As it has been over the last few weeks, this group basically consists of the same cast of characters. After a two-week escape from last place, the Kansas City Royals are once again the worst team in baseball, while the San Diego Padres are doing pretty much what we expected them to do.
Meanwhile, there are two teams that clearly jump out -- one that's tumbling and one that's moving on up.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Kansas City Royals | -1.10 | 18-26 | 1.2% | -2 |
| 29 | San Diego Padres | -1.04 | 16-30 | 0.0% | -3 |
| 28 | Pittsburgh Pirates | -0.99 | 20-25 | 3.7% | +2 |
| 27 | San Francisco Giants | -0.91 | 20-26 | 10.9% | +2 |
| 26 | New York Mets | -0.75 | 18-24 | 9.8% | -2 |
| 25 | Philadelphia Phillies | -0.72 | 15-27 | 0.4% | -6 |
| 24 | Toronto Blue Jays | -0.62 | 19-26 | 8.8% | +1 |
| 23 | Detroit Tigers | -0.50 | 21-22 | 16.4% | 0 |
| 22 | Baltimore Orioles | -0.42 | 25-18 | 34.7% | -1 |
| 21 | Texas Rangers | -0.39 | 24-21 | 22.6% | +6 |
Biggest Rise: Texas Rangers
All they needed to do was hit rock bottom before gaining some momentum, I guess.
Two weeks ago, the Texas Rangers were a disappointing 13-20 with a 3.2% chance of making the playoffs while occupying the last spot in our team power rankings. They began their ascent last week by moving up three spots, and their latest jump has them on the verge of exiting this subset of teams.
Texas' starting rotation went 5-1 over the past week, but it was the offense doing a lot of the heavy lifting -- their team wRC+ of 136 over the last seven days ranks second behind the Chicago Cubs, and they're boasting a healthy .303/.378/.502 triple-slash during this time.
After a very slow start, Mike Napoli has caught fire at the plate -- he led all Rangers position players during this time frame with a 0.5 fWAR off the strength of a 273 wRC+ and a .573 wOBA. Having his walk rate (23.8%) be higher than his strikeout rate (19.0%) during his last 21 plate appearances also helps.
Biggest Drop: Philadelphia Phillies
Nobody likes having a bad week, but when a 14-21 team has a bad week, it makes things even worse. That's what happened to the Philadelphia Phillies, who went 1-6 over their past seven games. As a rebuilding club, they weren't expected to make the playoffs, but it's not fun to watch their playoff odds get slashed from 2.4% to 0.4%, per our models, like it has since the last time we checked in.
What's interesting -- or sad, depending on how you're looking at this -- is how Philly is covering both ends of the spectrum. Despite a 1-5 record and a 4.86 ERA from the starting rotation, their pitching's 1.0 fWAR was actually the highest in baseball over the past seven days. The offense, though? Well, their -1.0 fWAR was the worst in baseball, as was their anemic 40 wRC+.