There hasn't been a whole lot of change going on at the bottom. However, the San Diego Padres probably don't feel all that lonely anymore since the Philadelphia Phillies have joined them as the only two clubs in baseball with current playoff odds that are depressing for fans on the day after Memorial Day -- even if they're in the midst of rebuilds.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Kansas City Royals | -1.19 | 21-29 | 1.4% | 0 |
| 29 | San Diego Padres | -1.08 | 20-33 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 28 | Philadelphia Phillies | -0.98 | 17-32 | 0.0% | -3 |
| 27 | San Francisco Giants | -0.96 | 22-31 | 5.9% | 0 |
| 26 | Pittsburgh Pirates | -0.75 | 24-28 | 4.8% | +2 |
| 25 | Baltimore Orioles | -0.69 | 26-23 | 18.5% | -3 |
| 24 | Texas Rangers | -0.59 | 25-27 | 8.6% | -3 |
| 23 | Detroit Tigers | -0.55 | 24-27 | 11.8% | 0 |
| 22 | New York Mets | -0.36 | 22-27 | 12.7% | +4 |
| 21 | Atlanta Braves | -0.32 | 22-27 | 5.3% | -3 |
Biggest Rise: New York Mets
Are the New York Mets still alive and kicking?! The math doesn't give them a great chance, but they're still here.
Manager Terry Collins watched his club go 4-3 since we last checked in around the league, and while it'll be great to eventually get Yoenis Cespedes back from the disabled list, the most encouraging thing he probably watched recently was having a couple of his starters go deep into games.
Jacob deGrom went 8.1 innings during a dominant 8-1 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates last Friday, while Robert Gsellman put forth his best effort of 2017 on Monday with seven strong frames of his own. For a starting rotation that's averaged just over five innings per start, it's imperative for them to continually go deeper and take some pressure off a bullpen that has produced just a 0.5 fWAR this season, which is among the worst in baseball.
The eventual returns of Steven Matz and Seth Lugo won't hurt, either.
Biggest Drop: Baltimore Orioles
Not too long ago, we were talking about how the Baltimore Orioles weren't getting any love from our metrics. It seems like I jinxed them, since they're now just three games over .500 following a 1-5 week.
Their spot in our power rankings didn't drastically change compared to last week's edition, but their playoff odds sure did. Just seven days ago, manager Buck Showalter's squad had a 34.7% chance of returning to October, which looks a lot different compared to the current 18.5% mark.
As for what's caused this current cold streak, nothing is going right for Baltimore -- their team wRC+ of 44 was the worst in baseball over the past week, while the starting rotation went 1-5 with a 5.51 ERA. With a 5.42 FIP accompanying this cumulative performance, it's not as if they ran into a lot of tough luck.