Once the Washington Nationals acquired Adam Eaton, it seemed like a given that he would be their new leadoff hitter. The team ranked 28th in on-base percentage from its leadoff hitters last year, and Eaton has been above .360 in that category each of the past three seasons.
This is why we don't make assumptions.
Dusty hinted that Turner will hit leadoff. Then wondered if 3 straight lefties would be a problem and suggested Werth could hit 2nd again.
— Jorge Castillo (@jorgeccastillo) February 17, 2017
If Nationals manager Dusty Baker is already saying that Trea Turner will hit leadoff, then Eaton would appear to be a longshot with lefties Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper to follow. Eaton's fantasy value -- like his spot in the order -- is starting to drop.
Hitting in front of Turner, Murphy, and Harper would be a dream come true for prospective Eaton investors. Those are all talented bats who would allow Eaton to bathe in runs scored, and the spot atop the order would give him tons of volume. If he's hitting sixth, he's far less appealing.
Such a move would have a reverse effect for Jayson Werth, who could be the player moving up to the two hole. He's entering his age-38 season, but he still had a 36.0% hard-hit rate and 41.6% fly-ball rate last year. There are always injury concerns with Werth, but hitting second in this lineup would give him value, even if the upside in a guy of his profile is limited. Werth's ADP is 365.0, so all risks are more than baked into his current cost.
As for Eaton, it would be a lot harder to justify his ADP of 120.7 if he's not batting either first or second. A big part of his value comes from volume and the perks of the top of the order, and taking that away is a major penalty. Watch the lineups and the chatter through spring training and back off if things are trending toward Eaton hitting lower in the lineup.