Starts: June 5th vs. San Francisco Giants, June 10th at Arizona Diamondbacks
ESPN ownership: 17 percent

Even amid an emaciated starter market, standard leaguers have been slow to embrace recently activated Milwaukee Brewers righty Junior Guerra despite his impressive results (1.84 ERA and near-eight strikeouts per nine) in three starts since returning from a calf strain.

Shrewd starter speculators are likely staring down the 4.29 expected fielded independent pitching (xFIP) that takes a fair bit of shine off of Guerra's 122-plus innings of 2.81 ERA ball from last season. There's a similar discrepancy in his small sample on the current season -- his 2017 xFIP stands at 4.45. Incredulous streamers could also be eyeing this week's matchup against the hard-hitting Diamondbacks -- in Chase Field, no less, where the D-backs compete for the league lead isolated slugging (ISO) at home.

Guerra's plus split-finger is his secret weapon here. That sinker is a near-elite pitch, one that has already induced 12 punchouts across 58 offerings this season, and most of Arizona's major offensive threats have graded as below-average producers off sinkers so far this season.

Of course, there's a risk for major flameout here, with Guerra struggling to command the added movement on his fastball while getting his slider absolutely clobbered. He's thus far allowed a 525 weighted runs created plus (wRC+) on that latter pitch (you read that right -- a 525 wRC+).

As such, many streamers will be more eager to tab Guerra's teammate Chase Anderson for his two-start turn this week, perhaps noting that Anderson is fresh off a dominant 11-strikeout start against these very Diamondbacks (his former team, no less) in late May. That familiarity might work to Anderson's disadvantage, though -- in the two starts this year that have tasked Anderson with facing a team for a second time, the 29-year-old gave up a total of 10 earned runs and walked six batters.

Let's instead zig while your league-mates zag. Guerra is a high-risk play, for sure, but there's a start against the hapless Giants to soften the potential blow.