Yahoo ADP: 200.1 | ESPN ADP: 153.2
You either love Drew Smyly, or you hate him. It seems like more of the latter are drafting on Yahoo.
It is fully logical that Smyly would be in this class because he tends to always be in the statistical extremes. He started 2016 with a stout 27.7% strikeout rate through his first 13 starts, but a frighteningly low 31.4% ground-ball rate allowed opponents to launch dongs delight. His results got better as the year went along, but a declining strikeout rate made his peripherals less appealing.
By the end of the season, Smyly had cut his opponent hard-hit rate to a solid 29.6%, and his season-ending strikeout rate was 22.6%. If he coupled those numbers for an entire season in the Seattle Mariners' pitcher-friendly park, he'd likely be worth his current ADP. But there may be more upside than that based on what he did in the World Baseball Classic last week.
.@USABaseball starting pitchers=🔥🔥🔥
Drew Smyly exits with 8 Ks after 4 2/3 IP. #WBC2017 pic.twitter.com/9vEFVj6tP6
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) March 16, 2017
Smyly was hitting 94 miles per hour on the radar gun, up from his average fastball velocity of 90.2 miles per hour last year. He said the velocity stemmed from extra rest and adrenaline, according to Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times, so it'll be important to track how hard he's throwing in upcoming spring starts, but any increase would make him a huge value on Yahoo and a worthy pick on ESPN.