Why There's Breakout Potential
Alex Reyes has a similar profile to Glasnow -- he's a hard-throwing right-hander who can miss a lot of bats. The biggest difference between them so far is that Reyes saw a fair amount of success in his limited exposure to the big leagues.
In 46 innings with the St. Louis Cardinals (5 starts, 12 total appearances), he posted a 4-1 record with a sparkling 1.57 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 52 strikeouts. Reyes has always missed bats at an elite level, but it went up a notch upon reaching High-A in 2015. It didn't stop once he reached the big leagues, either.
| Year | Level | Innings Pitched | K/9 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | A+ | 63 2/3 | 13.57% |
| 2015 | AA | 34 2/3 | 13.50% |
| 2016 | AAA | 65 1/3 | 12.81% |
| 2016 | MLB | 46 | 10.17% |
Despite the similarities to Glasnow, Reyes has the benefit of likely having a spot in the Cardinals' rotation to start 2017, making him a potentially more popular name on draft day.
Why it Might Not Happen
The traditional numbers paint a very rosy picture for Reyes' first opportunity against big-league hitters, but his peripherals tell another story.
While that 1.57 ERA looks great, his Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP, (2.67), xFIP (4.05) and SIERA (3.96) all show he may not have been as dominant as we thought. Check out his BB/9 and LOB% at each minor-league stop, compared to his cup of coffee in the majors.
| Year | Level | Innings Pitched | BB/9 | LOB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Rookie | 58.1 | 4.32 | 70.90% |
| 2014 | A | 109.1 | 5.02 | 66.90% |
| 2015 | A+ | 63.2 | 4.38 | 75.90% |
| 2015 | AA | 34.2 | 4.67 | 67.40% |
| 2016 | AAA | 65.1 | 4.41 | 67.30% |
| 2016 | MLB | 46 | 4.5 | 87.90% |
All of a sudden, those advanced ERA estimators don't seem so crazy.
Reyes' big-league numbers could be skewed a bit because he split time in the rotation and the bullpen. Now projected to be a full-time starter, he'll likely have to depend on more than his fastball and changeup, which ESPN's Keith Law pointed out could be a problem.
He'll get strikeouts, the opportunity to rack up innings and the likelihood of a solid team behind him, but there's still work to be done before he's viewed as one of baseball's top young starters.