There hasn't been a ton of movement here over the past week, but it's still surprising to see some of the teams who have settled into a spot at the bottom.
The San Francisco Giants, Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers, and New York Mets all played October baseball last year. At this point, it'll be surprising if any of them make it back. Even more interesting is that the only team over .500 among the bottom 10 -- the Minnesota Twins -- don't even have the pleasure of owning the highest playoff odds among this group.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Philadelphia Phillies | -1.38 | 22-46 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 29 | San Francisco Giants | -1.10 | 26-46 | 0.0% | -3 |
| 28 | Baltimore Orioles | -1.07 | 34-35 | 5.0% | 0 |
| 27 | San Diego Padres | -0.71 | 28-43 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 26 | Kansas City Royals | -0.65 | 34-35 | 7.6% | +3 |
| 25 | Texas Rangers | -0.55 | 34-35 | 10.6% | -1 |
| 24 | Pittsburgh Pirates | -0.54 | 32-38 | 3.1% | +1 |
| 23 | Detroit Tigers | -0.41 | 32-37 | 9.4% | -1 |
| 22 | New York Mets | -0.32 | 31-38 | 3.0% | -2 |
| 21 | Minnesota Twins | -0.23 | 34-33 | 10.5% | 0 |
Biggest Rise: Kansas City Royals
It may be a little too late to seriously compete for a playoff spot at this point, but the Kansas City Royals have certainly come back to life. While the pitching staff has struck out just 5.45 hitters per nine innings this week, they've limited walks (1.45 walks allowed per nine innings) and have produced a 2.61 ERA, 3.63 FIP and a 6-1 record.
What's taken on more of a transformation, though, is the offense. Kansas City has a team wRC+ of 83 and .301 wOBA so far this season, which is not good. But things have been different over the last 30 days, as those numbers have improved to 102 and .329, respectively. Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, and Lorenzo Cain all have a wRC+ above 140 during this time, helping engineer a turnaround at the plate.
Biggest Drop: San Francisco Giants
We sure didn't expect to see the Giants here this late in the season, right? That's how baseball goes sometimes. They join the sad club that includes the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres as the only teams in baseball that currently have a 0.0% chance of reaching the postseason, according to our metrics.
Their offense hasn't been terrible lately, but for all the good things they've done at the plate, it's been erased on the pitcher's mound. They've lost seven games in a row, have been worth just 0.1 fWAR during that time while producing an unsightly 8.44 ERA as a staff.
Spending time at Coors Field -- which they did this past week -- never helps, but you know what also doesn't help? Having the second-lowest strand rate (60.4%) and the third-lowest ground-ball rate (38.8%) during this rough patch. It looks like they miss Madison Bumgarner just a smidge.