MLB
Fantasy Baseball: 6 Players Who Have Completely Erased Their Fast Starts
Jeremy Hellickson finished the month of April as one of baseball's best pitchers according to traditional stats, but regression has hit him hard since then. Who else is wishing it was April again?

Chase Headley, 3B, New York Yankees

The Fast Start

The New York Yankees finished the month of April on a historic offensive pace, and third baseman Chase Headley was very much a part of it. Through his first 97 plate appearances of the season, he walked (14.4%) nearly as often as he struck out (19.6%) en route to slashing .301/.402/.494 with a 144 wRC+ and .387 wOBA.

His batted-ball profile also looked solid, as he was hitting fly balls at a decent rate (33.3%) while maximizing the number of line drives off his bat (30.2%) without hitting a ton of ground balls (36.5%). The one concerning part of it all, though, were his quality of contact numbers. He was limiting soft contact at a somewhat decent rate (17.2%), but he also wasn't hitting the ball very hard with a 23.4% hard-hit rate.

As encouraging as this month was, it didn't seem like his Isolated Power (ISO) of .193 or .361 BABIP would stand the test of time. And it didn't.

The Cold Streak

How quickly did Headley come back down to Earth, you ask? Check out the below table, which takes a look at how his wOBA, wRC+, ISO and hard-hit rate (Hard%) has changed since April.

MonthPAwOBAISOHard%wRC+
April97.387.19323.4%144
Since May 1st137.242.08830.7%45


Yikes. This probably isn't at all how he drew it up, and it's probably a little frustrating since he's hitting the ball hard more often. His .273 BABIP looks a little unlucky, but not so much when he's posted a 50.6% ground-ball rate during that time.

He did get the first part right, though. Last season, Headley didn't even record his first extra-base hit until the middle of May and posted a .209 wOBA and 22 wRC+ in April before getting those numbers over .300 and 100, respectively, for the following three months.

His start to 2017 was encouraging, but now with a .240/.321/.370 triple slash, .302 wOBA, and 86 wRC+ through 234 plate appearances and the Yankees still in contention, it seems to be only a matter of time before top prospect Gleyber Torres unseats him at the hot corner.

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