Preseason ADP: 272.59

The Start

There's no doubt Baltimore was hoping for Dylan Bundy to take a leap forward in his development on the mound this year, but did they expect him to be a top-15 starter with regard to fWAR at this point? Probably not.

His strikeout rate is only 18.1% so far, but a 10.2% swinging-strike rate tells us he could be due for a little bump at some point if he keeps it up. Once that happens, the gap between his 2.26 ERA and 4.47 SIERA will get much smaller.

What's also interesting is that Bundy has added another pitch to his arsenal. Up until this year, he's been a fastball/changeup/curveball guy, while relying on his heater over 60.0% of the time. So far in 2017, he's throwing his fastball less than 50.0% of the time (48.7%, to be exact) and the pitch he's thrown the most after that is a slider, which he's used 21.2% of the time.

How Sustainable Is it?

As mentioned with Wade Miley, Bundy has a bit of a disadvantage when it comes to the division he pitches in. Not only is Camden Yards a hitter-friendly venue, but so are places like the Rogers Centre, Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium.

That's why his 29.9% ground-ball rate jumps out, along with his 27.1% line-drive rate and 42.9% fly-ball rate. If these trends continue -- including what would be a career-high 30.7% hard-hit rate -- that .253 BABIP allowed won't stay that low much longer.

Seeing an uptick in strikeouts would be helpful, enabling the right-hander to keep this production going.