A grueling major test at Oak Hill last week for the PGA Championship could have some lingering effects on a portion of the field that teed it up last week.
This week, the PGA Tour is back to a familiar course: Colonial Country Club.
Three of the world's top 10 and 10 of the top 25 are in the field for this week in Fort Worth, Texas.
You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.
7th of 80)
Average Green Size: 5,000 square feet (small; PGA average: ~6,000)
Green Type: Bentgrass
Stimpmeter: 12-13
Recent Winning Scores: -9, -14, -15, -13, -20
Recent Cut Lines: +1, +1, -2, +2, +2
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (emphasis on Driving Accuracy), Strokes Gained: Putting, Total Strokes Gained, Birdie or Better Rate
It's a pretty short overall course this week at Colonial, but it's headlined by tight fairways, the seventh-narrowest of any on the PGA Tour. Until last year, winning scores were at least double-digits under par.
The small greens and narrow fairways don't necessarily lead to super scoring conditions, and the par 5s are generally tough.
Overall, we need some ball-striking and putting.
Golfers With Great Course/Event History
The best strokes gained averages among golfers who have played at least twice here over the past five years (a "-" indicates a did-not-play situation):
| Golfer | FanDuel Salary | Course SG:T/Rd | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Spieth | $11,800 | 2.10 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 32 |
| Tony Finau | $11,600 | 2.09 | 4 | 20 | 23 | 2 | - |
| Justin Rose | $10,600 | 1.72 | MC | 20 | 3 | 58 | 1 |
| Collin Morikawa | $11,300 | 1.67 | 40 | 14 | 2 | - | - |
| Brendon Todd | $9,600 | 1.59 | 3 | 8 | MC | - | - |
| Viktor Hovland | $11,500 | 1.40 | 21 | - | 23 | - | - |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | $9,700 | 1.18 | 15 | - | MC | - | - |
| Emiliano Grillo | $9,400 | 1.15 | 63 | 8 | MC | 19 | 3 |
| Andrew Putnam | $8,700 | 1.01 | 15 | MC | MC | 3 | 20 |
| Brian Harman | $10,000 | 1.00 | MC | 8 | 23 | 31 | 14 |
| Sungjae Im | $11,000 | 0.96 | 15 | MC | 10 | MC | - |
| Max Homa | $10,800 | 0.94 | 23 | - | MC | 27 | - |
| Cam Davis | $10,100 | 0.89 | 7 | 45 | MC | - | - |
| Scottie Scheffler | $12,000 | 0.86 | 2 | MC | 55 | - | - |
Past winners in the field include Sam Burns (2022), Justin Rose (2018), Kevin Kisner (2017), Jordan Spieth (2016), Chris Kirk (2015), Zach Johnson (2010 and 2012), and Rory Sabbatini (2007).
Win Simulations for the Charles Schwab Challenge
Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
| Golfer | FanDuel Salary | Win% | Top- 10% | Made Cut% | FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | $12,000 | 15.7% | 58.7% | 90.3% | +450 |
| Tony Finau | $11,600 | 6.2% | 40.2% | 79.5% | +1400 |
| Collin Morikawa | $11,300 | 5.0% | 31.8% | 72.0% | +1800 |
| Viktor Hovland | $11,500 | 4.8% | 29.5% | 70.5% | +1400 |
| Sungjae Im | $11,000 | 4.8% | 31.4% | 74.6% | +2000 |
| Jordan Spieth | $11,800 | 4.4% | 27.1% | 69.7% | +1200 |
| Max Homa | $10,800 | 3.8% | 31.7% | 75.2% | +2200 |
| Justin Rose | $10,600 | 2.8% | 25.0% | 68.7% | +3000 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $10,500 | 2.4% | 22.4% | 67.9% | +3000 |
| Rickie Fowler | $10,700 | 2.2% | 20.8% | 66.5% | +3000 |
| Russell Henley | $10,400 | 2.0% | 18.9% | 64.3% | +4500 |
| Denny McCarthy | $9,900 | 1.9% | 20.8% | 66.4% | +7500 |
| Brendon Todd | $9,600 | 1.8% | 20.3% | 64.0% | +8000 |
| Sam Burns | $10,900 | 1.8% | 16.1% | 58.3% | +2200 |
| Chris Kirk | $10,200 | 1.7% | 16.0% | 62.6% | +5500 |
| Si Woo Kim | $10,300 | 1.5% | 15.7% | 62.3% | +5000 |
| Andrew Putnam | $8,700 | 1.2% | 17.5% | 63.2% | +15000 |
| Kyoung-hoon Lee | $9,900 | 1.1% | 14.0% | 58.9% | +8000 |
| Cameron Davis | $10,100 | 1.1% | 11.6% | 52.8% | +4500 |
| Brian Harman | $10,000 | 1.1% | 13.0% | 57.1% | +6000 |
| Taylor Moore | $9,300 | 1.0% | 13.7% | 58.2% | +8000 |
| J.J. Spaun | $9,100 | 1.0% | 12.1% | 53.5% | +10000 |
| Nick Taylor | $8,800 | 1.0% | 12.6% | 58.2% | +12000 |
| Tom Hoge | $9,700 | 1.0% | 12.8% | 56.0% | +6500 |
| Kurt Kitayama | $9,800 | 0.9% | 10.8% | 51.2% | +7500 |
| Hayden Buckley | $9,500 | 0.9% | 11.2% | 52.7% | +12000 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | $9,700 | 0.9% | 12.3% | 57.7% | +9000 |
| J.T. Poston | $9,000 | 0.9% | 11.2% | 54.8% | +11000 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $9,500 | 0.8% | 10.8% | 54.1% | +9000 |
| Stephan Jaeger | $9,600 | 0.8% | 10.2% | 54.9% | +7000 |
| Emiliano Grillo | $9,400 | 0.7% | 8.9% | 49.5% | +10000 |
| Ryan Fox | $9,300 | 0.7% | 9.8% | 50.1% | +8000 |
