The Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres are still the only clubs with playoff odds currently at 0%, but there are a handful of squads -- like the Kansas City Royals, San Francisco Giants, and Texas Rangers -- who have inched closer.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Kansas City Royals | -1.11 | 24-32 | 1.0% | 0 |
| 29 | Philadelphia Phillies | -1.03 | 20-35 | 0.0% | -1 |
| 28 | San Diego Padres | -0.98 | 23-35 | 0.0% | +1 |
| 27 | San Francisco Giants | -0.88 | 24-35 | 3.8% | 0 |
| 26 | Texas Rangers | -0.74 | 26-31 | 3.8% | -2 |
| 25 | Pittsburgh Pirates | -0.67 | 26-31 | 5.2% | +1 |
| 24 | Baltimore Orioles | -0.59 | 29-26 | 17.7% | +1 |
| 23 | New York Mets | -0.51 | 24-31 | 6.1% | -1 |
| 22 | Atlanta Braves | -0.30 | 24-31 | 4.1% | -1 |
| 21 | Detroit Tigers | -0.18 | 28-28 | 25.4% | +2 |
Biggest Rise: Detroit Tigers
At this time last week, the Detroit Tigers were still hanging out under .500, but they have clawed their way back at 28-28, increasing their playoff odds nearly 14 percentage points in the process. While certain hitters have gotten off to slow starts -- I'm looking at you, Miguel Cabrera -- the offense shouldn't be a problem. It's the starting rotation that probably gives manager Brad Ausmus night terrors.
Reigning American League Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer has been solid, but he's the only hurler on the starting staff with an ERA under 4.47 (he has a 3.00 ERA and 2.97 FIP). Justin Verlander has struggled, and the rest of this group -- including Daniel Norris, Matt Boyd and Jordan Zimmermann -- haven't been much better.
Biggest Drop: Texas Rangers
The Rangers have been in a similar position to the Tigers since the last time we checked in around the league, but on the opposite end of the spectrum. They settled into last place in our power rankings as recently as May 9th, but rose to as high as 24th last week.
After having the biggest jump among this group in the last edition, they've produced the biggest drop after a 1-4 record in their last five games. Predictably so, nothing is going right for Texas at the moment -- the rotation has posted a 7.99 ERA and 7.95 FIP over the past week, which has led to a -0.5 fWAR, the second-worst in baseball over the past week. Meanwhile, their team wRC+ of 72 is fourth-worst over the same period of time.
The Astros have the division all but locked up at this point, and the Rangers are 15.5 games off Houston's pace. They're only 4.0 games back for the last AL Wild Card spot, but also have to pass seven teams to get there.