Yahoo ADP: 147.1 | ESPN ADP: 192.2
If Aaron Nola were fully healthy, he'd be a no-brainer, even at his amped-up Yahoo ADP. Unfortunately, we can't know that's the case, and it's keeping him from being a bargain.
Nola dealt with elbow soreness after a hot start last year, and it made him a player to monitor in spring training. The monitoring hasn't been overly reassuring thus far.
Aaron Nola's line, on St. Patrick's Day:
4 2/3 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 4 BB, 4 K pic.twitter.com/pTFPUVK1Y5
— Matt Gelb (@MattGelb) March 17, 2017
After that, Nola now has 13 strikeouts and 5 walks in 12 spring innings pitched. The strikeouts are good, but the walk issues on Friday have to make you wonder whether everything's clicking properly.
Even with the injuries in 2016, Nola had a 3.29 SIERA with a 25.1% strikeout rate, 6.0% walk rate, and 55.2% ground-ball rate. Those are ace-like marks. But can we justify investing with the injury concerns?
That's a bit of a hard sell at his Yahoo ADP. Behind his ADP is a guy in Kevin Gausman with similar upside and fewer concerns. On ESPN, though, the cost is lower, meaning you can take some risks, and Nola may be worth a roll of the dice there.