Just like with batting orders, we want to target ambiguity within bullpens of great teams. If a team projected to win a ton of games has the final inning open, we need some of that goodness.
Few teams are projected to be better than the Nationals this year, and there's an open competition for their save opportunities.
Mike Rizzo told us the Nats closer will come from Shawn Kelley, Blake Treinin or Koda Glover #Nationals
— Jim Bowden (@JimBowden_ESPN) February 20, 2017
There's a bit extra ambiguity here due to having three names in the mix, but the upsides of nailing the eventual winner are immeasurable.
Let's just get a quick glimpse at each of these guys by looking at their numbers from last year. Because the sample sizes on relievers are so low, we'll eschew ERA in favor of skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), which stabilizes more quickly and is thus more trustworthy in a reliever-esque workload. It's worth mentioning that Koda Glover didn't get called up until July 20th, limiting him to 19 2/3 innings, so take in his numbers with even more caution.
| Pitcher | SIERA | Strikeout Rate | Walk Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Kelley | 2.11 | 35.7% | 4.9% |
| Blake Treinen | 3.52 | 24.0% | 11.8% |
| Koda Glover | 4.21 | 19.3% | 8.4% |
If this were decided based on effectiveness, Shawn Kelley would dust the field. Unfortunately, it's not quite that easy.
When talking about the closer situation earlier this year, Baker expressed concerns about Kelley's ability to stay healthy, saying it could be a reason they look elsewhere, according to Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post. We shouldn't worry much about Kelley's health until something happens, but Baker's trepidation is noteworthy.
The other potential obstacle to Kelley snagging the job is a trade. The Nationals were previously linked to White Sox reliever David Robertson, who would push all of Kelley, Treinen, and Glover down the totem pole. Those talks have hit a stalemate, according to Bob Nightengale and Jorge L. Ortiz of USA Today, so it seems as if Baker's concerns are the biggest impediment.
Kelley's ADP right now is 210.3. If he were named the closer, it could jump 100 places instantly. We should be rolling the dice on him for the time being and hoping that he winds up getting the job. It can't hurt, though, to fire some shares at Treinen (ADP of 423) and Glover until things are definitive.