8.2% | 50.6% | +3300 |
| Brandon Wu | $8,600 | 0.9% | 8.6% | 50.1% | +11000 |
| Yechun Carl Yuan | $7,600 | 0.9% | 9.3% | 51.8% | +21000 |
| Benjamin Griffin | $8,600 | 0.9% | 7.6% | 48.1% | +8000 |
| Trey Mullinax | $8,800 | 0.8% | 7.6% | 48.0% | +7500 |
| Justin Lower | $8,400 | 0.8% | 8.0% | 54.4% | +10000 |
| William Gordon | $10,200 | 0.7% | 7.7% | 48.8% | +3300 |
| Stewart Cink | $8,000 | 0.7% | 6.8% | 46.5% | +17000 |
| Danny Willett | $8,700 | 0.7% | 7.6% | 51.0% | +10000 |
| Sam Ryder | $8,700 | 0.7% | 7.9% | 54.9% | +10000 |
| Scott Piercy | $8,500 | 0.7% | 7.6% | 47.9% | +11000 |
| Wyndham Clark | $9,500 | 0.6% | 8.7% | 54.8% | +4100 |
| Dean Burmester | $9,100 | 0.6% | 7.4% | 53.4% | +6000 |
| Adam Schenk | $8,500 | 0.6% | 7.3% | 47.8% | +12000 |
| Tyler Duncan | $7,700 | 0.6% | 6.9% | 46.4% | +21000 |
| Justin Suh | $8,800 | 0.6% | 8.5% | 55.2% | +9500 |
| Adam Long | $8,600 | 0.6% | 8.0% | 54.3% | +10000 |
| Greyson Sigg | $8,900 | 0.6% | 7.9% | 54.1% | +6500 |
| Robby Shelton IV | $8,200 | 0.6% | 6.9% | 50.7% | +12000 |
| David Lingmerth | $8,100 | 0.6% | 7.2% | 48.6% | +16000 |
| Austin Cook | $8,300 | 0.6% | 6.3% | 48.2% | +14000 |
| Paul Haley-II | $7,100 | 0.6% | 6.2% | 46.0% | +38000 |
| MJ Daffue | $7,700 | 0.5% | 5.4% | 44.3% | +21000 |
| Kevin Streelman | $8,500 | 0.5% | 7.2% | 50.7% | +12000 |
| Marty Dou Zecheng | $7,800 | 0.5% | 5.5% | 42.8% | +19000 |
| Chesson Hadley | $7,700 | 0.5% | 5.2% | 43.5% | +19000 |
| Seonghyeon Kim | $8,400 | 0.5% | 6.5% | 52.4% | +12000 |
| Vaughn Taylor | $7,400 | 0.5% | 4.9% | 44.1% | +32000 |
Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets for The RSM Classic
After the Tony Finau withdrawal, odds shifted substantially for everyone. As of Tuesday immediately after the withdrawal, a lot of the value disappeared.
The best values for now are actually well down the board with Matt Kuchar (+3300), Justin Rose (+4500), Scott Stallings (+5000), J.J. Spaun (+5000), and Francesco Molinari (+9000). Ryan Armour (+12000) and Adam Svensson (+15000) remain viable long shots, especially without someone soaking up 10.0-plus points of win probability.
The best top-10 options are Matt Kuchar (+490), Andrew Putnam (+490), Scott Stallings (+650), and J.J. Spaun (+550) with Carl Yuan (+1600) and Ryan Armour (+1200) in play, as well.
Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for The RSM Classic
All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. Putting surface splits also come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds when possible -- unless noted. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.
Best of the Best
Brian Harman (FanDuel Salary: $11,500 | Golf betting odds: +1800) - Harman is a great golfer and one without any real weaknesses in his game. He ranks top-30 in all three strokes gained: tee to green stats and is a plus putter over the past 50 rounds. Harman also ranks 19th in driving accuracy in that span. Over the past five years at this event, Harman has finished 4th, 32nd, 14th, cut, and 61st. He was runner-up at the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba and also top-25 in his two other starts this season.
Jason Day ($11,300 | +2000) - Day is in better form now than for most of his recent history. That includes four straight top-25 results, all supported by strong iron play and overall strokes gained data. Day putted his way to a T12 at this setup in 2021, and he, overall, has the potential to be the best golfer in this field by a good margin. He's an upside option.
Others to Consider:
Taylor Montgomery ($10,900 | +2200) - Finally didn't finish top-15 in his sixth start this year (T57 last week) but should hit greens and have a chance to flex the elite putter.
Keith Mitchell ($10,800 | +2700) - Really accurate driver who putts well. Makes sense to join the winner list.
Denny McCarthy ($10,400 | +2900) - Ranks 5th in strokes gained: approach through putting so a dominant golfer if we down-weight driver.
Mid-Range Picks
Matt Kuchar ($9,900 | +3300) - Kuchar can still pop at courses that don't require distance, and neither of these does. Kuchar has finished T37 in consecutive years at this event leading in and has three top-30 results to start this PGA Tour season. He ranks third in strokes gained: approach through putting. If we are okay forgiving the lack of distance (116th) in favor of accuracy (21st), then Kuchar does all we want for this setup.
J.T. Poston ($9,200 | +5500) - Not long ago, Poston's form was red hot. It hasn't quite been there in recent weeks: cut, T20, T67, cut to start the PGA Tour season. However, Poston ranks 26th in strokes gained: approach, 34th in around-the-green, and 18th in putting. Poston makes more sense for tournaments than he does for cash games and double-ups, but the ceiling is still there based on the underlying data in the profile. Especially at this low salary.
Others to Consider:
Andrew Putnam ($9,800 | +2900) - Sticking with Putnam, who is 2nd in strokes gained: fairway through green and 9th in accuracy.
Aaron Rai ($9,600 | +5000) - 1st in accuracy and top 45 in all four strokes gained: stats. A high-floor play (if those exist in PGA DFS).
Taylor Moore ($9,300 | +6000) - Carried by a good short game, but that can work this week; three top-25s in five starts.
Low-Salaried Picks
Russell Knox ($8,600 | +11000) - We want accurate driving, irons, and putting? Well, Knox has two of those. He's 26th in driving accuracy and 4th in strokes gained: approach. He ranks only 47th in putting (+0.11), but that's okay. He should see plenty of makeable putts, given his recipe of hitting fairways and greens.
Robby Shelton ($8,200 | +12000) - Shelton's salary is up $800 despite a solo 52nd last week, but that's all right because it's still a low salary. Shelton lost nearly a stroke per round on the greens, which is hard to envision doing again. He's ranked 55th in putting (gaining an average of 0.05 strokes there). Shelton is 13th in approach and 5th around the green. He also has three top-25 finishes in six starts to start the PGA Tour season.
Others to Consider:
Hayden Buckley ($9,000 | +7000) - Elite ball-striker (11th) for this field -- and accurate, too (13th).
Francesco Molinari ($8,800 | +9000) - Accurate (26th), decent irons (38th), great wedges (11th).
Ben Griffin ($8,600 | +8000) - T24, T60, T3, T59, T16 the past five events; 15th in T2G in his PGA Tour sample.