The Astros regain the top spot in our power rankings after getting dethroned by the New York Yankees last week, but it's not like they got there with a stellar performance. Houston went just 3-3 and ascended back to the number-one spot because the Bronx Bombers are in the midst of a six-game losing streak.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Chicago Cubs | 0.27 | 35-34 | 64.4% | +6 |
| 9 | St. Louis Cardinals | 0.28 | 31-37 | 22.4% | +1 |
| 8 | Miami Marlins | 0.51 | 31-37 | 8.8% | +1 |
| 7 | Tampa Bay Rays | 0.61 | 37-36 | 31.4% | -1 |
| 6 | Washington Nationals | 0.94 | 42-29 | 96.3% | -2 |
| 5 | Cleveland Indians | 0.95 | 37-31 | 93.6% | +2 |
| 4 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 1.06 | 44-26 | 91.1% | +1 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 1.59 | 45-26 | 99.6% | 0 |
| 2 | New York Yankees | 1.85 | 38-29 | 88.3% | -1 |
| 1 | Houston Astros | 1.96 | 47-24 | 99.9% | +1 |
Biggest Rise: Chicago Cubs
Here come the Cubs! Well, kinda sorta.
They did go 4-2 this week and the starting staff produced a 0.5 fWAR during that time, but it's been the offense that's woken up. Their 141 wRC+ and .393 wOBA over the past seven days both rank fourth best in baseball, and it's hard to argue where the spark has come from: Anthony Rizzo in the leadoff spot.
Rizzo has only spent six games (28 plate appearances) in this role, but let's just say things are going swell so far -- if you need proof, look no further than his 253 wRC+ and .562 wOBA. Yes, this is a very small sample size and doesn't really mean anything, but he does also rock a 57.1% hard-hit rate and 0.0% soft-hit rate since getting moved up.
The Joe Maddon magic is starting to work again.
Biggest Drop: Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals have a comfy 9.5-game lead in the NL East and have current playoff odds of 96.3%, according to our metrics, so they can afford a rough patch here or there without having to panic much. And with the meat of their offense consisting of a resurgent Ryan Zimmerman to go along with Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, and Anthony Rendon, improving at the dish isn't a priority -- they need to improve on the mound.
Despite a 5.67 ERA and 4.74 FIP over their past 39.2 innings, the rotation is obviously not a problem. At least, it won't be as long as it's anchored by Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. We've already talked about it before, but the Nationals need bullpen help. They've struggled all year in this department, and it's gotten to the point where manager Dusty Baker publicly stated that moves have to be made.
This isn't an area they need to fix to get into the postseason -- there's still a lot of ball left to be played, but they control their own destiny at this point in a weak division. However, if they want to actually win a playoff series and play deep into October, they need to have some reliable relievers to call upon.