NFBC ADP: 201.47 | Projected Steals: 34
In Rajai Davis, you are likely getting: an every-day player, a leadoff hitter, and a person who stole 43 bags last year.
Why in the heck is this guy going after pick 200?
In reality, this is partially understandable because Davis is a speedy guy enter his age-36 season. At some point, you'd expect the physical tools to decline, but we haven't seen that. He has stolen at least 30 bases in seven of the past eight seasons, and he topped 10 dingers for the first time in his career last year. Part of that was playing in hitter-friendly Progressive Field, and he loses that this year, but the skills don't seem to be deteriorating.
Davis -- like Broxton -- isn't going to help you out in the batting average department thanks mostly to a 26.5% hard-hit rate. But couldn't we say the same thing about Billy Hamilton, who is going 150 picks earlier?
Here's a head-to-head comparison between Hamilton and Davis with numberFire's projections for the upcoming season. Obviously, Hamilton has more value, but is he actually 150 picks better?
| 2016 Projections | Plate Appearances | Average | Runs | RBIs | Home Runs | Steals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Hamilton | 512 | .249 | 66 | 30 | 3 | 58 |
| Rajai Davis | 425 | .249 | 58 | 43 | 10 | 34 |
Although Hamilton dusts Davis in steals, Davis holds a big edge in homers and RBIs, and the runs are close. And this is while holding a conservative projection on plate appearances for Davis. If he winds up batting leadoff -- as he has been during the spring -- Davis could very well have greater value than Hamilton straight up.
Davis doesn't have the upside of Broxton due to the gap in power, but he likely has a much higher floor. For this reason, we should be trying to do what we can to snag Davis in our drafts. Yes, he's boring and old, but that's production we shouldn't overlook.