| Benjamin Griffin | $8,200 | 0.7% | 10.5% | 50.7% | +15000 |
| Min Woo Lee | $9,800 | 0.7% | 8.3% | 47.3% | +6500 |
| Thomas Detry | $9,000 | 0.7% | 9.2% | 48.3% | +8000 |
| Beau Hossler | $8,700 | 0.7% | 7.4% | 49.7% | +10000 |
| Harris English | $9,200 | 0.6% | 8.6% | 48.1% | +8000 |
| Scott Stallings | $8,600 | 0.6% | 8.5% | 48.0% | +15000 |
| Ben Martin | $8,200 | 0.6% | 8.0% | 46.7% | +17000 |
| Lucas Herbert | $8,800 | 0.6% | 6.8% | 42.9% | +8000 |
| Alex Noren | $8,500 | 0.6% | 9.8% | 54.4% | +15000 |
| Eric Cole | $8,700 | 0.5% | 8.0% | 48.8% | +11000 |
| Ryan Palmer | $8,800 | 0.5% | 6.1% | 43.1% | +12000 |
| Alex Smalley | $9,200 | 0.5% | 7.4% | 47.1% | +10000 |
| Sam Ryder | $8,000 | 0.5% | 11.0% | 55.3% | +25000 |
| Aaron Rai | $8,700 | 0.5% | 6.8% | 47.2% | +22000 |
| Justin Suh | $9,000 | 0.5% | 9.4% | 50.4% | +10000 |
| Robby Shelton IV | $8,200 | 0.5% | 7.9% | 48.0% | +20000 |
| Maverick McNealy | $8,900 | 0.5% | 8.4% | 50.7% | +10000 |
Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets for the Charles Schwab Challenge
As a heavy favorite, Scottie Scheffler isn't showing any particular value in my model for the week despite having a better win chance than any other two golfers combined. He's also nearly as likely to win as the next three names combined.
An even value exists for Sungjae Im at +2000, and he's got two top-15s in his past three attempts at Colonial. He fits from an accuracy standpoint, as well.
The early returns just aren't that promising in terms of pure value.
Long shots Denny McCarthy (+7500) and Brendon Todd (+8000) are boosted pretty substantially at this course and are, thus, rating out well in the simulation model. The same can be said about Andrew Putnam (+15000).
Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the Charles Schwab Challenge
All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.
Best of the Best
Scottie Scheffler (FanDuel Salary: $12,000 | Golf betting odds: +400) - There's one clear standout superstar in the field from a daily fantasy standpoint, and it's Scheffler, who was one golfer away from a playoff for the PGA Championship. Scheffler's putting is not particularly great right now, and the putting splits from 5 to 10 feet (a predictive range) are also just average. Scheffler's gaining 2.87 true strokes per round from his tee-to-green game over the past 50 rounds, which is 0.94 strokes per round better than any other golfer in this field.
Sungjae Im ($11,000 | +2000) - With a stacked Tier 2 behind Scheffler, it's likely we'll get Sungjae Im overlooked. He has strong putting splits from 5 to 10 feet and is accurate (5th) off the tee. The irons are not elite (56th) right now, yet he does help save us salary from the second tier guys while also giving us access to big-time win equity.
Others to Consider:
Jordan Spieth ($11,800 | +1200)
Viktor Hovland ($11,500 | +1400)
Justin Rose ($10,600 | +3000)
Russell Henley ($10,400 | +4500)
Mid-Range Picks
Denny McCarthy ($9,900 | +7500) - Quietly, McCarthy is playing some good golf -- by the results, at least. He was T29 at the PGA Championship, T8 at the Wells Fargo Championship, T11 in the team event (Zurich), and T25 at the RBC Heritage. Now, he's not a great ball-striker (41st), but he's also not terrible there. This course suits him and his short game (14th) well.
Brendon Todd ($9,600 | +8000) - For the most part, McCarthy and Todd go hand-in-hand. Todd's got consecutive top-10 finishes at Colonial. He's got the field's best combined short game yet is 91st in combined ball-striking. He's 11th in accuracy, though, so he loses a lot of strokes off the tee from distance -- something that is forgivable this week.
Others to Consider:
Taylor Moore ($9,300 | +8000)
J.J. Spaun ($9,100 | +10000)
Low-Salaried Picks
Nick Taylor ($8,800 | +12000) - Taylor has a balanced profile for this field: 58th off the tee, 51st in approach, 22nd around the green, and 30th in putting. He's coming off of a missed cut at the PGA Championship and doesn't have a ton of recent starts under his belt but is an all-around golfer with a lot of experience at Colonial -- not that it's all good. It's a strong value profile, though.
Andrew Putnam ($8,700 | +15000) - Putnam has the best win odds in my model among the value tier, so it's no wonder that I like him. He missed the cut at the PGA Championship last week but had gained at least 1.12 strokes per round from approach alone in three events leading into it. We've seen him finish top-20 in three starts at Colonial -- while missing the cut in the other two.
Others to Consider:
J.T. Poston ($9,000 | +11000)
Eric Cole ($8,700 | +11000)
Ben Martin ($8,200 | +17000)