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Trevor Bauer's current 6.35 ERA over 17 innings sure looks ugly, but it masks a 3.20 expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) mark that bests the Cleveland Indians hurler's career average by more than a run. Lost among the poor results is a major jump in strikeouts-per-nine rate (way up over 10.5 compared to his 8.36 career rate) and a nice dip in walk rate (down to 2.65 walks-per-nine from 3.84 on his career), though a notable decline in first-pitch-strike rate might suggest that Bauer's command woes aren't firmly in the rear view.

At first glance, Wednesday's matchup against the Houston Astros might seem somewhat daunting for Bauer -- Houston was once catnip for fantasy steaming, but they've cut down on their strikeouts significantly, boasting one of the league's lowest strikeout rates against righties on the young season. Still, the team's .794 OPS against righties on the year seems like a bit of a sample-size anomaly, considering they're scratched out no fewer than 20 infield hits so far, a league-leading total.

It's also worth noting that the Astros have struggled mightily against the cutter this year. That pitch is a cornerstone of Bauer's arsenal, and though he's had mixed results with that pitch so far this season, the 19.7 percent whiff rate on that cutter could spell trouble for the young, eager-to-swing Astros squad. There's a bit of risk in rolling Bauer out against such a potentially deadly offense, but there could be a ton of strikeout upside, as well.