The unholy trinity of age, injury, and poor performance just cost Jose Bautista several million dollars in free agency. Thought to be looking for a new multi-year contract averaging $30 million per season heading into 2016, Bautista had to settle for an $18 million deal for this season with a mutual optional for $17 million in 2018.
No doubt, Bautista is aiming to stay healthy and put up the kind of numbers to make the decision to opt out an easy one. In the four seasons which Bautista exceeded 149 games played, he has hit at least 35 home runs, driven in at least 101 runs, walked at least 100 times, and produced an OPS of .913 or better.
In a case of worst possible timing for a pending free agent, 2016 was not one of those seasons for Bautista. He suffered a quadriceps injury in early June and hit the disabled list (DL) a few days later with a sprained left big toe, which cost him nearly 40 calendar days. In August, a sprained left knee put Bautista back on the shelf, this time for the minimum 15 days.
Even prior to the quad issue, Bautista was only batting .234 through 61 games, but he had hit 12 home runs and owned an .846 OPS. Over the final 55 games, he added 10 more homers while mirroring the .234 average -- all while dropping down to an uninspiring .786 OPS.
Through the struggles, Bautista continued to draw walks, posting his highest walk rate (16.8%) since 2011. However, after seeing his strikeout rate stay below 16% for four consecutive years, Bautista fanned nearly 20% of the time. Even a career-high hard-hit rate of 41% had a downside -- a soft-hit rate of more than 20% for just the second time in Bautista's career.
Turning 36 years old after an injury-filled season is not something that is going to inspire fantasy baseball enthusiasts. As such, Bautista is going as the 26th outfielder in National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) drafts and just recently moved inside the top 30 at the position in the FantasyPros expert consensus ranking. If you can stomach the career .255 batting average, there's a lot of power potential on the other side. Those in leagues which heavily reward on-base percentage should especially be open to taking a chance on Bautista at the current asking price.