These 12 teams have a nERD below their average run differential, thereby indicating that they have outdone their on-field play and the actual results.
| Team | nERD | Run Diff/G | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers | -0.83 | 0.31 | -1.14 |
| Baltimore Orioles | -0.36 | 0.28 | -0.64 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0.00 | 0.59 | -0.59 |
| Chicago White Sox | -0.34 | 0.14 | -0.48 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | -0.70 | -0.38 | -0.32 |
| Colorado Rockies | -0.12 | 0.18 | -0.30 |
| Detroit Tigers | -0.56 | -0.28 | -0.28 |
| Chicago Cubs | -0.15 | 0.05 | -0.20 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | -1.17 | -1.00 | -0.17 |
| Washington Nationals | 1.29 | 1.43 | -0.14 |
| New York Mets | -0.69 | -0.62 | -0.07 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | -0.19 | -0.17 | -0.02 |
As bad as they've been, the one thing the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets can say is that they have performed nearly spot on their expected run differential.
Of all the teams on this list, only the Washington Nationals and Milwaukee Brewers have a nERD of 0.0 or greater. The Nationals are the best team, with a record of 24-13 and an average run differential that places them second among all teams. Albeit slight, they're bound to regress moving forward.
The 19-20 Texas Rangers top the list with an expected run differential more than one run below their actual margin for the year. They're nearly .500, but that should change if their play through 39 games is any indication.