The Slow Start
When a player lands with a new team -- whether it be via trade or free agency -- it's natural to aim for making a solid first impression. It's also natural to think that a few of the new Atlanta Braves pitchers acquired this past winter would like a do-over.
R.A. Dickey and Bartolo Colon are the first ones we think of, but we should also include Jaime Garcia.
His 3.99 ERA through 29.1 innings in April didn't look all that bad, but his 5.11 FIP and 5.24 xFIP showed us he wasn't exactly living up to that first number. Garcia hasn't been a huge strikeout guy throughout his career, but having a strikeout rate (13.5%) that nearly eclipses his walk rate (10.3%) is never a good thing -- especially when he's surrendering hard contact 33.7% of the time.
The Hot Streak
While Dickey and Colon are still struggling to find a groove, Garcia has been in the middle of one for quite some time. He's just 1-3 in his last 6 starts, but it's accompanied by a 2.66 ERA, along with a much more palatable 3.37 FIP and 3.80 xFIP.
What's been the most eye-popping, though, is how the batted-ball profile of hitters he's faced has changed. He's allowing soft contact much less (28.4% in April, 20.3% since May 1st) which isn't ideal, but it's not a huge problem when you see the rest.
The below table shows how his line-drive rate (LD%), ground-ball rate (GB%), fly-ball rate (FB%), and hard-hit rate (Hard%) against have transformed.
| Time Period | LD% | GB% | FB% | Hard% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 22.3% | 43.6% | 34.0% | 33.7% |
| Since May 1st | 12.4% | 67.8% | 19.8% | 19.5% |
That ground-ball rate, though.
To put it in perspective, Garcia has been inducing ground balls and limiting hard contact at a Dallas Keuchel level (67.4% and 20.1%, respectively, in 2017). This not only sheds light on how nasty Keuchel has been, but just how much Garcia's performance has improved after the season's first month.